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July. High summer 2013-a humid and warm start. Is big heat lurking? Banter ok here.


weathafella

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It did have enesemble support...but that was a pretty weak azz trough. There was still a pretty good WAR which ended up retrograding in the end. The upcoming trough is a bit more robust...but more importantly, the WAR is knocked down quite a bit which makes it more plausible to get some continental airmasses in here....its also a better pattern to get an EML in here.

GFS is similar just delayed but its definitely a pattern change from what we had the last 3-4 weeks especially the Bermuda High. Looking forward to changing weather, this stuff we went through was stale fungus growing, some nice days but too muggy. I would take  90 plus heat and 60 degree dewpoints any day

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WAR will win all battles with troughs this summer. It's happened 3 times including next week and models don't catch on till 5 days out. No changes coming . None

While I tend to agree with you on this one, I have to wonder if you or anyone remember a time when you didn't "forecast" or call for the type of weather you desire?

I can't wait for you to call for a chilly day in the summer or a cutter in the winter, because they do happen lol.

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While I tend to agree with you on this one, I have to wonder if you or anyone remember a time when you didn't "forecast" or call for the type of weather you desire?

I can't wait for you to call for a chilly day in the summer or a cutter in the winter, because they do happen lol.

 

 

He did forecast for the February Blizzard to whiff.

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Yet that had no ENS support and its a cherry pick, keep believing its never ending torch with high overnight lows. The answer my friend is blowing in the wind.

That is the ENS though. I do think we cool off a bit, but I'm not confident about getting +8C down here like the op has. Maybe a day or to of near two slightly below and then back into the frequent aboves?
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Euro ensembles still bringing in cooler air next weekend. 

 

 

Yeah I think we'll get at least some relief...the WAR is beaten down more than on previous attempts. I do still think we'll be prone to heat intrusions from the west though...at least until the ridge out west is more amped.

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Yeah I think we'll get at least some relief...the WAR is beaten down more than on previous attempts. I do still think we'll be prone to heat intrusions from the west though...at least until the ridge out west is more amped.

Do wonder if we sneak in one really hot day before the fropa. Seems most guidance wants to grab some of that actual heat and eject it east...replace the 90F-93F stuff with a day of 95-98F?

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Do wonder if we sneak in one really hot day before the fropa. Seems most guidance wants to grab some of that actual heat and eject it east...replace the 90F-93F stuff with a day of 95-98F?

 

 

There could def be a prefrontal torch day with west winds, lower dews, downslope, etc. Next Friday could be a decent candidate.

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