isohume Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Wow, the models are struggling with this event! Both NAM and GFS failed to pick up on the northward-moving convection from Atlanta this morning. They had bullseyes over the SC upstate and portions of the wNC mountains, which have also largely not materialized. Meanwhile, the RAP model seems to have captured this way better, putting the focus for heavy precip into the corridor from Atlanta to Nashville. I agree. The RAP also keeps most of the Carolina's high and dry today. Given weakening radar returns, and the lack of any appreciable precipitation in SC or eastern GA, I am inclined to agree with this. Might be time to cancel the Flood Watch for NC, SC, and eastern GA. The FF.A wont be canceled with ongoing precip and afternoon convective precip yet to develop. Especially around CLT and the nrn fhills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 The FF.A wont be canceled with ongoing precip and afternoon convective precip yet to develop. Especially around CLT and the nrn fhills. It's the "yet to develop" part that concerns me. The RAP doesn't show it and it has been pretty much spot on last few days. The forcing all appears to have shifted west, including whatever is coming out of the Florida panhandle. Given how poorly the NAM, and now GFS, have performed for this event, I am not seeing what will provide the focus for convective development this afternoon. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 It's the "yet to develop" part that concerns me. The RAP doesn't show it and it has been pretty much spot on last few days. The forcing all appears to have shifted west, including whatever is coming out of the Florida panhandle. Given how poorly the NAM, and now GFS, have performed for this event, I am not seeing what will provide the focus for convective development this afternoon. What am I missing? The mtns will likely see the brunt of the precip today, but there is some channeled vort and ulvl div to enhance areas of differential heating non/mtns and perhaps training cells. Certainly enough of a potential to keep the watch given the antecedent conds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Up to 4 inches in Cleveland now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 After reading FFC's analysis and checking the discussion here, I would be particularly concerned for west of I-85 in GA to I-65 in AL today, tonight and early tomorrow. I'm would be surprised to exceed 1" for the duration at my location, I think Tony's seed planting has done me in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 No, just enjoying your daily visits. Ouch Thanks for the post. Certainly seems like the models are suggesting a more subtle pattern shift with the forecast, implying that the mountains of wNC may be spared. The focus appears to be shifting to the west over central and eastern Tennessee. I no longer think 6-10" are probable for anywhere in the mountains, and I am beginning to doubt 3-5" as well. The main problem as I see it is really two-fold: 1. The flow has NOT been perpendicular to the mountain chain as earlier forecast. With the positions of the low out west and the Bermuda High being slightly different than originally anticipated, the flow has been contstant southwesterly, parallel to the mountains, instead of the ideal south-southeasterly flow that brings best mechanical forcing. This reason alone is enough to drop rain forecast totals - but the models now also suggest the flow will never become southerly. 2. The entire shift west in the placement of the atmospheric river has meant a change in the dynamics. The 250mb jet entrance region is west, over TN, and the low-level jet is now forecast to be oriented west towards CHA and TYS. Based on this reasoning, it stands to argue a dramatic reduction in forecast rain totals in the wNC mountains, but also a substantial increase in rain totals across eastern TN. I think 12" of rain somewhere east of Nashville and the NC state line is likely. For the mountains of wNC, 1-3" now seems far more probable. Keep talking like this Hurricane Tracker, this sounds better for me. Hopefully it wont be as bad in AVL and area on Friday. We have defintely seen the west ward shift up here west of DC. Today is the first day of rain in the last 5 days and about a third of an inch since midnight up here. I know it will be a wet ride down to Blacksburg tonight and then AVL tomorrow but thats fine if I can salvage Fri and Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 As Isohume stated, the mountains are going to get the majority of precip today in the Greer CWA thanks to a decent upslope flow. I still think those along the immediate ridge line needs to keep an eye on elevated water levels. A couple areas in WNC including the Blue Ridge in Avery, Mitchell and Northern McDowell along with areas of Transylvania/Southern Jackson has received some decent totals over the past 48 hours. Since the GFS has been handling this event poorly, I'm interested to see if there is any legitimacy behind the strong 500 mb vort/surface low that the GFS is developing in the Eastern GOM. The 6z model run verbatim pulls the upper feature into the Florida Panhandle late tonight and then up along the GA/AL line to a position in NW Georgia close to Rome by tomorrow night. Seems like that would keep the far western mountains in North Carolina active...but then again, the GFS has missed out on some things so far in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 As Isohume stated, the mountains are going to get the majority of precip today in the Greer CWA thanks to a decent upslope flow. I still think those along the immediate ridge line needs to keep an eye on elevated water levels. A couple areas in WNC including the Blue Ridge in Avery, Mitchell and Northern McDowell along with areas of Transylvania/Southern Jackson has received some decent totals over the past 48 hours. Since the GFS has been handling this event poorly, I'm interested to see if there is any legitimacy behind the strong 500 mb vort/surface low that the GFS is developing in the Eastern GOM. The 6z model run verbatim pulls the upper feature into the Florida Panhandle late tonight and then up along the GA/AL line to a position in NW Georgia close to Rome by tomorrow night. Seems like that would keep the far western mountains in North Carolina active...but then again, the GFS has missed out on some things so far in this pattern. My point earlier is that the "decent upslope flow" isn't all that decent. The showers are tiny, fast-movers, that die out quickly. That is not traditionally known as "decent upslope." Sure, a few showers are in fact developing in the upslope flow, but their coverage and intensity lacks the characteristics of a truly decent event. The recent HRRR wants to develop more convection today in FL and SC, but it hasn't got anything right yet this year, so I have no reason to latch onto it. The best jet divergence has moved west, and with the apex of the low-level jet from ATL to Knoxville. This is the new corridor for heavy flash flooding that I would be concerned about. I think most of SC and NC are in the "clear." We have all the ingredients for heavy rain wNC, upstate SC, and the foothills NC...except one. Forcing. There just isn't any - and that which is available is west. FWIW, the 00Z ECMWF has no such low moving up from the FL Panhandle. Thus, I would toss both GFS and NAM solutions that are showing it. The state of numerical modeling in America is going downhill fast. It seems the RAP is outpacing them all. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 FWIW, the 00Z ECMWF has no such low moving up from the FL Panhandle. Thus, I would toss both GFS and NAM solutions that are showing it. The state of numerical modeling in America is going downhill fast. It seems the RAP is outpacing them all. Unreal.Euro is the only model not showing a weak surface low moving up from the Florida Panhandle. The environment will be similar to that of a landfalling tropical cyclone. Heavy rain, strong winds, rip currents, and isolated tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 it has been pouring all night and morning in Franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Maybe the NWS needs to just quit trying to fix the NAM and GFS and try coming up with a completely new model. Euro model is only one the needs to be used right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Euro is the only model not showing a weak surface low moving up from the Florida Panhandle. The environment will be similar to that of a landfalling tropical cyclone. Heavy rain, strong winds, rip currents, and isolated tornadoes. The environment will be similar, I agree. But an actual surface low? If ECMWF doesn't show it, it likely isn't going to happen. Let's see what the 12Z doc has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Maybe the NWS needs to just quit trying to fix the NAM and GFS and try coming up with a completely new model. Euro model is only one the needs to be used right now. My idea: nix the NAM altogether. Take existing resources devoted to it, and beef up the GFS. Let it run only twice a day, 12Z and 00Z, with higher resolution and better data ingest (ala ECMWF). Then compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 After reading FFC's analysis and checking the discussion here, I would be particularly concerned for west of I-85 in GA to I-65 in AL today, tonight and early tomorrow. I'm would be surprised to exceed 1" for the duration at my location, I think Tony's seed planting has done me in! Kyle, I do apologize! Now into my 14th day with nothing in the bottom of the gauge. All the rain that was missing us to the east, is now missing us to the west. I had fear when the word went out about all the rain coming. It just doesn't count if it's not on me, lol. And with the Moles in Savannah, I can see the camels starting to move back into the picture. I'm going out after a while and wash the van, and car. It's the only weapon I have left to counteract the seed dispersal...an act of which I am mortally ashamed. But who knew...they kept saying it would rain!!! And they are meteor ologists! I suspect now it was a rain of space dust I was to experience. Oh, well, at least it will be dry for my firework display....I have one rocket and 3 cherry bombs, lol. Though I'm a bit afraid to set them off as dry as it is!! T Edit: Well, it's been so dry, I sort of forgot about the .8 the other day, lol. That should read 14 days with less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 My idea: nix the NAM altogether. Take existing resources devoted to it, and beef up the GFS. Let it run only twice a day, 12Z and 00Z, with higher resolution and better data ingest (ala ECMWF). Then compare.Yeah maybe getting rid of the gfs is too much but the nam is almost useless for sure. I would agree with getting rid of the NAM and putting all resources into the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Radar looks quite active in eastern NC/SC. Training precip with high moisture content. Many of these areas have already seen a lot of rain. Totals over the last 7 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 We are getting hammered here in Haywood. Been raining all morning but this by far is the heaviest rain we have seen with this system. Lots of water on the roads and ponding is a major issue right know. Had to stop and remove some pretty big tree limbs out of the roads across the county. Streams starting to show signs of filling back up so I figured if this keeps up then we will have flooding issues later today and tonight. That line from the Gulf is pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 That line from the Gulf is pretty amazing. Yeah, that is one hellacious feed of training, heavy precip from Panama City to just west of Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Yeah, that is one hellacious feed of training, heavy precip from Panama City to just west of Atlanta You ain't kidding! That line originates from the Caribbean and is bringing torrential rains to my DMA as we speak. The heaviest activity has been just west of Columbus, but it's building east. Some spots near LaGrange, GA and Lafayette, AL (Chambers County/north of Auburn, AL) have already seen 3-4" of rain since midnight with more on the way. The new Whitewater Rapids on the Chattahoochee River here in Columbus should be quite the sight come tomorrow afternoon. That moisture feed isn't going anywhere either. It'll be over Eastern AL/Western GA for another 24-36 hours before crawling west. I can't wait to see how much rain we pick up, officially, before all is said and done. Oh, and got to love sales people/viewers getting upset at us for all the wet weather. We've had this rain in the forecast for the past 5-6 days, at least, and they act like it's coming out of nowhere... *le sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 You ain't kidding! That line originates from the Caribbean and is bringing torrential rains to my DMA as we speak. Rutgers Water Vapor loop shows it well - http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=east&url=../imgs/wv2_east_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Well we know who is taking a bath today so far... 1225 PM HEAVY RAIN INLET BEACH 30.28N 86.01W07/03/2013 M8.75 INCH WALTON FL BROADCAST MEDIA RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT. RELAYED BY WJHG-TV METEOROLOGIST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Getting hammered here in Holly Springs, too... the line of storms extending south into the GOM - glad I am at the top of a hill... a little worried about the Etowah river nearby, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Still hammering here. If that line really gets going into the southern Apps watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Well I haven't had to use the ark yet,I've only had .42 for the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 The 12z GFS still shows my location getting close to 3 inches over the next couple of days, but I don't know if it can be trusted or not. And has a bullseye of 10 inches of total precip on the 384 map over the mountains od SC and NC. The radar does look slightly better today but the 2 trains of precip could still miss most of the upstate with the eastern one nailing central NC again. And of course the big band along the Al and GA border where huge rain amounts are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Getting hammered here in Holly Springs, too... the line of storms extending south into the GOM - glad I am at the top of a hill... a little worried about the Etowah river nearby, though... 575 has been known to flood out if gets bad enough. It has to really hit hard to do it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 124 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 116 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER FROM NEAR MORGAN FALLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY NEAR CHATTAHOOCHEE HILLS COUNTRY. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...ALPHARETTA...DOUGLASVILLE...LITHIA SPRINGS... AUSTELL...POWDER SPRINGS...SMYRNA...MARIETTA AND KENNESAW. BASINS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE TRIBUTARIES OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND UPPER FLINT RIVERS...INCLUDING SEWELL MILL CREEK..NICKAJACK CREEK... SWEETWATER CREEK...CEDAR CREEK...BEAR CREEK...AND LINE CREEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Sitting right at 1" right now. I'm on the very edge of that Flash Flood Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 If you look at the Columbia SC Doppler, there has been a pretty solid area developing along the Savannah River Basin that is moving due north. For those farther north into the SC Upstate and eventually the North Carolina Foothills/Western Piedmont, that is what could be lurking down the pipeline. Also with the focus or rain being in Western Georgia, it has allowed the Savannah River Valley and northward to build up some surface instability which in this kind of moisture environment is all you need to produce some efficient rains. The latest RAP model (16z) really wants to use that Surface CAPE to expand rain coverage into the Upstate by late afternoon. It also is bending a piece of the Gulf moisture tap toward Western North Carolina overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 575 has been known to flood out if gets bad enough. It has to really hit hard to do it though Yeah - in 2009 (I believe) it flooded big time... ruined a lot of RVs at the RV place, flooded out Checkers, Ruby Tuesdays, etc. on Hwy 92 - it was nasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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