forkyfork Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Much more oppressive today here in nj.what area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Much more oppressive today here in nj.what area? Princeton. Country house on 14 acres with a nice pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 The euro ensembles he meant. That is still the best guidance, but the GEFS actually performed better post July 4th if you go back to the runs on June 25th. Do we have a link that demonstrates their superiority (the Euro ensembles)? I'd like to study that data in quadrature, because from where I have sat/observed, the ensemble mean is almost as guilty. It may be the better guidance over all, but in so far as what it means for this particular discussion -- zealous troughing in the east -- it could be the better guidance overall and still have a problem with that one specific thing. Interesting... By the way folks, Cape Verdi TW showing signs of organization (lower right corner). It's S of the SAL layering and moving W. It has robust cyclonic signature on satellite. Oceanic heat content is sufficient for organization. Despite these positive factors TPC only gives it 20%. Quick note: We are passing into the (+) side of the QBO anomaly. Currently this is more noted in the 30mb sigma, but it will work down in time... anomally Numbers through May: 2013 -6.07 -1.24 2.85 8.39 12.64 I am having difficulty locating a straight answer off the internet as to whether the QBO is in East or West phase. I think it must be entering the westerly phase, though, if memory serves. Which means wind moving from east toward the west? The problem with the internet and Meteorology is that Meteorology has too many egos relative to other sciences, acting as obstacles to getting straight concise information. When one attempts to Google for quick answers, such as "What phase is the QBO in?" (couldn't be any more straight forward...), you get thousands of links to some lecture by an egg that amounts to the wow factor, instead of telling us what the f phase of the index is. Assuming it is strengthening entering the west phase, historical data suggest a bit of a higher frequency of hurricane days, and TC strength associated (about 1/3rd more). But perhaps Scott or someone could corroborate this assumption....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 rinse and repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Do we have a link that demonstrates their superiority (the Euro ensembles)? I'd like to study that data in quadrature, because from where I have sat/observed, the ensemble mean is almost as guilty. It may be the better guidance over all, but in so far as what it means for this particular discussion -- zealous troughing in the east -- it could be the better guidance overall and still have a problem with that one specific thing. Interesting... By the way folks, Cape Verdi TW showing signs of organization (lower right corner). It's S of the SAL layering and moving W. It has robust cyclonic signature on satellite. Oceanic heat content is sufficient for organization. Despite these positive factors TPC only gives it 20%. Quick note: We are passing into the (+) side of the QBO anomaly. Currently this is more noted in the 30mb sigma, but it will work down in time... anomally Numbers through May: 2013 -6.07 -1.24 2.85 8.39 12.64 I can't located a straight answer off the internet as to whether the QBO is in East or West phase. I think it must be entering the westerly phase, though, if memory serves. Which means wind moving from east toward the west? The problem with the internet and Meteorology is that Meteorology has too many egos relative to other sciences, acting as obstacles to getting straight concise information. When one attempts to Google for quick answers, such as "What phase is the QBO in?" (couldn't be any more straight forward...), you get thousands of links to some lecture by and egg that amounts to the wow factor, instead of telling us what the f phase of the index is. Assuming it is strengthening entering the west phase, the data shows that there is a bit of a higher frequency of hurricane days, and TC strength associated. But perhaps Scott and corroborate this assumption....? It just means that the QBO is showing more wrly winds. It can have "anomolous" westerly winds, but in general the westerly wind phase means winds more west to east or westerly winds. Thus, it is now in sync with the thermal wind arguments we know as cold north, warm south type setup. Easterly QBO would have the opposite regime. IIRC the westerly phase of the QBO in the summer will act to have a higher tropopause height in the subtropics leading to deeper convection. Regarding the euro ensembles, it does have a bias (although nothing like the op), but in general is the better guidance usually. It's had some good forecast regrading the cool snaps we had, and also actually did have this warm signal..just not as strong as the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Tips had a hardon for the euro for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Princeton. Country house on 14 acres with a nice pool. Pool for the win in NJ today, I'm sure! 81.5/70 here at the pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 GFS with an ugly pattern by late week into weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 GFS with an ugly pattern by late week into weekend. Does that mean muggy and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Does that mean muggy and wet Means wet and onshore flow. Verbatim it would be wuite cool Friday into Saturday in ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Every one will be saying in late August and Sept when cane season hits, if we only had the pattern we had in June July. Been a nice dry spell, storms have been Meh, best action NNE, tomorrow looks semi OK but better for NYC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Means wet and onshore flow. Verbatim it would be wuite cool Friday into Saturday in ern areas.with another strong atlantic ridge coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 with another strong atlantic ridge coming west Lets hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Lets hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Bermuda high pattern for the near future. Embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Bermuda high pattern for the near future. Embrace it. writing's on the wall. dominant atlantic ridge through most of july... the euro/gfs ensembles show it through day 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 This wx blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 writing's on the wall. dominant atlantic ridge through most of july... the euro/gfs ensembles show it through day 15yep one of those years, Pickles mentioned the jelly fish, did not have any last year with a dominant NW flow but BH flow years they are certain to show up. SSTS are going to cook, going to be a very interesting tropical season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 yep one of those years, Pickles mentioned the jelly fish, did not have any last year with a dominant NW flow but BH flow years they are certain to show up. SSTS are going to cook, going to be a very interesting tropical season Jelly fish are here and closing beaches on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 This wx blows.Have to adjust it is what it is. Probably setting us up for mayhem. Hot SSTS in a favorable winter pattern are a cocktail I look forward too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Jelly fish are here and closing beaches on the south coast.South coast of where? None in RI yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 South coast of where? None in RI yesterday MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Have to adjust it is what it is. Probably setting us up for mayhem. Hot SSTS in a favorable winter pattern are a cocktail I look forward too. Blows for comfort and energy bills. BLOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 yep one of those years, Pickles mentioned the jelly fish, did not have any last year with a dominant NW flow but BH flow years they are certain to show up. SSTS are going to cook, going to be a very interesting tropical seasongood pattern for stray tropicals to make it here. people collect them for their aquariums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 MA.sucks, is that open ocean or bays, inlets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Remember when we talked about the south coast getting crazy dewpoints because of wind off the water and lack of mixing? Check out the TDs from PVC through the CT coast. Mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 sucks, is that open ocean or bays, inlets? A beach down on MVY and down by Westport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 good pattern for stray tropicals to make it here. people collect them for their aquariumsNarragansett Bay is one of those spots that the tropical fish love. Divers often see them there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 This wx blows.Have to adjust it is what it is. Probably setting us up for mayhem. Hot SSTS in a favorable winter pattern are a cocktail I look forward too. Bingo! We're going places in joyful wonder come winter this upcoming season. Sure it's warm and humid but it's summer. Embrace it, shower frequently, and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 There is nothing to enjoy unless your ass is in the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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