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July. High summer 2013-a humid and warm start. Is big heat lurking? Banter ok here.

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Not that anyone asked, and I suspect this will be ignored because it's scientific and therefore tedious and boring to most...  but it is worth wondering if the on-going warm bias in the various MOS products during these ridging events might atone to the anomalous nature in which they have been engendered.  

 

They have burgeoned east of us, then retrograded west.  The trouble with that is, they are not toting along any continental processed air.  More typically, ridging sets up due to L/W trough incursion into the west, and when that does, EML/Sonoran type air gets ejected into the flow downstream.  But these have been positive departures arriving via less than normal means, from the E.  It's an odd ...highly retrogressive pattern in the middle latitudes; I find it interesting.  

 

As we well know, climatology is programmed into these MOS products to varying degrees. It just raises the question as to whether the MOS products "think" these periods of ridging are more standard in nature -- in which case, there would likely be more Plateau air mixed in and therefore a hotter potential.  

 

Having said that, some of the current model are trying to get some continental air mixed in toward the week's end.   We'll see. 

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

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Okay now that 99.999% of the forum members agree that PWS are all suspect and 100% persons working in the scientific field of meteorology know of a thing called QC. It's really a mute point. My PWS is sited correctly, yeck it's one of the most expensive, accurate on the market. My Td's run high but it's within 2° split between BED and BOX. 

 

Very weak SB material today.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

Not that anyone asked, and I suspect this will be ignored because it's scientific and therefore tedious and boring to most...  but it is worth wondering if the on-going warm bias in the various MOS products during these ridging events might atone to the anomalous nature in which they have been engendered.  

 

They have burgeoned east of us, then retrograded west.  The trouble with that is, they are not toting along any continental processed air.  More typically, ridging sets up due to L/W trough incursion into the west, and when that does, EML/Sonoran type air gets ejected into the flow downstream.  But these have been positive departures arriving via less than normal means, from the E.  It's an odd ...highly retrogressive pattern in the middle latitudes; I find it interesting.  

 

As we well know, climatology is programmed into these MOS products to varying degrees. It just raises the question as to whether the MOS products "think" these periods of ridging are more standard in nature -- in which case, there would likely be more Plateau air mixed in and therefore a hotter potential.  

 

Having said that, some of the current model are trying to get some continental air mixed in toward the week's end.   We'll see. 

I remember it missing alot last summer too--calls for 98-100 degrees and then reality was 92-93...was that continental air last summer?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I remember it missing alot last summer too--calls for 98-100 degrees and then reality was 92-93...was that continental air last summer?

 

I don't know - good question.

 

But, 2 years ago it was spot on whenever there was a Sonoran heat ejection.  It seems to nail those high probabilities when there is more of that.

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
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I really think OKX overestimates the influence of LI sound this time of year. Unless you are literally on the beach, the water is doing nothing to keep temps down a mile or two inland. And if it does, it's usually made up for by slightly higher DPs. Yet they like to act like there's a strong south wind and LI is still in the 50's. 

This

 

I was shocked this morning when I found out that they dropped the Heat Advisories for eastern LI. The LI sound isn't cool enough. In fact the NNW wind off the LI sound is helping keep our DP's high and thus our HI's higher than some other places inland.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Not that anyone asked, and I suspect this will be ignored because it's scientific and therefore tedious and boring to most...  but it is worth wondering if the on-going warm bias in the various MOS products during these ridging events might atone to the anomalous nature in which they have been engendered.  

 

They have burgeoned east of us, then retrograded west.  The trouble with that is, they are not toting along any continental processed air.  More typically, ridging sets up due to L/W trough incursion into the west, and when that does, EML/Sonoran type air gets ejected into the flow downstream.  But these have been positive departures arriving via less than normal means, from the E.  It's an odd ...highly retrogressive pattern in the middle latitudes; I find it interesting.  

 

As we well know, climatology is programmed into these MOS products to varying degrees. It just raises the question as to whether the MOS products "think" these periods of ridging are more standard in nature -- in which case, there would likely be more Plateau air mixed in and therefore a hotter potential.  

 

Having said that, some of the current model are trying to get some continental air mixed in toward the week's end.   We'll see. 

 

Valid points. It's a statistical product, but the method of our warm July is not very common.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Valid points. It's a statistical product, but the method of our warm July is not very common.

You can see how unusual it is by looking at the rest of the country, where in the Southeast and Midwest temperatures have averaged below normal this July. We haven't had the normal pattern of heat over the Midwest ejecting eastward; it's been the opposite with the heat confined to the far West Atlantic and the Northeast US/Canada. The Weatherbell maps show nicely how the warm Atlantic SSTs have helped strengthen that ridge (feedback?) and created this unusual high humidity/moderate heat situation.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

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Posted

Okay now that 99.999% of the forum members agree that PWS are all suspect and 100% persons working in the scientific field of meteorology know of a thing called QC. It's really a mute point. My PWS is sited correctly, yeck it's one of the most expensive, accurate on the market. My Td's run high but it's within 2° split between BED and BOX. 

 

Very weak SB material today.

 

What are you using BTW?  Some day I'd like to get some highly accurate sensors online.  A while ago I looked at some sensors from RM Young that were about $700 but I think the problem was getting the data online that was problematic.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/epz/mesonet/CWOP-Siting.pdf

 

If you abide by the siting rules and have your instruments calibrated often, then you should be good to go. CWOP has a great data quality program that will email you when something is out of whack with your readings. Usually means it's time for a calibration.

 

I agree and those are great backyard rules but I think the problem is that most people don't have that much open space.  I think that's why most folks use the airports because it's a standard that at least is going to be consistent (in most cases):

 

http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/ess05/ess0504.htm

 

I actually look at my QC data and I know my station is not the best but I do find that one of the more beneficial benefits of  submitting data to the program.

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