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The Big Wet of 2013


Wow

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I had some hope of at least getting enough rain to wet the ground but the radar is looking worse every minute for my area. It's beginning to look like only a small area misses the good rain, but I'm in that area. Still basically only a trace here now in 8 days.

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Slowly taking Storm Tracker in huh? :P 

 

:lol: 

 

Radar looks quite active in eastern NC/SC.  Training precip with high moisture content.  Many of these areas have already seen a lot of rain.  Totals over the last 7 days...

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That looks about right for my area. MBY has only seen about an inch  :) 

 

im sorry

I laughed   :ph34r:

 

Just went through a band that flooded the road I was on, couldn't even see the road, then bam, waters rushing over bout took me off the road.  

Turn around, don't drown  <_<

 

Turn around, don't drown

Indeed  :wub: 

 

Riding the dry slot again.  Plenty of rain a few miles west. I saw this same scenario last year...flooding a county, or two, over...sand dunes here.  T

.70 for the start of July here, with most of it falling as a steady sprinkle   ^_^   

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A no-brainer, GSP went ahead and extended the Flood Watches for their NC Counties until 8 pm tomorrow. I got a feeling the rains are ramping up overnight for the Southern and Eastern escarpment in WNC...prob the worst being in those far western counties of the CWA.
i am 120 miles from my final destination of cherokee, nc..800 mile day from FLL, will report on conditions as needed..im used to big rains in sofla but different setup in.the mtns then FLL that easily handles 5 inch rainfalls..hoping the machine gets going per gfs
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Wow heavy heavy rainfall. River is on the rise in a major way. Lots of water on the roads and pretty much everywhere you look there is a stream somewhere or a new pond that has formed. Looking at the radar it looks like we will be stuck in this like pretty much all night. We have had some lightning also this afternoon.

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1.29" is the total so far. Creek nearby got within a few feet of topping its banks earlier this afternoon.

Definitely in a big lull right now. We'll see if things fire back up later on. Also, as I feared yesterday, many cities around Atlanta cancelled their fireworks for tonight and all we have right now is cloudy skies...

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This has been an interesting system for sure. As many know, I don't usually go by QPF exactly but I fell for GFS when it showed run after run of the areas it was pegging, but it was clear early on it was missing the Piedmont of SC and NC into Southern , SE VA regions.  Yet it kept things too far west, and so did the RAP many times. NAM was just too dry overall, almost every run.  It was becoming clear that models were continuously missing the boat in the Carolinas especially, because of some unique factors, but many also threw in the towel too soon for Georgia and western SC, NC I think.  At first I doubted if the models would catch upslope properly especially since they were always too light the last three days on the eastern flank of the plume, so I carried that miscalculation over to western SC , NC and sw VA regions and forecast just a bit early the rain to begin. Well it finally did arrive today, but probably won't last, and you can see why on Water Vapor loops. The ridge in the Atlantic pushed in quickly and its a unique transformation that really made it possible to skip most of western Columbia through the lower Upstate to central and eastern GA especially, right up to my backyard. I've had a quarter inch total in 3 days.  But I'm fine with that, since it's been 2 consecutive VERY wet years here, but my forecast region is huge, and I think I've done ok in other places, even though the final verdict isn't in yet since it's still in progress. I liked the idea of a convergence zone for w NC, w SC, ne GA this afternoon as well as more onshore flow for the Coastal Plain and a new band of development in Alabama and middle TN.   That region is going to be the one to watch next couple of days.   I still think it's a rough night with extreme upslope (and yes I know the definition of upslope in this case, isn't perfectly aligned with the textbook def. but convergence and other factors taken into account worked out well there), plus forcing will shift west to central Alabama to central and eastern TN, where big totals and extreme amounts and a new convergence line takes place. Look how powerful the flow is, and you'll likely not see this again for a while. A strong Bermuda Ridge and a strong deep lower Miss. Valley trough.

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I agree with many on here, that this was a bad case of modeling on the QPF, both in NAM, GFS and I 'd say the RAP as well, as it was off literally in upstate 2 separate times as well as missing the eastern piedmont atleast twice.  Very unsual and a let down to me, since I really like that model, my only excuse is the unprecedented flow and the fact this is linear convection at times complicated with seabreeze interactions and the fact that the lee of the Apps is always a super -hard place to forecast for, year round.  So to round off , I think NWS did an excellent job and my long lead outlook last week was in general "okay" but I'd cut amounts somewhat in some areas, and up them in other areas.  Still, we will have a 594 ridge basically holding in the same position most of the week, and the big unknown is if anything tropical or subtropical develops under it and scoots west..toward the Gulf, because it may. Even without it though,a southerly flow rounding the west side of that HUGE ridge, means that daily convection will be abundant pretty much from the Coast of VA, NC, SC and points west, with a  max west of the Apps and probably along the Apps themselves, and I'd say, the seabreeze in Coastal plain still kicks in, even with this ridge.  Also, like a dam on the western wall of this big ridge, somebody will end up with a 60,000 foot cell over them at some point. I've seen it a million times with ridges like this, and even though storms nearer its eastern edge are few and far between, they usually bust a cap in a massive way and give some lucky folks a storm they'll never forget, so we're heading toward that this weekend probably east of the Apps. West of the Apps, a lot of rain.  Sure beats last few Summers (but I also say that last Summer we had heights on average just at normal, even though we ended up having a super heat wave) so we're due to have an average to below average Summer in the temps department.  That's not to say at some point we won't have a closed ridge right over the Southeast somewhere, if and when that happens, we'll get HOT...but so far, no real signs of that yet. Plus, the first week of that ridge will go right into sucking moisture out of the wet grounds, and that equates to lessening the actual temps, but pumping the Heat Index. No drought....best news of all.

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Robert, Thanks for taking time to post! A lot of what you posted on your site before this event is coming to fruition in the Mnts. of WNC. Twitter is a blaze with reports of flash flooding, flooding, mudslides, sinkholes, & water rescues. As you said in your post when you forecast a large area there are gonna be some hits & misses. NC Mnts was spot on & for that I would say job well done.

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