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Ridge Builds In - Humidity Sticks Around - Wx Disc


CT Rain

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Good candid sort of disco from WTB, 

 

 "..ALTHOUGH THE SIZZLE OF SUMMER MAY BE PRESENT...CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS STRESSFUL THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS. THE
HEAT INDEX MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE THE HEAT
INDEX BRIEFLY REACH 100. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SLOW THE SIZZLE AND KEEP EITHER
THE MAGNITUDE OR THE DURATION BELOW THE LEVEL NEEDED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY..." 

 

I think it was brief reprieve for areas along Rt 2, though. ALB's DP back to 72 last hour, and FIT popped back to 70.  Looking over the last several hours, the DPs have been rising from west to east this morning.  850s still support 90 everywhere, so where it clears ... barring convective clouds the temp should respond.  Having said that, I really haven't been impressed by the advisory verification.  A few HIs of 100 year and there, but really not that ubiquitous.  I suppose that doesn't matter.  This has not even been a Big Heat event... though there were a few 95 and 96s on one afternoon.  It's a deal where the HIs are like 98 unrelenting, so what's the sensible difference.

 

Nice clearing has evolved.  Thunderstorms should get an assist for having heights slightly lowered -- already rad shows a blip or two out around CEF.   

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Good candid sort of disco from WTB, 

 

 "..ALTHOUGH THE SIZZLE OF SUMMER MAY BE PRESENT...CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS STRESSFUL THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS. THE

HEAT INDEX MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE THE HEAT

INDEX BRIEFLY REACH 100. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL

FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SLOW THE SIZZLE AND KEEP EITHER

THE MAGNITUDE OR THE DURATION BELOW THE LEVEL NEEDED FOR A HEAT

ADVISORY..." 

 

I think it was brief reprieve for areas along Rt 2, though. ALB's DP back to 72 last hour, and FIT popped back to 70.  Looking over the last several hours, the DPs have been rising from west to east this morning.  850s still support 90 everywhere, so where it clears ... barring convective clouds the temp should respond.  Having said that, I really haven't been impressed by the advisory verification.  A few HIs of 100 year and there, but really not that ubiquitous.  I suppose that doesn't matter.  This has not even been a Big Heat event... though there were a few 95 and 96s on one afternoon.  It's a deal where the HIs are like 98 unrelenting, so what's the sensible difference.

 

Nice clearing has evolved.  Thunderstorms should get an assist for having heights slightly lowered -- already rad shows a blip or two out around CEF.

We had cloud cover out here from 8am to 11am and it was pleasnat but full sun since and feels pretty damn hot atm.

86/74 two hours in the yard/garden and I'm toasted.

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This 12z extended operational GFS from D7 to the end is outrageously hot looking.  Huge ridge approach 600DM migrates slowly from SE of NE to the MV over that 4 to 5 days, with diurnal 850s approach 20C the entire times.  That's like 5 straight days of 96/72.

 

I tell you what... it can get even hotter.  It's probably a hidden blessing that there isn't any continental processed heat... such as a Sonoran air layer involved.  These cyclic weaknesses in the heights that carve in and then retrograde toward the lower MV are tending to shunt that air source from migrating out and getting involved in the larger scale circulation.  Otherwise, this would be a dangerous heat pattern.

 

As is, it's remarkableness is in the longevity of that potential. 

 

We'll see, but the operational Euro from 00z also hinted.

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mcd1334.gif

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT SUN JUL 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071816Z - 072015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY TO THE POCONO MTNS. MODIFIED 12Z ALB/OKX RAOBS SUGGEST
AIR MASS IS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG.
ALBANY VWP DATA SUPPORT NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KM
AND FLOW DECREASING WITH HEIGHT BEYOND THAT. THIS TYPE OF WIND
PROFILE SHOULD FAVOR A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS THAT MAY PRODUCE
SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GRAMS/HART.. 07/07/2013
 

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