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Ridge Builds In - Humidity Sticks Around - Wx Disc


CT Rain

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Given the poor lapse rates (most of the area has been worked over so to speak) I wouldn't expect severe, but given the 2000 J/kg MUCAPE I could see a really nice light show for somebody. Along with heavy rain of course.

 

Edit: Now seeing some spots of 3000 across SNE (via RAPv2 mesoanalysis).

 

Light show would be awesome!

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Given the poor lapse rates (most of the area has been worked over so to speak) I wouldn't expect severe, but given the 2000 J/kg MUCAPE I could see a really nice light show for somebody. Along with heavy rain of course.

 

Edit: Now seeing some spots of 3000 across SNE (via RAPv2 mesoanalysis).

 

The models do steepen lapse rates down this way during the evening and overnight...GFS bufkit at BDL has 750-500 increasing to around 6.5 C/KM which isn't bad and with some cooling aloft that could help with keeping things on the more unstable side.

 

Those MUcapes though will def help with a nice light show later on!

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I saw the HFD storm described here as a supercell. Can a supercell be a pulse storm? Does a supercell dissipate in 1/2 hour? Serious questions.

 

It had some pretty legit mid level rotation for a period of time. Fairly impressive for a few volume scans. Wasn't "classic" by any means but certainly a transient supercell. 

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I saw the HFD storm described here as a supercell. Can a supercell be a pulse storm? Does a supercell dissipate in 1/2 hour? Serious questions.

 

Probably more accurate to say supercellular characteristics or transient supercell structure, like SPC does. But a few of those cells today where legitimately strong mesos, which is really the only requirement to call it a supercell.

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melt melt melt all the way down

I've had pretty good luck with some of those methods you describe and just good old fashioned scientific guessing. I usually like to look for that dry pocket at H5 to hint at possibility for larger hail thanks to evaporatonal cooling and steepening lapse rates, but where we are is obviously different. GR2 really allows for good guesses thanks to the suite of products. Today looked like meh hail except for those that utilize the 2500ML CAPE. Tomorrow screams dime to nickels for some because we still won't have fat CAPE but it will be colder aloft. Can't lose with cold pockets.

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I've had pretty good luck with some of those methods you describe and just good old fashioned scientific guessing. I usually like to look for that dry pocket at H5 to hint at possibility for larger hail thanks to evaporatonal cooling and steepening lapse rates, but where we are is obviously different. GR2 really allows for good guesses thanks to the suite of products. Today looked like meh hail except for those that utilize the 2500ML CAPE. Tomorrow screams dime to nickels for some because we still won't have fat CAPE but it will be colder aloft. Can't lose with cold pockets.

like this? AIRDIRE AB1373240703402.jpg
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Well ...dews are between 78 and 80 in SNE..LOL.. It's safe tp say this is and has been the most humid period of any of our lifetimes. I'd like to see someone try and argue against that

 

Who has a dew of 80?  lol

 

Today marks two weeks where the low temp at BDL has been 67 or above... impressive stretch but still a long way to go for anything historic.

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