mappy Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 BethsdaBoy returns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 i think the trend of this summer's rain will continue all winter long........as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 lol http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=3&topicid=5731&Itemid=179 I like how the best chances for snow are in January and February. That there is long-range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 lol "Put the NAO and AO in sync and a nice dose of moisture and you lean toward of the historic winter of 2009-2010." I figured you would like my link, so you agree with him i see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 i think the trend of this summer's rain will continue all winter long........as rain. You are going out on the ledge there huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 lol Screen_Shot_2013-07-10_at_11.22.23_AM.png http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=3&topicid=5731&Itemid=179 Missed seeing the link earlier. Not sure where the el nino idea comes from, most guidance I've seen is pointing to a neutral winter. What was his last year call? cold and snowy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Missed seeing the link earlier. Not sure where the el nino idea comes from, most guidance I've seen is pointing to a neutral winter. What was his last year call? cold and snowy? You got it, it was cold and snowy. If i remember correctly he predicted 26.5" for Baltimore and this year he is predicting 28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 You got it, it was cold and snowy. If i remember correctly he predicted 26.5" for Baltimore and this year he is predicting 28" What did Balt get last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 What did Balt get last year? BWI got 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 In roughly 30 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 In roughly 30 events. The same 30 got only 5" for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 The same 30 got only 5" for me Our car tops are clearly superior to your car tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 ?? lol hey old friend. When I was younger, out of my mind and extremely cocky back in the WWBB days, I would definitely make it a tradition to drop a few winter thoughts in July. This coincided with (and helped established a confirmation bias) my string of winter outlook successes in that 2002-2006 period. And then of course I learned I was human after all and smartened up afterwards, haha... But for traditions' sake... 1. I showed a couple of years ago why a downwelling +QBO into the lower stratosphere combined with a cool ENSO can actually favor a more poleward Aleutian High (through wave breaking processes and tropical forcing...this line of thought contradicts conventional QBO-theory, which generally sucks anyway). We don't want ENSO to stay undecided this year (where as last year we got away with it because of the El Niño-like tendency to the pattern just before the heart of the winter). So either the thing warms up and we get some snow/cold that way or we want a decent La Niña-circulation. Both would force the convection into a traditional concise area, limiting the extent of global warmth and allow for some polar blocking at some part of the winter. Unfortunately for you, neutral seems like the best bet right now (which means there is more probability that intraseasonal ENSO-like waves in forcing can time poorly with the calendar and QBO-wave). 2. The state of the general circulation in both hemispheres right now doesn't look too good, however, for a -AO. This doesn't mean it can't change, as you know, and a lot of my summer indicators are still subject to huge changing since they only have data through 7/10 (most of them need data through September). 3. The sun is expected to reach or be around maximum this autumn. This may potentially delay winter again, despite whatever crazy wintery weather we get in autumn this time, and add a general +AO tendency overall. 4. Remember these thoughts are close to useless at this range. I'll try to update you again in another month or so with something entirely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 ^^ longest winter cancel post evar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Winter Cancel 2013 - 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Gotta break it out....HM's popularity poll as of 12:06pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Gotta break it out....HM's popularity poll as of 12:06pm HM pop poll.jpg Looks like he stopped taking his Viagra at 12:06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Vodka cold http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/355881890986733569/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 When New england gets more snow than us I understand, but when Chancellorsville and Midlothian do it really makes me cringe. The primary screws us, then the coastal does also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 22 inches from Winter Storm Lots-O'-Huggin' Bear Bet on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 Winter is coming!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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