joey2002 Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Given the poor lapse rates (most of the area has been worked over so to speak) I wouldn't expect severe, but given the 2000 J/kg MUCAPE I could see a really nice light show for somebody. Along with heavy rain of course. Edit: Now seeing some spots of 3000 across SNE (via RAPv2 mesoanalysis). Light show would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2013 Author Share Posted July 7, 2013 It was interesting that today it had more muted instability but stronger shear than the RAP. It seems to have lower sb/ml CAPE than the default RAP and matches observed 00z/12z soundings a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Given the poor lapse rates (most of the area has been worked over so to speak) I wouldn't expect severe, but given the 2000 J/kg MUCAPE I could see a really nice light show for somebody. Along with heavy rain of course. Edit: Now seeing some spots of 3000 across SNE (via RAPv2 mesoanalysis). The models do steepen lapse rates down this way during the evening and overnight...GFS bufkit at BDL has 750-500 increasing to around 6.5 C/KM which isn't bad and with some cooling aloft that could help with keeping things on the more unstable side. Those MUcapes though will def help with a nice light show later on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 That's where it's at. Seems better and more reasonable than the default. I keep forgetting to switch over to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 BTW - please no cut-off hell next weekend. I'm camping at Watkins Glen with a bunch of friends for the Finger Lakes Winefest. That would be hellish with rounds of +TSRA. Heavy, heavy cork popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Light show would be awesome! Usually those big MUCAPE values are good for that anvil crawler, spidering stuff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2013 Author Share Posted July 7, 2013 Heavy, heavy cork popping. Bottles fine.... cap not fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 I saw the HFD storm described here as a supercell. Can a supercell be a pulse storm? Does a supercell dissipate in 1/2 hour? Serious questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Steve says pattern change coming based on op Euro I guesswrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2013 Author Share Posted July 7, 2013 I saw the HFD storm described here as a supercell. Can a supercell be a pulse storm? Does a supercell dissipate in 1/2 hour? Serious questions. It had some pretty legit mid level rotation for a period of time. Fairly impressive for a few volume scans. Wasn't "classic" by any means but certainly a transient supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 I saw the HFD storm described here as a supercell. Can a supercell be a pulse storm? Does a supercell dissipate in 1/2 hour? Serious questions. Probably more accurate to say supercellular characteristics or transient supercell structure, like SPC does. But a few of those cells today where legitimately strong mesos, which is really the only requirement to call it a supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 It had some pretty legit mid level rotation for a period of time. Fairly impressive for a few volume scans. Wasn't "classic" by any means but certainly a transient supercell.Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Probably more accurate to say supercellular characteristics or transient supercell structure, like SPC does. But a few of those cells today where legitimately strong mesos, which is really the only requirement to call it a supercell.Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Usually those big MUCAPE values are good for that anvil crawler, spidering stuff too. Nice, I absolutely love those! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 melt melt melt all the way down I've had pretty good luck with some of those methods you describe and just good old fashioned scientific guessing. I usually like to look for that dry pocket at H5 to hint at possibility for larger hail thanks to evaporatonal cooling and steepening lapse rates, but where we are is obviously different. GR2 really allows for good guesses thanks to the suite of products. Today looked like meh hail except for those that utilize the 2500ML CAPE. Tomorrow screams dime to nickels for some because we still won't have fat CAPE but it will be colder aloft. Can't lose with cold pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 OWD had a td of 79 a little while ago Holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nate Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 OWD had a td of 79 a little while ago Holy crap Local station 0.3 miles away has DP of 77. Don't know what it is right here, but it is stand still and sweat type humidity outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 I've had pretty good luck with some of those methods you describe and just good old fashioned scientific guessing. I usually like to look for that dry pocket at H5 to hint at possibility for larger hail thanks to evaporatonal cooling and steepening lapse rates, but where we are is obviously different. GR2 really allows for good guesses thanks to the suite of products. Today looked like meh hail except for those that utilize the 2500ML CAPE. Tomorrow screams dime to nickels for some because we still won't have fat CAPE but it will be colder aloft. Can't lose with cold pockets.like this? AIRDIRE AB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Genny in July..........waited a bit for power to come back but CLP says 9pm now....frig was going and I couldn't take the heat so I busted it out....whatever....1475 out in West Hartford Edit: Omen for September? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Local station 0.3 miles away has DP of 77. Don't know what it is right here, but it is stand still and sweat type humidity outside. HFD dew point up to 78!!! That must be close to a record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Well ...dews are between 78 and 80 in SNE..LOL.. It's safe tp say this is and has been the most humid period of any of our lifetimes. I'd like to see someone try and argue against that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 I pulled off a "where people live" dew point of 79F this morning at 1030 and a peak "where people live" heat index of 111F at 230 pm. LOL...YES!!!!! The only left in disagreement is Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 BTW - please no cut-off hell next weekend. I'm camping at Watkins Glen with a bunch of friends for the Finger Lakes Winefest. That would be hellish with rounds of +TSRA. Agree..taking fam to Yankee Stadium on Saturday..80 dews are fine..just no rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Big storms in N NJ heading NE..Hope they can hold their own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Well ...dews are between 78 and 80 in SNE..LOL.. It's safe tp say this is and has been the most humid period of any of our lifetimes. I'd like to see someone try and argue against thatOk maybe a little research http://www.gammathetaupsilon.org/the-geographical-bulletin/1990s/volume40-1/article6.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Well ...dews are between 78 and 80 in SNE..LOL.. It's safe tp say this is and has been the most humid period of any of our lifetimes. I'd like to see someone try and argue against that KFIT is at 69F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 like this? AIRDIRE AB Saw that... incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Ok maybe a little research http://www.gammathetaupsilon.org/the-geographical-bulletin/1990s/volume40-1/article6.pdf 91/80 at ORH must have felt swell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Well ...dews are between 78 and 80 in SNE..LOL.. It's safe tp say this is and has been the most humid period of any of our lifetimes. I'd like to see someone try and argue against that Who has a dew of 80? lol Today marks two weeks where the low temp at BDL has been 67 or above... impressive stretch but still a long way to go for anything historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 KFIT is at 69FThe station closest to him has a DP of 73, he is back to using BDL which is 81/78, death defying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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