Baroclinic Zone Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Looks like some stuff starting to develop in SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 The earlier batch of clouds/showers over DCA/BWI that fizzled toward Philly appeared to be from a weak vort/shortwave out ahead of the main closed low. That's producing some QG forcing over SNE now and where you have some sfc convergence and better instability in NE Mass/S NH it's popping some showers. Behind it though there's going to be a period of subsidence that should put a lid on stuff until the better QG forcing moves in later? Yeah good observation. The stuff later on is almost in the COL or throat of the trough...like a mini deformation area. At least it reminded me of that. I guess you'll have to watch to see how that area from NCTRL PA into NY state pops this aftn. That's the forcing zone that pushes east, although remains to be seen what will exist in the evening as it moves east. What a PITA shift I have. Every terminal I have including halfway across the world has weather. It's frustrating not to be able to analyze like I normally do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Daily meh for severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Daily meh for severe That's the norm. I always say to self- would love to see outbreak of EF3's. Massive destruction, but never ever state it though....oops Can a person get a Mulligan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 big puffy cumulous starting to build quickly here in Marlborough, starting to pop along the BDF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 big puffy cumulous starting to build quickly here in Marlborough, starting to pop along the BDF? Would appear so. You may get something to develop there. BDF does not lookm like it's made much progress from BOS S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Would appear so. You may get something to develop there. BDF does not lookm like it's made much progress from BOS S. Definitely a little better here in the city at Northeastern. OWD still 87/75 and MQE 81/72 at noon. Hope the BDF is able to push thru there by the time I head home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 I'm beginning to think areas SW of BOS may be under the gun this aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 BOX &&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...1030 AM UPDATE...OVERALL THINKING OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. HAVEUPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS IN TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ANDPOP COVERAGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWERS THAT A WEAKBOUNDARY...PERHAPS OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION IS MOVINGSOUTHWARD TOWARDS SNE. IN FACT WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NE AT MHT/LWMAND BVY. BELIEVE THIS WILL MAKE BOSTON WITHIN THE HOUR. THEREFOREBOSTONS HEAT WAVE WILL END YESTERDAY AS THE NE WINDS WILL BRINGTHE COOLER AIR OFF FORM THE WATERS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S. OTHERFACTOR FOR TODAY IS THE SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL. WITH RELATIVELYLIGHT WINDS ALOFT...EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. SO NOW THERE ARE2 MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS ON.SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH TOWARDS SNE TODAY BEING THE MAIN FORCE FORCONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEPUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THATOVER 1500 J/KG SB CAPE IS ALREADY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NE MASSAS WELL AS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE. BETTER SHEAR VECTORS ARE ACROSSTHE N SHORE AND OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL 20-30 KTSOVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INAND EXPECT NEAR 2 BY THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL OFTHESE COMBINED AS WELL AS THE 2 BOUNDARIES BELIEVE IT COULD BE ANACTIVE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDINGFOR GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW ISOLATEDPOTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK AT THISTIME. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING...BUT THEBETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AROUND 1-3 PM.FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN AS STORMS MAY TRAIN A LITTLE.HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE BETTER POTENTIAL FORTHE STRONG STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE MASS AS WELLS NH.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 OWD still 87/75 and MQE 81/72 at noon.Those are some sick low level lapse rates, That's like 10F per 1000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 That 81 at noon was probably behind the coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 I'm beginning to think areas SW of BOS may be under the gun this aftn. Everything is shifting south. Boundary is sagging more than progged up this way and we've been dropped from the FFW up here in the northern Greens: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 That 81 at noon was probably behind the coastal front. Yeah considering ORH at 1,000 feet to the west was 82F at noontime, there was almost certainly a bit of marine contamination at MQE...OWD is southwest of MQE so they probably avoided marine taint so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 That 81 at noon was probably behind the coastal front. Ahh that would make more sense...while OWD was on the warm side of the BDF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Sea breeze is through here at blue hill. Mqe asos is now reading 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Ahh that would make more sense...while OWD was on the warm side of the BDF. The warm side of the front ain't that bad, tpical summer day. Light breeze--hopefully that'll pick up a smidge to nullify the dews. 80.1/68 Edit: there's the breeze. Figured it was just a matter of time--80% of the time we get a nice afternoon breeze, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 The warm side of the front ain't that bad, tpical summer day. Light breeze--hopefully that'll pick up a smidge to nullify the dews. 80.1/68 Edit: there's the breeze. Figured it was just a matter of time--80% of the time we get a nice afternoon breeze, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 This ones for Wiz. Surface based CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Congrats Bob on 90 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 HFD and BDL will tickle 90 as well. 89 at HFD now and 87 BDL. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Sea breeze is through here at blue hill. Mqe asos is now reading 79 OWD now 82/75. Wind NE@9! Progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 HFD and BDL will tickle 90 as well. 89 at HFD now and 87 BDL. Wow Nothing unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Nothing unheard of.Pretty insane departures for the month to date at all 4. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Congrats Bob on 90 again. 5 days in a row now. Only hit 88F on Wed. HRRR develops some stuff later on SW of BOS as I suspected. Looks associated with the energy coming off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 I just got backdoored. Spiked to 91.8 just prior now down to 89.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Pretty insane departures for the month to date at all 4. Wow Bun it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 No thunder, but cell just w of mht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Pretty insane departures for the month to date at all 4. Wow There have been too many months to count in winter and summer over the past ten years that have started a month with a +8 or a +10 type deal in the first week. Heck in June the first three days were like +15 and we finished the month below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 HFD and BDL will tickle 90 as well. 89 at HFD now and 87 BDL. WowHow many record highs have been set over the past two weeks? I haven't really been paying attention to that.Hopefully our once in a lifetime warmth is setting records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 HFD and BDL will tickle 90 as well. 89 at HFD now and 87 BDL. Wow You'd be wearing a shawl and bitching about no heat if you lived in GC. 79.6/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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