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July. High summer 2013-a humid and warm start. Is big heat lurking? Banter ok here.

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
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  On 7/12/2013 at 4:08 PM, weathafella said:

What's with the tp fetish. Same amount, winter or summer. As the only male in the house you can shine we use plenty..just not me.

It's disturbing. Didn't he do sales with catheters or bed pans, or something like that? That may explain part of the tp obsession.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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  On 7/12/2013 at 5:07 PM, forkyfork said:

even orh gets a legit heat wave

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KORH

 

 

That thing always predicts way too high for ORH. I think it had us getting like 5 days in the 90s the past two weeks and we got 0. We usually need +19 at 850 to do it...which on the GFS is close. We'll prob get 1 or 2 days unless guidance warms further in the mid-levels.

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weathafella

weathafella

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  On 7/12/2013 at 4:18 PM, Wx Hype said:

What's with the tp fetish. Same amount, winter or summer. As the only male in the house you can shine we use plenty..just not me.If you ate cereal daily you'd go much more often

I'm a 2-3 times a day man so you're in the big leagues competing against me.

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radarman

radarman

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  On 7/12/2013 at 5:23 PM, Happy Valley said:

Jeez, not much of a reprieve for the lower valley, many of the wunderground sites from Springfield to Northampton are in the low 80's with DP's running mid to even upper 60's.

 

It's all relative.  Low 80s/mid 60s might as well be shawl weather for us.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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  On 7/12/2013 at 5:27 PM, radarMan said:

It's all relative.  Low 80s/mid 60s might as well be shawl weather for us.

 

lol

 

MAke no mistake Greenfield starts to bake after a few days of S SW winds funneling hot air up from the lower valley.  the narrowness of the Valley up this way seems to make Greenfield and Brattleboro VT cook.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 7/12/2013 at 5:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

GFS looked more wet than anything after next week..in fact..rather cool. I also think the coast may battle weak BDF or seabreeze. 

 

It would be about right on time for these ridge genesis --> retrograde periodicities we've been seeing.   That's this "pattern" -- 4 days of heat followed by a weakness in the geopotential medium over the Appalachians, then a new occurrence of a west Atlantic ridge and the whole thing repeats.

 

That pattern change thread we had going a month ago was really heralding in (it turns out) that paradigm described above.  

 

Not that you or anyone asked ... but in order to change the pattern, that long term appeal would have to be significantly altered.  

 

Having said that, this current trough that has about 12 hours left before ridging takes back over was also over-zealously modeled by most operational guidance, just as the last... so I'd be a bit leery of any signal next week.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 7/12/2013 at 6:07 PM, OSUmetstud said:

The lack of eml advection into the northeast on the gfs is somewhat surprising given the pattern.  Some more troughing in the rockies would probably help.  

 

That's interesting... I was seeing that too, where as contrasting the 00z Euro did.  

 

12z should be out now, so --

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

BFF,

 

Interesting... I have had AdBlock for Chrome running all along.   I am wondering why the AdBlocker that you gave me via that link is so much more effective at stopping commercials from invading streaming -- must be a different kind of AdBlock.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This is an amazing GGEM chart for D8...  Look at that 850mb, apocalyptic continental dragon fart tongue of air connecting the Rockies' Venetian death dome to New England... And the QPF even argues for a 100F day to be truncated by thunder...   GGEM stands for histrionic -

 

f180.gif

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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  On 7/12/2013 at 5:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

It would be about right on time for these ridge genesis --> retrograde periodicities we've been seeing.   That's this "pattern" -- 4 days of heat followed by a weakness in the geopotential medium over the Appalachians, then a new occurrence of a west Atlantic ridge and the whole thing repeats.

 

That pattern change thread we had going a month ago was really heralding in (it turns out) that paradigm described above.  

 

Not that you or anyone asked ... but in order to change the pattern, that long term appeal would have to be significantly altered.  

 

Having said that, this current trough that has about 12 hours left before ridging takes back over was also over-zealously modeled by most operational guidance, just as the last... so I'd be a bit leery of any signal next week.

 

Just commenting on the GFS. Personally, I don't quite buy a 100% pattern reversal, but put me down for some relief perhaps near or after the 20th.  I mean look at today, 570 thicknesses practically and I'm holding in the 70s, so it is possible to drill down relatively comfy air with the right wind direction. Before that, looks toasty next week.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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  On 7/12/2013 at 6:02 PM, weathafella said:

BOS should have 20 aoa 90 before 8/1. What's the seasonal record?

 

 

They have 10 so far. I don't see BOS reaching 20 by August 1st.

 

I believe the record for 90F days at BOS is 25 in 1988.

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