Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 lol Furey's got 90+next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 8z HRRR begins to develop some convection in the Hudson Valley by late morning and pushes some decent looking storms into SNE/CNE. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. The cold front back over the Great Lakes may be too slow for anything significant east of western PA this evening. That's a long way from SNE. More an event for tomorrow morning than tonight in eastern areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 8z HRRR begins to develop some convection in the Hudson Valley by late morning and pushes some decent looking storms into SNE/CNE. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. The cold front back over the Great Lakes may be too slow for anything significant east of western PA this evening. Today's stuff is prefrontal trough .Tomorrows is cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Furey's got 90+next Tuesday Typical BDL/Hartford summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 That's a long way from SNE. More an event for tomorrow morning than tonight in eastern areas?I haven't looked closely at Thursday wrt severe, but slower timing wouldn't hurt. Music to Kev's ears from BOX: "HEAVY PRECIP MAY ALSO MEAN THE POSSIBILITY OF A WET MICROBURST..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Today's stuff is prefrontal trough .Tomorrows is cold front Any expectation this could have severe? Seems that the only issue will be rain. Edit: thanks Quincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 Today's stuff is prefrontal trough .Tomorrows is cold front Yeah the actual cold front is off to the west but the upper level forcing is pretty legit today. Deep layer shear is very meh so storm organization will suffer. That said - there is a small layer of directional shear in the 0-2km layer so we'll have to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Furey also said we have legit shot in CT at hottest July on record ..which was set in 1994 and 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Dam, camping with my daughter for the first time this weekend, hoping your forecast from yesterday is right Ryan, and wrong today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 If I was on KTOL I'd be more interested about potential severe today than some typical summer heat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 Dam, camping with my daughter for the first time this weekend, hoping your forecast from yesterday is right Ryan, and wrong today! Won't be a washout... just some pop up storms in the afternoon. I'd rather camp in that than 95 and humid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Furey also said we have legit shot in CT at hottest July on record ..which was set in 1994 and 2010 I think that's a pretty bizarre statement to make when you're only a 1/3 of the way into the month. Is there a context to that statement that you're leaving out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Won't be a washout... just some pop up storms in the afternoon. I'd rather camp in that than 95 and humid lol Amen. I literally only camp in the Spring and Fall. I made the mistake of camping down the Cape years ago on the 4th with Tds of 74. Oh yeah...it thundered that night and soaked everything. Agree about the weekend too. Maybe a stratus threat SE MA or Cape Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I think you will need a major shift north of the heat ridge to challenge hottest July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 Amen. I literally only camp in the Spring and Fall. I made the mistake of camping down the Cape years ago on the 4th with Tds of 74. Oh yeah...it thundered that night and soaked everything. Agree about the weekend too. Maybe a stratus threat SE MA or Cape Saturday. Lapse rates really steepen too... nearly 6.5-7.0 c/km 500-700mb on the GFS so with the July sun that does have me worried for some pretty big downpours on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 I think you will need a major shift north of the heat ridge to challenge hottest July. Yeah I don't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Won't be a washout... just some pop up storms in the afternoon. I'd rather camp in that than 95 and humid lol My worst camping experience was taking my then two-year old daughter to Mt. Blue State Park in Maine. The p/c has slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with rainfall amounts of "less than a tenth of an inch". We had just gotten the tent set up and the fire started when there was a slight rumble in the distance on a sunny afternoon. My wife and daughter went to explore the campground while I continued to unpack. Quickly clouded over with rain thunder and lightning moving in very fast. Wife and daughter return and we go into the car for safety. It's coming down in torrents, dousing the fire which was pretty blazing by that point. I then realize I hadn't zipped the roof flap of the tent. I run out to do so. It pours for about 90 minutes. Finally it lets up. All our sleeping bags, blankets pillow are soaked. There's no fire. We would have just gone to a hotel had there been any nearby. Instead, we buy more wood to restart the fire and start drying blankets etc. over the fire. Managed to get a dry spot for our daughter with blankets. My wife and I hardly sleeping on a muddy ground with damp blankets. Worst time ever, but we laugh about it today. We've gone to cabin sites since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Yeah it's lining up to be a solidly above normal July but nothing to challenge monthly heat records at the sne climo sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 My worst camping experience was taking my then two-year old daughter to Mt. Blue State Park in Maine. The p/c has slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with rainfall amounts of "less than a tenth of an inch". We had just gotten the tent set up and the fire started when there was a slight rumble in the distance on a sunny afternoon. My wife and daughter went to explore the campground while I continued to unpack. Quickly clouded over with rain thunder and lightning moving in very fast. Wife and daughter return and we go into the car for safety. It's coming down in torrents, dousing the fire which was pretty blazing by that point. I then realize I hadn't zipped the roof flap of the tent. I run out to do so. It pours for about 90 minutes. Finally it lets up. All our sleeping bags, blankets pillow are soaked. There's no fire. We would have just gone to a hotel had there been any nearby. Instead, we buy more wood to restart the fire and start drying blankets etc. over the fire. Managed to get a dry spot for our daughter with blankets. My wife and I hardly sleeping on a muddy ground with damp blankets. Worst time ever, but we laugh about it today. We've gone to cabin sites since. Lol.... I remember doing a similar camping trip when my oldest (now 35) was a little tyke. The worst though was failing to dig a rain ditch around the tent when I was at the 12,000 foot trail camp at the base of Mt. Whitney. A night full of storms with hail meant sleeping bags sloshing around in ice water....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 If I was on KTOL I'd be more interested about potential severe today than some typical summer heat next week. Other than a stray wet micro today..I'm not excited for severe.. Hopefully there's wild lightning though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Lol.... I remember doing a similar camping trip when my oldest (now 35) was a little tyke. The worst though was failing to dig a rain ditch around the tent when I was at the 12,000 foot trail camp at the base of Mt. Whitney. A night full of storms with hail meant sleeping bags sloshing around in ice water....lol. LOL--classic!! I keep a couple of the fleece blankets from that trip in the car for emergency and passenger naps.. They have holes singed into them from our drying technique over the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Other than a stray wet micro today..I'm not excited for severe.. Hopefully there's wild lightning though I'd have a better shot of seeing that at home than I will on the north shore--I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 The WRF has a pretty nasty looking line move through into western MA/CT between like 2-4 PM today then rapidly weakens then another batch during the evening which weakens. Do have to watch this I think b/c the NAM at least moves a piece of energy overhead early in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 It blows all the shear and steep lapse rates are post frontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Overnight low of 58°F. Current temp is 60°F. SPLENDID! Hoping the thunderstorms along the cold front Thursday afternoon come to fruition here on the midcoast. Been quite some time since a decent thunderstorm occured here. Some distant thunder last week, but really no severe yet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 The WRF has a pretty nasty looking line move through into western MA/CT between like 2-4 PM today then rapidly weakens then another batch during the evening which weakens. Do have to watch this I think b/c the NAM at least moves a piece of energy overhead early in the afternoon.The HRRR is very similar here. Also notice a lobe of pretty decent VV's around mid-afternoon. I think things could get interesting for a few. For tomorrow, there may be a small window for isolated severe along and east of the CT River valley. Timing and daytime heating will be key. Basically looks like a "see-textish" day today and possibly tomorrow. Just hope things come together just right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 The HRRR is very similar here. Also notice a lobe of pretty decent VV's around mid-afternoon. I think things could get interesting for a few. For tomorrow, there may be a small window for isolated severe along and east of the CT River valley. Timing and daytime heating will be key. Basically looks like a "see-textish" day today and possibly tomorrow. Just hope things come together just right! Quincy, can you post HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Wow what a brutal torch on the Euro. Talk dirty to me! Any other model support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 Talk dirty to me! Any other model support? I was joking about it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 The HRRR is very similar here. Also notice a lobe of pretty decent VV's around mid-afternoon. I think things could get interesting for a few. For tomorrow, there may be a small window for isolated severe along and east of the CT River valley. Timing and daytime heating will be key. Basically looks like a "see-textish" day today and possibly tomorrow. Just hope things come together just right! Yeah we could have a window today with some interesting storms...but they will certainly be pulsers. Agreed about tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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