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Ridge Builds In - Humidity Sticks Around - Wx Disc


CT Rain

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EC ens had the ridge axis more east of us too. Not the ECMWF's brightest moment, but even the best guidance fails from time to time.

 

Yup... even Kevin gets a forecast right sometimes too. 

 

Now we need to try and get some storms to pop. Lots of instability and shear around... lets make this happen. 

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Agree, but I think there was some agreement with other models...not really important in the general scheme of things....

-

 

Well with the trough axis not far away, I think the concern was rain. I mean another 150 miles east and it would be what they are having in NY and VT so the concern was valid...especially being 10 days out.  It's important to specify a concern vs a forecast when you are 10 days out. Obviously nothing should be taken seriously so far out..but the concern IMHO was valid.

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Looking at the op euro, what always strikes me for heat potential are thicknesses. Sne has a signal for Thursday the 11th. Overall however, nothing under 570 1000-500 thicknesses for the foreseeable future. I only get Allan's ensembles and I don't get that detail but the broad brush seems similar to the op. what we hve now is the pattern giver or take little nuances but overall not much change. Tuesday as Scott N stated could be cooler albeit possibly still humid in some areas. 1 day respite? That's the pattern were in it seems.

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Looking at the op euro, what always strikes me for heat potential are thicknesses. Sne has a signal for Thursday the 11th. Overall however, nothing under 570 1000-500 thicknesses for the foreseeable future. I only get Allan's ensembles and I don't get that detail but the broad brush seems similar to the op. what we hve now is the pattern giver or take little nuances but overall not much change. Tuesday as Scott N stated could be cooler albeit possibly still humid in some areas. 1 day respite? That's the pattern were in it seems.

 

Yeah we may go back to more sultry wx ahead of a low developing. Maybe next weekend we finally have some reprieve? I don't see a wholesale pattern change yet.

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I'm sort of intrigued by today, but at the same time there are flags.

 

 

Looks like BOX finally recognizes the threat near CT and RI too.

 

Yeah just like yesterday there's not much CIN and plenty of instability... but today we may finally get enough upper level support with a passing s/w to fire something off as the ridge has snuck south just a bit. 

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EC ens had the ridge axis more east of us too. Not the ECMWF's brightest moment, but even the best guidance fails from time to time.

 

The Euro is useless beyond D6 ...it's verification collapses substantially even beyond D5 and is just as stochastic and unreliable as any out there.  

 

Not you per se ... but anyone who knows that, it doesn't make much sense to use adjectives like "best guidance" when speaking about the Euro in the extended -- it never was the better guidance for that time range. 

 

I posted about this yesterday and have ad nauseam.   The Euro digs heights as a bias in the east, waaaaay to zealously in its extended.  It's having blown seeing this heat is understandable given to it's limitation.   

 

Which is why I am forced to wonder if the trough it is trying to dig in again around D7 is being over developed yet again.  

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The Euro is useless beyond D6 ...it's verification collapses substantially even beyond D5 and is just as stochastic and unreliable as any out there.  

 

Not you per se ... but anyone who knows that, it doesn't make much sense to use adjectives like "best guidance" when speaking about the Euro in the extended -- it never was the better guidance for that time range. 

 

I posted about this yesterday and have ad nauseam.   The Euro digs heights as a bias in the east, waaaaay to zealously in its extended.  It's having blown seeing this heat is understandable given to it's limitation.   

 

Which is why I am forced to wonder if the trough it is trying to dig in again around D7 is being over developed yet again.  

 

 

The euro ensembles he meant. That is still the best guidance, but the GEFS actually performed better post July 4th if you go back to the runs on June 25th.

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4km NAM fires nothing anywhere in CNE or SNE today. You can see signs of a weak boundary slipping south, but only a few clouds. A few storms try to fire in southeast NY after sunset, but that's it.

Who knows though, I think at least a few isolated showers and storms flare up later on.

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4km NAM fires nothing anywhere in CNE or SNE today. You can see signs of a weak boundary slipping south, but only a few clouds. A few storms try to fire in southeast NY after sunset, but that's it.

Who knows though, I think at least a few isolated showers and storms flare up later on.

with that and the btv wrf showing nada (well one in s berks and thru litchfield hillls w a cpl iso in nh it has nada thru where almost all live) i will be watching for the 12z 4km and 12km runs but it doesnt seem to show anything but a cpl weak storms far w and in nh
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