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Ridge Builds In - Humidity Sticks Around - Wx Disc

CT Rain

By CT Rain,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

The euro ensembles he meant. That is still the best guidance, but the GEFS actually performed better post July 4th if you go back to the runs on June 25th.

 

Do we have a link that demonstrates their superiority (the Euro ensembles)?  I'd like to study that data in quadrature, because from where I have sat/observed, the ensemble mean is almost as guilty.  

 

It may be the better guidance over all, but in so far as what it means for this particular discussion -- zealous troughing in the east -- it could be the better guidance overall and still have a problem with that one specific thing.  Interesting...

 

By the way folks, Cape Verdi TW showing signs of organization (lower right corner).

avn-l.jpg

 

It's S of the SAL layering and moving W.  It has robust cyclonic signature on satellite.  Oceanic heat content is sufficient for organization.  Despite these positive factors TPC only gives it 20%.  Quick note:  We are passing into the (+) side of the QBO anomaly.  Currently this is more noted in the 30mb sigma, but it will work down in time...  anomally Numbers through May: 

 

2013  -6.07  -1.24  2.85  8.39  12.64   

 

I am having difficulty locating a straight answer off the internet as to whether the QBO is in East or West phase.  I think it must be entering the westerly phase, though, if memory serves.  Which means wind moving from east toward the west?  

 

The problem with the internet and Meteorology is that Meteorology has too many egos relative to other sciences, acting as obstacles to getting straight concise information.  When one attempts to Google for quick answers, such as "What phase is the QBO in?"   (couldn't be any more straight forward...), you get thousands of links to some lecture by an egg that amounts to the wow factor, instead of telling us what the f phase of the index is.

 

Assuming it is strengthening entering the west phase, historical data suggest a bit of a higher frequency of hurricane days, and TC strength associated (about 1/3rd more).  But perhaps Scott or someone could corroborate this assumption....?     

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Do we have a link that demonstrates their superiority (the Euro ensembles)?  I'd like to study that data in quadrature, because from where I have sat/observed, the ensemble mean is almost as guilty.  

 

It may be the better guidance over all, but in so far as what it means for this particular discussion -- zealous troughing in the east -- it could be the better guidance overall and still have a problem with that one specific thing.  Interesting...

 

By the way folks, Cape Verdi TW showing signs of organization (lower right corner).  It's S of the SAL layering and moving W.  It has robust cyclonic signature on satellite.  Oceanic heat content is sufficient for organization.  Despite these positive factors TPC only gives it 20%.  Quick note:  We are passing into the (+) side of the QBO anomaly.  Currently this is more noted in the 30mb sigma, but it will work down in time...  anomally Numbers through May: 

 

2013  -6.07  -1.24  2.85  8.39  12.64   

 

I can't located a straight answer off the internet as to whether the QBO is in East or West phase.  I think it must be entering the westerly phase, though, if memory serves.  Which means wind moving from east toward the west?  

 

The problem with the internet and Meteorology is that Meteorology has too many egos relative to other sciences, acting as obstacles to getting straight concise information.  When one attempts to Google for quick answers, such as "What phase is the QBO in?"   (couldn't be any more straight forward...), you get thousands of links to some lecture by and egg that amounts to the wow factor, instead of telling us what the f phase of the index is.

 

Assuming it is strengthening entering the west phase, the data shows that there is a bit of a higher frequency of hurricane days, and TC strength associated.  But perhaps Scott and corroborate this assumption....?     

 

It just means that the QBO is showing more wrly winds. It can have "anomolous" westerly winds, but in general the westerly wind phase means winds more west to east or westerly winds. Thus, it is now in sync with the thermal wind arguments we know as cold north, warm south type setup. Easterly QBO would have the opposite regime. IIRC the westerly phase of the QBO in the summer will act to have a higher tropopause height in the subtropics leading to deeper convection.

 

Regarding the euro ensembles, it does have a bias (although nothing like the op), but in general is the better guidance usually. It's had some good forecast regrading the cool snaps we had, and also actually did have this warm signal..just not as strong as the GEFS.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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writing's on the wall. dominant atlantic ridge through most of july... the euro/gfs ensembles show it through day 15

yep one of those years, Pickles mentioned the jelly fish, did not have any last year with a dominant NW flow but BH flow years they are certain to show up. SSTS are going to cook, going to be a very interesting tropical season
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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yep one of those years, Pickles mentioned the jelly fish, did not have any last year with a dominant NW flow but BH flow years they are certain to show up. SSTS are going to cook, going to be a very interesting tropical season

 

Jelly fish are here and closing beaches on the south coast.

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted

yep one of those years, Pickles mentioned the jelly fish, did not have any last year with a dominant NW flow but BH flow years they are certain to show up. SSTS are going to cook, going to be a very interesting tropical season

good pattern for stray tropicals to make it here. people collect them for their aquariums
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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

This wx blows.Have to adjust it is what it is. Probably setting us up for mayhem. Hot SSTS in a favorable winter pattern are a cocktail I look forward too.

Bingo! We're going places in joyful wonder come winter this upcoming season.

Sure it's warm and humid but it's summer. Embrace it, shower frequently, and enjoy.

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