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Ridge Builds In - Humidity Sticks Around - Wx Disc


CT Rain

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An ominous storm... but meh.

Compare that video to this...

There is no comparing them. The one south was 100x better. That's not the point. How anyone can watch those videos and tell me that is straight line wind damage and there's no turning is beyond me. Bottom line it goes down as what they call it, and there'd nothing I can do about it except know in my heart what I saw
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There is no comparing them. The one south was 100x better. That's not the point. How anyone can watch those videos and tell me that is straight line wind damage and there's no turning is beyond me. Bottom line it goes down as what they call it, and there'd nothing I can do about it except know in my heart what I saw

 

RFD winds

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Well right, there was probably a lot of motion, but how many times do people see a low scud and claim FC? He probably saw legit turning and thought FC.

Yeah I doubted him initially but then thought he was prob right after hearing of damage. Funnel is still cool.
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I know - that's pretty wild. Thankfully it remained on the weak side. Given the 2 videos I've seen from Storrs/Coventry... with that kind of motion I would have expected the damage to be worse. 

totally impressive and I thought the guys at the field in IJD last night were exaggerating.

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Should we start a separate thread for a discussion on the tornado/microburst?

 

Here are some estimated values at about 21z yesterday...(SPC mesoanalysis...HRRR 21z init.)
STP: 0.13...0.25 (based off of the STP equation, since mesoanalysis doesn't show values that low)

SCP: 3.1...4.4 (based off of the SCP equation...the mesoanalysis value was actually just over 4)

MLCAPE: 1200...1500

EBS: 25...25* (*0-6km approximation)

SRH: 110...200* (0-3km approximation) 

LCL: 600...700 (I use the LCL as an approximation for the MLLCL with these terms)

 

The mean values for tornadoes in Connecticut and surrounding areas...

STP: 0.3

SCP: 3.0

MLCAPE: 1179

EBS: 40

SRH: 139

LCL: 992

(click here for that source graphic)

 

Anyway, the Q-tor (for the lack of a better name) factors in climatological tornado setups in and around Connecticut. I've established equations that will set the mean parameters to 2.5. The least favorable gets set to 0 and a 5 on the scale would mean that the highest value observed in each historical tornado case for the above parameters would have been observed or forecast for a given point. I've never seen a 5 and even the Moore/El Reno, Okla. tornadoes had values of approximately 4.

(0=very low probability of a tornado, 2.5=moderate probability, 5+=extreme probability)

 

The SPC mesoanalysis value was 2.4 and HRRR was 2.7. Both indicate to me that the setup yesterday in northeastern Connecticut was very close to the mean of historical tornadoes in the same area. I use this equation as a gut check...was this a marginal setup? Well, based off of Connecticut's tornado history, it appeared at least moderately favorable. (graphic below is HRRR-based)

post-533-0-25387200-1373578202_thumb.gif

 

Here's a quick look at some recent tornadoes and you'll see the index value ends up being close to 2.5 or slightly higher on average.
post-533-0-32394800-1373578599_thumb.gif

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I will violently disagree with that and I think Joey would too. I saw sheared limbs and treetops and whole trees down and again they were not all laying in one direction. I don't know how they could say that.

 

Yeah, even in the dark I could see that the trees weren't blown in the same direction, especially on Loehr Rd. 

 

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Yeah, even in the dark I could see that the trees weren't blown in the same direction, especially on Loehr Rd. 

 

For them to claim that is simply not true. I think it's a CYA type of thing since it wasn't warned. I saw sheared treetops in several areas, as well as trees twisted..Not simply 50 trees laying NW to SE all snapped off. 

 

I even took a few pics of them

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it's a lot of motion but hard to say much else

That's similar to what I witnessed in Watertown earlier in the afternoon yesterday as some weak/modest rotation was noted on the velocity scans. In the heat of the moment I was sure it was a funnel cloud, but in hindsight after looking at the (poor at best) footage I got, it just appeared to be some very low cloud bases and broad rotation---not to mention plenty of scud as well) It's just unfortunate my sight was partially obscured by trees and it's a challenge to drive around this area and "chase", especially in my case when I have a radar on my phone, I'm trying to record footage with an iPad and video camera, and I'm driving...all at the same time. (end of thought, don't want to hijack the discussion away from northeast Connecticut)

 

What I will say is that the motion in the video Kev keeps posting was more impressive than what I saw, but it is not really conclusive of anything.

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For them to claim that is simply not true. I think it's a CYA type of thing since it wasn't warned. I saw sheared treetops in several areas, as well as trees twisted..Not simply 50 trees laying NW to SE all snapped off. 

 

I even took a few pics of them

I don't think that is the case...They didn't give the cell a Severe Thunderstorm Warning either, so it's a lose-lose for them. If it's not conclusive enough, I don't think it would be fair for them to label it as a tornado.

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Kev, you should do a damage survey/tour of your own and post the findings with some photos...if I felt that strongly about something like that, I'd be sure to do that.

 

The other tip is ALWAYS have your phone or some sort of camera on you when there's even the slightest risk of severe weather.

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For them to claim that is simply not true. I think it's a CYA type of thing since it wasn't warned. I saw sheared treetops in several areas, as well as trees twisted..Not simply 50 trees laying NW to SE all snapped off. 

 

I even took a few pics of them

 

Did you see the survey team today?  You should have shown them the pics/video that you had.  By the time I got there last night it was already dark, so I couldn't get any photos, but I could clearly tell that trees weren't all down in the same direction.  Also, the damage followed a clear path that I drew on the google map this morning.

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sounds like what happened in agawam last week i could have swore it was a tornado that went threw

I will violently disagree with that and I think Joey would too. I saw sheared limbs and treetops and whole trees down and again they were not all laying in one direction. I don't know how they could say that.

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