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July 2013 Obs/Banter/Disco


Avdave

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This is a tough pattern in terms of QPF as the deep southerly flow and really high PWs can support very heavy rainfall but there is now low level boundary to really focus the low level convergence or convection making it hard to know where or when heavy rain might occur.  Yesterday,  RDU got rocked.  Today has been more benign.   Tomorrow the models show a vort lifting north which should lead to a little more concentrated convection than today if the vort is real.  Right now trying to figure out where low level forcing will help pop convection is a tough call.  I should got golfing tomorrow to ensure we get more concentrated shower activity. 

 

that's ok...I want the Nats to get the game in tonight and try to get some momentum before the AS break against mediocre opponents...they can't seem get ahead of the .500 mark....

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that's ok...I want the Nats to get the game in tonight and try to get some momentum before the AS break against mediocre opponents...they can't seem get ahead of the .500 mark....

Me too, plus I want to see Harper back in the line up. The Nats should be favored in the next 3 games. 

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WTF?

 

METAR KBWI 011954Z 18008KT 150V220 10SM SCT014 BKN021TCU BKN090 BKN140 BKN250 27/22 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP129 CB DSNT E-SE AND DSNT NW-N TCU S-NE WALL CLOUD DSNT NW T02720217

lol noobs

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Tornado Warning for Somerset and Wicomico on the eastern shore.

 

Well that came out of nowhere....  Pretty clear circulation around the center of the photo with a lot of clouds rushing in from the right side.  Blew over with about a minute of heavy rain without hail.  Made an odd sound as it went overhead though...

 

IMG_20130701_165439_129.jpg

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This is a lot more exciting than the wx here lately

 

this was over Huntington, WV at Tri State Airport , just a biiiiiit bumpy

 

   PIREP 22:22Z 07/01/13
   HTS UUA /OV HVQ250050/TM 2222/FL410/TP B753/TB MOD-SEV/RM PILOT STATED IF THEY HAD PAX THEY WOULD BE ON FLOOR
 

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Little cell north of La Plata bit of rotation

TORLWX

MDC033-020000-

/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0021.130701T2329Z-130702T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

729 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 730 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS 5 MILES SOUTH OF CLINTON...OR NEAR WALDORF...AND WAS

  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  CLINTON...

  MARLTON...

  ANDREWS AFB...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR

VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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Tomorrow could be an all day rainer, that gulf area is expansive. What do you all think will happen because topping 80 would be tough if it's a steady rain thru 7pm tomorrow?

 

 

Without a clear low level boundary, I doubt it will be rain all day though showers in the morning could dampen the instability some.  There is lots of moisture around and if a band does form somewhere with the cells oriented north to south, then someone could get flash flooding.  

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Looks sort of like a repeat of today but maybe a bit more potential, with everything maybe west a bit. I want a wall cloud so hopefully not too far west. ;)

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