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Ridge Builds In - Humidity Sticks Around - Wx Disc


CT Rain

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The earlier batch of clouds/showers over DCA/BWI that fizzled toward Philly appeared to be from a weak vort/shortwave out ahead of the main closed low. That's producing some QG forcing over SNE now and where you have some sfc convergence and better instability in NE Mass/S NH it's popping some showers. Behind it though there's going to be a period of subsidence that should put a lid on stuff until the better QG forcing moves in later?

 

Yeah good observation. The stuff later on is almost in the COL or throat of the trough...like a mini deformation area. At least it reminded me of that. I guess you'll have to watch to see how that area from NCTRL PA into NY state pops this aftn. That's the forcing zone that pushes east, although remains to be seen what will exist in the evening as it moves east.

 

What a PITA shift I have. Every terminal I have including halfway across the world has weather. It's frustrating not to be able to analyze like I normally do.

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BOX

 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL THINKING OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. HAVE
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS IN TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS AND
POP COVERAGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWERS THAT A WEAK
BOUNDARY...PERHAPS OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SNE. IN FACT WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NE AT MHT/LWM
AND BVY. BELIEVE THIS WILL MAKE BOSTON WITHIN THE HOUR. THEREFORE
BOSTONS HEAT WAVE WILL END YESTERDAY AS THE NE WINDS WILL BRING
THE COOLER AIR OFF FORM THE WATERS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S. OTHER
FACTOR FOR TODAY IS THE SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL. WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. SO NOW THERE ARE
2 MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS ON.

SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH TOWARDS SNE TODAY BEING THE MAIN FORCE FOR
CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
OVER 1500 J/KG SB CAPE IS ALREADY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NE MASS
AS WELL AS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE. BETTER SHEAR VECTORS ARE ACROSS
THE N SHORE AND OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL 20-30 KTS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 IN
AND EXPECT NEAR 2 BY THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL OF
THESE COMBINED AS WELL AS THE 2 BOUNDARIES BELIEVE IT COULD BE AN
ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING
FOR GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW ISOLATED
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK AT THIS
TIME. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AROUND 1-3 PM.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN AS STORMS MAY TRAIN A LITTLE.
HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
THE STRONG STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE MASS AS WELL
S NH.


&&

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That 81 at noon was probably behind the coastal front.

 

Yeah considering ORH at 1,000 feet to the west was 82F at noontime, there was almost certainly a bit of marine contamination at MQE...OWD is southwest of MQE so they probably avoided marine taint so far.

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Ahh that would make more sense...while OWD was on the warm side of the BDF.

 

The warm side of the front ain't that bad, tpical summer day.  Light breeze--hopefully that'll pick up a smidge to nullify the dews.

 

80.1/68

 

Edit:  there's the breeze.  Figured it was just a matter of time--80% of the time we get a nice afternoon breeze, ftw.

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Pretty insane departures for the month to date at all 4. Wow

There have been too many months to count in winter and summer over the past ten years that have started a month with a +8 or a +10 type deal in the first week.

Heck in June the first three days were like +15 and we finished the month below normal.

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