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Ridge Builds In - Humidity Sticks Around - Wx Disc


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If you go back though, our summers have def become more humid than they used to be. Sure we usually get some breaks but the trends seem to be for moister type summers .

 

Summer won't be over for another 8 weeks so it's a little premature to settle on this summer, but any summarization of humidity so far this year has to take into account the cool wet conditions that we had for most of June.  We seem to go through periods of hotter, more humid summers and then get a stretch of cooler summers.

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LMAO

Only feels like 128F at KMATAUNT12

10:20 89.6 °F 127.5 °F 89.0°F 29.98in West 5.8mph - 98%

 

 

And just 2mi away on the other side of the front it's gorgeous.

HI not even registering at KMATAUNT3.  DP only 52F.

What's 37F amongst PWS only 2mi apart.

10:40 93.7 °F - 51.6°F 30.10in NW 4.5mph 4.5mph 24%
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And just 2mi away on the other side of the front it's gorgeous.

HI not even registering at KMATAUNT3.  DP only 52F.

What's 37F amongst PWS only 2mi apart.

10:40

93.7 °F

-

51.6°F

30.10in

NW

4.5mph

4.5mph

24%

The humid guy has an RH stuck at 98%. So he was pulling off 94/93 yesterday with 150F heat indices.
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I feel like this sort of snuck up on us. I didn't notice any real indices indicating the heat ovetr the east, but I think the cutoff over the MW is part of the puzzle.

it kept getting stronger. i was kind of hoping for it to not be as strong so the firehose over the southeast would be here instead

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Yeah he did and he's using this past cool shot in the plains to verify lol

in fairness-he has New England in an average to slightly above average area...heart of his cool area is the midwest which is verifying so far.  and he had the biggest heat out west...

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If the timing of the shortwave on Monday is right, we could see some isolated severe thunderstorms. It's worth it to at least keep an eye on the evolving setup.

 

Right now based off of 12z GFS and 00z Euro, it comes through around or just after 00z TUE. Speed it up a few hours and things could get interesting.

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Yup...euro op/ens blew chunks with this. Hopefully we can get a solid SE ridge this winter.

 

I have been banging this drum since last January ...  The Euro and it's ensemble mean drill heights down in SE Canada at least excuse imaginable ... a beady-eyed bias to get there whenever they can for the smallest of available reasons.  I have seen it/them, take innocuous ...heck, mountain perturbations from over the Rockies cordillera, up over a ridge and use it to carve out Nor easters even.  

 

From what I have learned of the ECMWF's model is that they use extensive correction schemes to "damp out" false, chaos-related emerging events out in time; whereby, the important "real" ones don't get lost in a noisy maelstrom of bologna.   What is interesting is that this statement seems to be in direct opposition to the first paragraph.

 

The difference (  I think ) is time?   We have collectively noted both via stats and experience, that the Euro has a kind of "wheel-house" of excellence, outside of which it blows up a bit.  Well, THAT is the difference.  Their correction schemes seem to fall apart beyond about D5.  Solutions really migrate toward ...it almost seems like a base-line state +PNAP construct to the flow  (meaning Positive Perennial North American Pattern, different than the PNA, which occupies both N/A and the Pacific -- important distinction). 

 

Anyway, taken fwiw, this recent extended range performance noted by Forky' is a classic example. 

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If the timing of the shortwave on Monday is right, we could see some isolated severe thunderstorms. It's worth it to at least keep an eye on the evolving setup.

 

Right now based off of 12z GFS and 00z Euro, it comes through around or just after 00z TUE. Speed it up a few hours and things could get interesting.

 

Imho, convection chances increases a little by day up to then.

 

Today the heights begin a slow reduction, merely culminating in that S/W translation through the area come Monday. That feature was originally slated for Saturday up until about 6 cycles ago, and then it got bumped out in time to the end of the weekend.  Anwyay, it's the vestiges of the current retrograded trough being usurped back into the flow by ...

 

well, point being, the pattern looks like diurnal  See/txt and/or slight just about every day from Sund - Wed next week to me.  Pick your reason... 

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Working in this weather blows. 500 foot fence and four foot holes for for the wood frame of it.

 

Hence the Heat Advisory ?     

 

"AVOID PROLONGED WORK IN THE SUN OR IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK IN ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS."

 

What part of that statement urges one to put in 500 foot of fence and digging four foot holes in this kind of crap.   I guess if you are in a laborious prison camp doing so under duress of armed guard like a chain gang ...circa 1948, Georgia.  Otherwise the world is what you make it and you make your own choices.   

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