Collinsville Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 The cumulative effect of the humidity is beginning to take its toll. I woke up to 81 degrees in my bedroom with fan going all night. I could go for a nice 60F morning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Hideous model bust from 10 days ago--guess that's why you can't put too much stock in a 10 day prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2013 Author Share Posted July 6, 2013 Hideous model bust from 10 days ago--guess that's why you can't put too much stock in a 10 day prog Why what did they show? I rarely look at op runs past D7 so I don't even know when they bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Why what did they show? I rarely look at op runs past D7 so I don't even know when they bust lol Euro and a few others had a wet, cool 4th and the days around it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 86.5 here at 10:15 am--impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Why what did they show? I rarely look at op runs past D7 so I don't even know when they bust lol Forky postted an image yesterday. They actually hinted at the ridge, but were too far east. GEFS actually handled it better post July 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Euro and a few others had a wet, cool 4th and the days around it.... Well who the heck takes a day 10 prog seriously though. It's not even worth saying what it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Well who the heck takes a day 10 prog seriously though. It's not even worth saying what it showed. Agree, but I think there was some agreement with other models...not really important in the general scheme of things.... - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 EC ens had the ridge axis more east of us too. Not the ECMWF's brightest moment, but even the best guidance fails from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 right around 90f right now. looks like tan melted again in the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2013 Author Share Posted July 6, 2013 EC ens had the ridge axis more east of us too. Not the ECMWF's brightest moment, but even the best guidance fails from time to time. Yup... even Kevin gets a forecast right sometimes too. Now we need to try and get some storms to pop. Lots of instability and shear around... lets make this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Agree, but I think there was some agreement with other models...not really important in the general scheme of things.... - Well with the trough axis not far away, I think the concern was rain. I mean another 150 miles east and it would be what they are having in NY and VT so the concern was valid...especially being 10 days out. It's important to specify a concern vs a forecast when you are 10 days out. Obviously nothing should be taken seriously so far out..but the concern IMHO was valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Yup... even Kevin gets a forecast right sometimes too. Now we need to try and get some storms to pop. Lots of instability and shear around... lets make this happen. I'm sort of intrigued by today, but at the same time there are flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Looks like BOX finally recognizes the threat near CT and RI too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Looking at the op euro, what always strikes me for heat potential are thicknesses. Sne has a signal for Thursday the 11th. Overall however, nothing under 570 1000-500 thicknesses for the foreseeable future. I only get Allan's ensembles and I don't get that detail but the broad brush seems similar to the op. what we hve now is the pattern giver or take little nuances but overall not much change. Tuesday as Scott N stated could be cooler albeit possibly still humid in some areas. 1 day respite? That's the pattern were in it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Looking at the op euro, what always strikes me for heat potential are thicknesses. Sne has a signal for Thursday the 11th. Overall however, nothing under 570 1000-500 thicknesses for the foreseeable future. I only get Allan's ensembles and I don't get that detail but the broad brush seems similar to the op. what we hve now is the pattern giver or take little nuances but overall not much change. Tuesday as Scott N stated could be cooler albeit possibly still humid in some areas. 1 day respite? That's the pattern were in it seems. Yeah we may go back to more sultry wx ahead of a low developing. Maybe next weekend we finally have some reprieve? I don't see a wholesale pattern change yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2013 Author Share Posted July 6, 2013 I'm sort of intrigued by today, but at the same time there are flags. Looks like BOX finally recognizes the threat near CT and RI too. Yeah just like yesterday there's not much CIN and plenty of instability... but today we may finally get enough upper level support with a passing s/w to fire something off as the ridge has snuck south just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 i like monday's threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Yup... even Kevin gets a forecast right sometimes too. Now we need to try and get some storms to pop. Lots of instability and shear around... lets make this happen. Today for storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 D4 in a row now aoa 90 at BOS. Should achieve d5 with d6 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 At york beach this weathers not so bad when your at the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 EC ens had the ridge axis more east of us too. Not the ECMWF's brightest moment, but even the best guidance fails from time to time. The Euro is useless beyond D6 ...it's verification collapses substantially even beyond D5 and is just as stochastic and unreliable as any out there. Not you per se ... but anyone who knows that, it doesn't make much sense to use adjectives like "best guidance" when speaking about the Euro in the extended -- it never was the better guidance for that time range. I posted about this yesterday and have ad nauseam. The Euro digs heights as a bias in the east, waaaaay to zealously in its extended. It's having blown seeing this heat is understandable given to it's limitation. Which is why I am forced to wonder if the trough it is trying to dig in again around D7 is being over developed yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 The Euro is useless beyond D6 ...it's verification collapses substantially even beyond D5 and is just as stochastic and unreliable as any out there. Not you per se ... but anyone who knows that, it doesn't make much sense to use adjectives like "best guidance" when speaking about the Euro in the extended -- it never was the better guidance for that time range. I posted about this yesterday and have ad nauseam. The Euro digs heights as a bias in the east, waaaaay to zealously in its extended. It's having blown seeing this heat is understandable given to it's limitation. Which is why I am forced to wonder if the trough it is trying to dig in again around D7 is being over developed yet again. The euro ensembles he meant. That is still the best guidance, but the GEFS actually performed better post July 4th if you go back to the runs on June 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 4km NAM fires nothing anywhere in CNE or SNE today. You can see signs of a weak boundary slipping south, but only a few clouds. A few storms try to fire in southeast NY after sunset, but that's it. Who knows though, I think at least a few isolated showers and storms flare up later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 GFS gives the area relief in terms of temps Tuesday and Wednesday..especially ern areas. Dews may be a bit less too in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2013 Author Share Posted July 6, 2013 i like monday's threat Certainly a nice looking signal for at least widespread storms. Severe possible too in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Certainly a nice looking signal for at least widespread storms. Severe possible too in some areas. Cold pool moves right overhead too. Lock in some good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2013 Author Share Posted July 6, 2013 Cold pool moves right overhead too. Lock in some good storms. Yeah it's a nice look for lots of coverage and a couple rounds. Not sure on severity but a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Much more oppressive today here in nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 4km NAM fires nothing anywhere in CNE or SNE today. You can see signs of a weak boundary slipping south, but only a few clouds. A few storms try to fire in southeast NY after sunset, but that's it. Who knows though, I think at least a few isolated showers and storms flare up later on. with that and the btv wrf showing nada (well one in s berks and thru litchfield hillls w a cpl iso in nh it has nada thru where almost all live) i will be watching for the 12z 4km and 12km runs but it doesnt seem to show anything but a cpl weak storms far w and in nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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