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July. High summer 2013-a humid and warm start. Is big heat lurking? Banter ok here.

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

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ridge takes a beatdown we are more likely on the cooler side for the bulk of days, NYC south not so much. Scooter is right, wet pattern seems likely. 575 heights yesterday and a high of 73.

Easterly breeze and an embedded s/w will do that. Could happen again.

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joey2002

joey2002

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On a related note...

I think technology has advanced enough to the point where we should be able to get up to the minute obs from every ASOS/AWOS site out there. Most of the PWS sites have uploaded obs every 5-10mins. Having to wait an hour for the next "official" ob seems a little prehistoric. And no, I don't want to call an ASOS for the most recent updated ob.

/rant

 

Completely agree... I don't understand it with all the technology we have these days.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

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Ive been lookin at different obs across country and man weather in tahoe and say telluride looks nice but no ocean around there. I think id take so cal. Big surf and a two hour get away to big bear where upper 70's by day and mid 40's by nite await... And of course crazy snow in el nino

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joey2002

joey2002

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BDL came up, but only due to evap cooling. lol

66/62 there now so the 67+ streak is officially over.

 

Can't believe our 67+ streak was broken at 8AM... go figure.

 

19 days in a row at BDL is still a record, but looking ahead, we could have really demolished the old record. 

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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i recall u mention'd that before. I thought they had 10. I figure we get four this week.

 

I could see one or two days where they have like an 090 or 100 wind direction but then flip SW at like 6pm or so. Four sounds like a good start, certainly a few miles inland will achieve that..probably 5 there. I like your number. I'll say 19.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This pattern we have been in has about a 4 to 5 day periodicity while successive ridge nodes roll-back/retrograde, in between which there are roughly two-day periods of more seasonal heights/thickness'.  

 

These troughs are only weakly baroclinic, though this last one was a bit more impressive with a nice surge of dry air associated with post fropa +PP.  But, here we are on the N side of a retrograding warm boundary just a day later, and the DP is already about 70 across the area, give or take.   The last 3 weeks have shifted from midland heat, to about average, with above average DPs, most of the time.

 

The problem is ... separating out the Euro's trough bias that's been "air apparent"  (nice pun) beyond it's D5.5s, from the more realistic expectation, is difficult.  What's been going on is that the Euro's been correct with timing the ridge relaxations, but it has been too zealous with replacing those intervals with trough depths.   I have noticed that that the GGEM shares in this bias, and even the GFS has to a lesser degree.

 

Persistence argues against any deeper troughs, but more so, I'd even be a bit leery about the amount of WAR suppression that really succeeds.  I don't see anything hemispheric-scaled that requires an abeyance of the WAR pulsation behavior.   I just compared the mass fields between the 00z and 12z runs, in both the Euro and GGEM runs, and they both delayed the timing of any fropa/trough incursions through the Lakes/NE toward week's end.  It has been happening for 3 to 4 weeks now since the profounder pattern change that took place back whence in time.  

 

It is more likely that we endure yet again a period of midland-scaled heat through Thursday or Friday, and by then we will have sampled ample model output, and hopefully have formulated a cogent/objective outlook that balances these points made above, with any changes that may or may not be occurring in the baser circulation system, overall.  

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Unless we see the Bermuda High completely break down or move far enough south it's going to be very difficult to get 2-3+ days of cooler/drier weather...drier as in lower dews.  Any fronts that do slide through will likely either stall right over the region, or just off-shore and they will just move back north as a warm front a day or two later.  So while we may see some days like today or yesterday, they will be few and far between...heat/humidity will be the dominating pattern.

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joey2002

joey2002

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Intellectually dishonest to pin this one on Hughes though.

 

Not awful, but giving up 3 Home Runs isn't exactly a solid outing, lol.  Maybe Kevin caught one of them?

 

Red Sox were supposed to finish last in the AL East... instead they're heading into the all-star break with the most wins in MLB!

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Based on the 1981-2010 normals, ORH goes from a normal high of 77.7 on 7/1 to a peak of 79.3 from 7/18-25 before dropping off to 74.7 on 8/31. The big cool down months are really September and October where the normal high by the end of the month is 10 degrees cooler than at the start.

 

Believe me, I was not suggesting August was the biggest cool-down month (not that youi intimated that), but there is a big drop off from that July high to the end of August.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Intellectually dishonest to pin this one on Hughes though.

Not awful, but giving up 3 Home Runs isn't exactly a solid outing, lol. Maybe Kevin caught one of them?

Red Sox were supposed to finish last in the AL East... instead they're heading into the all-star break with the most wins in MLB!

Scoring 1 run....not the pitchers fault.

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