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Ridge Builds In - Humidity Sticks Around - Wx Disc


CT Rain

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8z HRRR begins to develop some convection in the Hudson Valley by late morning and pushes some decent looking storms into SNE/CNE.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

The cold front back over the Great Lakes may be too slow for anything significant east of western PA this evening.

 

That's a long way from SNE.  More an event for tomorrow morning than tonight in eastern areas?

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8z HRRR begins to develop some convection in the Hudson Valley by late morning and pushes some decent looking storms into SNE/CNE.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

The cold front back over the Great Lakes may be too slow for anything significant east of western PA this evening.

Today's stuff is prefrontal trough .Tomorrows is cold front

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That's a long way from SNE. More an event for tomorrow morning than tonight in eastern areas?

I haven't looked closely at Thursday wrt severe, but slower timing wouldn't hurt.

Music to Kev's ears from BOX: "HEAVY PRECIP MAY ALSO MEAN THE POSSIBILITY OF A WET MICROBURST..."

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Today's stuff is prefrontal trough .Tomorrows is cold front

 

Yeah the actual cold front is off to the west but the upper level forcing is pretty legit today. 

 

Deep layer shear is very meh so storm organization will suffer. That said - there is a small layer of directional shear in the 0-2km layer so we'll have to watch that. 

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Dam, camping with my daughter for the first time this weekend, hoping your forecast from yesterday is right Ryan, and wrong today!

 

Won't be a washout... just some pop up storms in the afternoon. I'd rather camp in that than 95 and humid lol

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Won't be a washout... just some pop up storms in the afternoon. I'd rather camp in that than 95 and humid lol

 

Amen. I literally only camp in the Spring and Fall. I made the mistake of camping down the Cape years ago on the 4th with Tds of 74. Oh yeah...it thundered that night and soaked everything.

 

Agree about the weekend too. Maybe a stratus threat SE MA or Cape Saturday.

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Amen. I literally only camp in the Spring and Fall. I made the mistake of camping down the Cape years ago on the 4th with Tds of 74. Oh yeah...it thundered that night and soaked everything.

 

Agree about the weekend too. Maybe a stratus threat SE MA or Cape Saturday.

 

Lapse rates really steepen too... nearly 6.5-7.0 c/km 500-700mb on the GFS so with the July sun that does have me worried for some pretty big downpours on Saturday. 

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Won't be a washout... just some pop up storms in the afternoon. I'd rather camp in that than 95 and humid lol

 

My worst camping experience was taking my then two-year old daughter to Mt. Blue State Park in Maine.  The p/c has slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with rainfall amounts of "less than a tenth of an inch".  We had just gotten the tent set up and the fire started when there was a slight rumble in the distance on a sunny afternoon.  My wife and daughter went to explore the campground while I continued to unpack. 

 

Quickly clouded over with rain thunder and lightning moving in very fast.   Wife and daughter return and we go into the car for safety.  It's coming down in torrents, dousing the fire which was pretty blazing by that point.  I then realize I hadn't zipped the roof flap of the tent.  I run out to do so.  It pours for about 90 minutes.  Finally it lets up.  All our sleeping bags, blankets pillow are soaked.  There's no fire.  We would have just gone to a hotel had there been any nearby.  Instead, we buy more wood to restart the fire and start drying blankets etc. over the fire.  Managed to get a dry spot for our daughter with blankets.  My wife and I hardly sleeping on a muddy ground with damp blankets. 

 

Worst time ever, but we laugh about it today.  We've gone to cabin sites since.

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My worst camping experience was taking my then two-year old daughter to Mt. Blue State Park in Maine.  The p/c has slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with rainfall amounts of "less than a tenth of an inch".  We had just gotten the tent set up and the fire started when there was a slight rumble in the distance on a sunny afternoon.  My wife and daughter went to explore the campground while I continued to unpack. 

 

Quickly clouded over with rain thunder and lightning moving in very fast.   Wife and daughter return and we go into the car for safety.  It's coming down in torrents, dousing the fire which was pretty blazing by that point.  I then realize I hadn't zipped the roof flap of the tent.  I run out to do so.  It pours for about 90 minutes.  Finally it lets up.  All our sleeping bags, blankets pillow are soaked.  There's no fire.  We would have just gone to a hotel had there been any nearby.  Instead, we buy more wood to restart the fire and start drying blankets etc. over the fire.  Managed to get a dry spot for our daughter with blankets.  My wife and I hardly sleeping on a muddy ground with damp blankets. 

 

Worst time ever, but we laugh about it today.  We've gone to cabin sites since.

Lol....

I remember doing a similar camping trip when my oldest (now 35) was a little tyke. The worst though was failing to dig a rain ditch around the tent when I was at the 12,000 foot trail camp at the base of Mt. Whitney. A night full of storms with hail meant sleeping bags sloshing around in ice water....lol.

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Lol....

I remember doing a similar camping trip when my oldest (now 35) was a little tyke. The worst though was failing to dig a rain ditch around the tent when I was at the 12,000 foot trail camp at the base of Mt. Whitney. A night full of storms with hail meant sleeping bags sloshing around in ice water....lol.

 

 

LOL--classic!!  I keep a couple of the fleece blankets from that trip in the car for emergency and passenger naps..  They have holes singed into them from our drying technique over the fire.

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The WRF has a pretty nasty looking line move through into western MA/CT between like 2-4 PM today then rapidly weakens then another batch during the evening which weakens. Do have to watch this I think b/c the NAM at least moves a piece of energy overhead early in the afternoon.

The HRRR is very similar here. Also notice a lobe of pretty decent VV's around mid-afternoon. I think things could get interesting for a few.

For tomorrow, there may be a small window for isolated severe along and east of the CT River valley. Timing and daytime heating will be key.

Basically looks like a "see-textish" day today and possibly tomorrow. Just hope things come together just right!

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The HRRR is very similar here. Also notice a lobe of pretty decent VV's around mid-afternoon. I think things could get interesting for a few.

For tomorrow, there may be a small window for isolated severe along and east of the CT River valley. Timing and daytime heating will be key.

Basically looks like a "see-textish" day today and possibly tomorrow. Just hope things come together just right!

Quincy, can you post HRRR

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The HRRR is very similar here. Also notice a lobe of pretty decent VV's around mid-afternoon. I think things could get interesting for a few.

For tomorrow, there may be a small window for isolated severe along and east of the CT River valley. Timing and daytime heating will be key.

Basically looks like a "see-textish" day today and possibly tomorrow. Just hope things come together just right!

 

Yeah we could have a window today with some interesting storms...but they will certainly be pulsers.

 

Agreed about tomorrow as well. 

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