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Ridge Builds In - Humidity Sticks Around - Wx Disc


CT Rain

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It's just so hard to get large hail with such warm temps aloft. You have a warm layer nearly 15,000 feet deep and it's just moist throughout. So you don't even get the evaporational cooling assist to keep hailstones from melting as they fall.

 

Yeah you can have a giant hail dual pol sig and a fat TBSS and get stuck with dimes at the ground. I loved a lot of the dual pol training on hail from WDTB but there are so many more variables that go into "slam dunk svr hail" in this part of the country. 

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Yeah you can have a giant hail dual pol sig and a fat TBSS and get stuck with dimes at the ground. I loved a lot of the dual pol training on hail from WDTB but there are so many more variables that go into "slam dunk svr hail" in this part of the country. 

 

With dual-pol and super res data, we're seeing a lot more TBSSs than we used to. So it's a work in process to recalibrate which ones are indicative of severe hail and which are just a bunch of wet half inch hail.

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With dual-pol and super res data, we're seeing a lot more TBSSs than we used to. So it's a work in process to recalibrate which ones are indicative of severe hail and which are just a bunch of wet half inch hail.

 

Yeah there are a lot of 1 radial TBSSs that are sort of meh... but the monster ones spanning a bunch of radials still seem pretty good indicators. That said... height of TBSS and the profile (i.e. deep/moist adiabatic below the TBSS) probably makes a big difference. I would like to see some nice New England research now with dual pol/super res about hail size with new products available.

 

At the end of the day... things like BWERs/strong storm top divergence/strong mid level mesos are still pretty good proxys for which storms are legit and which ones are dead tree branch/exaggerated peas. 

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Yeah there are a lot of 1 radial TBSSs that are sort of meh... but the monster ones spanning a bunch of radials still seem pretty good indicators. That said... height of TBSS and the profile (i.e. deep/moist adiabatic below the TBSS) probably makes a big difference. I would like to see some nice New England research now with dual pol/super res about hail size with new products available.

 

At the end of the day... things like BWERs/strong storm top divergence/strong mid level mesos are still pretty good proxys for which storms are legit and which ones are dead tree branch/exaggerated peas. 

 

The last couple of days have still been a little surprising. 50 dBZ heights over 40 kft and still not getting severe hail reports, or just barely squeezing out 1".

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But maybe that's a reporting bias?

 

I think it atones to very high heights/thickness...   Wet bulb 0 is anomalously high, too high up for pulse cells to produce big hail.  Need a supercell to sustain an updraft and produce larger stones that way.  

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Well that's what I mean by reporting bias. Phones don't ring so nothing happened. Yet if you make a few phone calls all of a sudden you find severe hail.

 

Sometimes it really pays off to make phone calls.  

 

There have been a few times I've even found 1'' or even larger just from calling like a gas station lol.

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Sometimes it really pays off to make phone calls.  

 

There have been a few times I've even found 1'' or even larger just from calling like a gas station lol.

 

Gas stations (because of the awning) and car dealerships for hail. Places like a golf course are great for trees down.

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LAter on could be a bit interesting with that stuff heading in from PA...models keep it very unstable and vertical shear increases as well.

 

It seems that models want to key on western SNE into southern NH for that remnant MCV to track, continuing thunderstorms there. That could put down some heavy rainfall, ahead of more expected tomorrow.

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It seems that models want to key on western SNE into southern NH for that remnant MCV to track, continuing thunderstorms there. That could put down some heavy rainfall, ahead of more expected tomorrow.

 

Have to think this stuff holds and we see even a threat for an isolated strong to severe storm tonight across western sections.  

 

Some spots between tonight and tomorrow though are going to see quite some rain totals.

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Have to think this stuff holds and we see even a threat for an isolated strong to severe storm tonight across western sections.  

 

Some spots between tonight and tomorrow though are going to see quite some rain totals.

 

Given the poor lapse rates (most of the area has been worked over so to speak) I wouldn't expect severe, but given the 2000 J/kg MUCAPE I could see a really nice light show for somebody. Along with heavy rain of course.

 

Edit: Now seeing some spots of 3000 across SNE (via RAPv2 mesoanalysis).

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Given the poor lapse rates (most of the area has been worked over so to speak) I wouldn't expect severe, but given the 2000 J/kg MUCAPE I could see a really nice light show for somebody. Along with heavy rain of course.

 

Edit: Now seeing some spots of 3000 across SNE (via RAPv2 mesoanalysis).

 

That's where it's at. Seems better and more reasonable than the default. 

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