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July 2013 Obs/Banter/Disco


Avdave

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If only the DP was like 63 or below... the 80s would feel nice

 

 

That isn't happening any time soon...same pattern, just hotter and maybe a little less wet, though I could definitely see more showery days or even a synoptic event

 

Fortunately no signs of a roll-over death dome....I figure we have a good chance of hitting 94-97 1 or 2 days next week, but also a decent chance of 85-87 and wet and cloudy...probably volatile enough pattern for July that the persistent 90-94 won't happen for long stretches

 

There is a big +AO/+NAO right now...and a lot of cold air trapped up in Canada around the Hudson Bay...eventually we might go into a blocking regime and temporarily that will force cold air south (in the means it blocking in the summer keeps us warm)....I could see a mid month cold outbreak, with 3-4 days of 85-88 with low dews and mins of 67-70...

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it appears to be coming but we've had plenty fall apart on our doorstep lately

This is true. 

Though it is pretty unstable out there per mesoanalysis. Probably will get mod-hvy showers at the very least. Maybe low odds at more substantial downpours. 

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A few showers popping in MoCo too. 

Assuming it holds together, that batch of showers redeveloping west of Fredericksburg may impact southern/eastern parts of MoCo.  Out here in western Frederick County, I'm too far west, I think.  Hoping for some popup activity though.

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