metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Lol, 1-2 feet possible in the Tallahassee forecast area. The global models forecast plenty of deep layer Q-G forcing tonight, and the various Convection Allowing Models (CAM) show plenty of convective bands as well, though we may see a bit of a decrease (albeit temporary) in rain between 06 UTC and 12 UTC. Based on some of the new CAM runs (which show extraordinary but believable isolated QPF bulls eyes of 1-2 feet of rain from tonight through Thursday) http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=TAE&StateCode=FL&SafeCityName=Tallahassee&NOEXPAND=1&MR=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 I see no need for the flood watches in north GA and upstate SC.Obviously you haven't checked the models. You guys are in for a significant amount of rain, but I could see why you say that. I was expecting a significant amount of rain as well, but we missed all the action every day. You can tell by the distribution of the flood watches. Entire state of Georgia under a flood watch except the SE part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 The Gulf pipeline is opening up as we speak. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Those slow moving moisture plume along with a the 40kt wind Marion talked about are just going to make the escarpment a dumping ground for rain. Sorry 85!....didn't see your post above when I posted. One good thing with the sun coming out today was I got to mow the yard & finished just after sunset....another couple inches of water and I probably would have been able to cut it and sell it! Ah it's ok. I think there were some great points made today about not letting down your guard. Tracker has brought some great points to the table along with Marion and others. I think for the mountains we are really just getting started with this event and we alrady have had some pretty good totals. Once you get under one of those showers you get dumped on. As you said you can really tell the gulf is starting to open up. We will see more coverage over night coming off the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Obviously you haven't checked the models. You guys are in for a significant amount of rain, but I could see why you say that. I was expecting a significant amount of rain as well, but we missed all the action every day. You can tell by the distribution of the flood watches. Entire state of Georgia under a flood watch except the SE part. New nam says my location barely gets 1 inch now. That's nothing for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 I'd imagine those are up because flash flood guidance is so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 New nam says my location barely gets 1 inch now. That's nothing for this time of year.Well yeah. Your area is going to be east of the heaviest rain. 00z NAM says that tomorrow is the last day of rain for your backyard along with the majority of SC and NC. That's just the NAM though and models could easily be underestimating the totals or the other way around. It won't take much to cause flooding up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Where is a good site to go to see precip amounts across a region for, say, the last five days or so? TIA! http://water.weather.gov/precip/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Looks like both the nam and gfs are useless for tonight for upstate SC. Both of the show between .50 and 1 inch of rain before 8am but unless the radar changes quickly that just is not going to happen. Which based on the nam means the event is done for my location as of now. Storm total for this event is just over a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Interesting from ATL. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BIG CREEK NEAR ALPHARETTA.* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.* AT 10 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.8 FEET...AND STEADY.* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET.* THE RIVER WILL BEGIN TO RISE TO NEAR 8.1 FEET BY EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.* AT 8 FEET...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO EXPAND FURTHER INTO THE WOODLANDS AND FIELDS ALONG THE CREEK FROM NEAR CUMMING IN SOUTH FORSYTH COUNTY TO ALPHARETTA AND ROSWELL IN NORTH FULTON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE BIG CREEK GREENWAY HAVE MINOR FLOODING WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER. MOST OF THE WALKING AND BIKING PATHS WILL BE CLOSED...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GAGE ON KIMBALL BRIDGE ROAD AND NEAR ROCK HILL PARK. PORTIONS OF THE YMCA CAMPGROUND OFF PRESTON RIDGE ROAD WILL FLOOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Storms training in TN have brought flooding over the past few hours.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED AN* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CLEVELAND... HAMILTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MEIGS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DECATUR... EXTREME WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...* UNTIL 415 AM EDT* AT 112 AM EDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALFINCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHEASTTENNESSEE FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVINGNORTH ACROSS THE SAME AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 It's pretty obvious where the conveyor belt or "pipeline" is now establishing itself here during the overnight hours. Right now there is not a ton of precip along that pipeline but it will be a breeding ground for precipitation anytime after daylight. This is an extremely deep flow so I expect it to again fill in easily on Wednesday. For Western North Carolina the heart of this precip event begins today...we shall see how constant the rainfall rates are. Honestly I think we'll be surprised at how quick we could get to the 3+ inch storm total that I originally called for and those localized areas over 6 inches. IMBY, so far I have picked up around 1.2 inches since late Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 You can already tell even at 5 in the morning how the Gulf is going to really amp up the rain. Showers and storms are already starting to breakout across the SE in GA,AL, and TN, and WNC. As you said Marion pretty much game on when the sun comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Wow is it humid out there right know. Feels like you are at the beach. Things are going to pop today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Slowly taking Storm Tracker in huh? No, just enjoying your daily visits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Showers and storms are developing pretty well along the NC/SC boarder coming into the mountains. Looks like Asheville is fixing to get hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Not that it really matters but this mornings run of the GFS is really showing the southern APPS getting hammered the next few days with several inches of rain along with GA, AL, and TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 3.54" for the last 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/07/02/3006645/as-triangle-residents-tire-of.html Recent heavy rains have forced people inside. But the storms may finally be coming to an end this weekend as the high pressure system causing the rain moves away from the NC coast. As Triangle residents tire of rain, relief may finally be on the way By Caitlin Owens and Kelsey Rupp — [email protected] [email protected] Never mind all the fancy meteorological terms for the Triangle’s wet weather of the past week. Kids taking part in a triathlon-training camp sum it up in three words of their own: “Cloudy. Muddy. Floody.” Across the area, residents continued to deal with abnormally soggy conditions Tuesday. Flooding cleanup continued in Chapel Hill, as the National Weather Service extended the latest flash flood watch into Wednesday evening. Town leaders kept a wary eye on the skies and their planned Fourth of July festivities. Garner made the call to move its Wednesday night celebration to Friday night. And from swimming pools to summer camps, people hoped for some relief. “High pressure normally means nice weather, blue skies, sunshine,” said Don Schwenneker, meteorologist at ABC-11. “But on the edge of it, you can get into what is being rotated around it. So right now it is pulling moisture across us, and we are getting pounded.” Schwenneker said a “Bermuda High,” an area of high pressure that forms over the Atlantic Ocean during the summer and is a key weather player for most of the Eastern United States, is to blame for the recent heavy rainfall. North Carolina is on the edge of the system and, because the Bermuda High rotates clockwise, it pumps water from the ocean onto the East Coast. Last month was the third wettest June on record for North Carolina, with 10.08 inches of rain – 6.56 inches above the state’s June average of 3.52 inches. The good news is that by Thursday, Schwenneker expects the heavy rain to stop and the ground to begin drying. But he acknowledged that making summer forecasts is difficult. At Raleigh’s Optimist Park on Tuesday, young participants in the Kids Tri Camp were making the best of the wet weather as they swam, biked and ran to train for triathlons. “I don’t need to shower now!” joked Caroline Bauldree, 11, after getting caught in a downpour. The Bermuda High also has the advantage of keeping extremely hot weather away. The average temperature for June is 87 degrees, but this year the June average was 85 degrees. And June’s high, 94 degrees, was 11 degrees lower than last June’s high of 105 degrees, Schwenneker said. Winners and losers Rain creates problems for people like Terri Stroupe, aquatics director for the city of Raleigh. City pools must shut down for 30 minutes following thunder or lightning, sometimes interrupting swim team practices, swim lessons, camps or family outings. Farmers also might be affected by excessive rain, said Michael Moneypenny of the National Weather Service. “There is the risk of the roots being drowned and farmers facing that loss of income,” he said. But Stephen Davenport, owner of Raleigh Lawn Care and Landscaping, said soggy weather brings him more business because grass grows quicker than normal and storms leave behind debris that needs to be cleaned from yards. “I’m glad it’s wet because of the simple fact that when the grass grows, my money grows,” he said. Rainfall also means business picks up at AMF Pleasant Valley Lanes, a local bowling alley. Patrick Eckstein, a counter attendant, said lane use increases between 15 percent and 20 percent as people search for indoor activities. No drought fear And there’s one other benefit to all this rain – North Carolina residents likely won’t experience a drought this summer. Both Jordan Lake and Falls Lake, watersheds managed primarily for flood control and managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, are a few feet above their normal levels. The lakes will provide enough surplus water for the area even if the rest of the summer experiences below average precipitation levels. Even though July has started on a particularly wet note, temperature and precipitation projections for the month call for average values of 90 degrees and 4.7 inches of rain. Owens: 919-829-4567 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 I commute to Cleveland, TN for work now, and they got absolutely hammered last night. 3+ inches of rain over most of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Looks like the moisture train has shifted west now, but way west into Al, West GA, and he mountains of NC and TN. The heavy rain has skipped right over upstate SC and much of east central GA. Attention in the areas now turns to the hot dry weather expected for the next week or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 It's pretty obvious where the conveyor belt or "pipeline" is now establishing itself here during the overnight hours. Right now there is not a ton of precip along that pipeline but it will be a breeding ground for precipitation anytime after daylight. This is an extremely deep flow so I expect it to again fill in easily on Wednesday. For Western North Carolina the heart of this precip event begins today...we shall see how constant the rainfall rates are. Honestly I think we'll be surprised at how quick we could get to the 3+ inch storm total that I originally called for and those localized areas over 6 inches. IMBY, so far I have picked up around 1.2 inches since late Sunday night. Thanks for the post. Certainly seems like the models are suggesting a more subtle pattern shift with the forecast, implying that the mountains of wNC may be spared. The focus appears to be shifting to the west over central and eastern Tennessee. I no longer think 6-10" are probable for anywhere in the mountains, and I am beginning to doubt 3-5" as well. The main problem as I see it is really two-fold: 1. The flow has NOT been perpendicular to the mountain chain as earlier forecast. With the positions of the low out west and the Bermuda High being slightly different than originally anticipated, the flow has been contstant southwesterly, parallel to the mountains, instead of the ideal south-southeasterly flow that brings best mechanical forcing. This reason alone is enough to drop rain forecast totals - but the models now also suggest the flow will never become southerly. 2. The entire shift west in the placement of the atmospheric river has meant a change in the dynamics. The 250mb jet entrance region is west, over TN, and the low-level jet is now forecast to be oriented west towards CHA and TYS. Based on this reasoning, it stands to argue a dramatic reduction in forecast rain totals in the wNC mountains, but also a substantial increase in rain totals across eastern TN. I think 12" of rain somewhere east of Nashville and the NC state line is likely. For the mountains of wNC, 1-3" now seems far more probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 What is that bright shiny thing in the blue sky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Thanks for the post. Certainly seems like the models are suggesting a more subtle pattern shift with the forecast, implying that the mountains of wNC may be spared. The focus appears to be shifting to the west over central and eastern Tennessee. I no longer think 6-10" are probable for anywhere in the mountains, and I am beginning to doubt 3-5" as well. The main problem as I see it is really two-fold: 1. The flow has NOT been perpendicular to the mountain chain as earlier forecast. With the positions of the low out west and the Bermuda High being slightly different than originally anticipated, the flow has been contstant southwesterly, parallel to the mountains, instead of the ideal south-southeasterly flow that brings best mechanical forcing. This reason alone is enough to drop rain forecast totals - but the models now also suggest the flow will never become southerly. 2. The entire shift west in the placement of the atmospheric river has meant a change in the dynamics. The 250mb jet entrance region is west, over TN, and the low-level jet is now forecast to be oriented west towards CHA and TYS. Based on this reasoning, it stands to argue a dramatic reduction in forecast rain totals in the wNC mountains, but also a substantial increase in rain totals across eastern TN. I think 12" of rain somewhere east of Nashville and the NC state line is likely. For the mountains of wNC, 1-3" now seems far more probable. Did the NAM show this a couple of days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Did the NAM show this a couple of days ago? Ha ha. We don't talk about the NAM anymore. It sucks in every way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 What is that bright shiny thing in the blue sky?The sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 picked up .51 last nite thru 9 this am brings my total for this event to 5.86 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 http://water.weather.gov/precip/ Thanks Grit! I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_rfc.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Wow, the models are struggling with this event! Both NAM and GFS failed to pick up on the northward-moving convection from Atlanta this morning. They had bullseyes over the SC upstate and portions of the wNC mountains, which have also largely not materialized. Meanwhile, the RAP model seems to have captured this way better, putting the focus for heavy precip into the corridor from Atlanta to Nashville. I agree. The RAP also keeps most of the Carolina's high and dry today. Given weakening radar returns, and the lack of any appreciable precipitation in SC or eastern GA, I am inclined to agree with this. Might be time to cancel the Flood Watch for NC, SC, and eastern GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Wow, the models are struggling with this event! Both NAM and GFS failed to pick up on the northward-moving convection from Atlanta this morning. They had bullseyes over the SC upstate and portions of the wNC mountains, which have also largely not materialized. Meanwhile, the RAP model seems to have captured this way better, putting the focus for heavy precip into the corridor from Atlanta to Nashville. I agree. The RAP also keeps most of the Carolina's high and dry today. Given weakening radar returns, and the lack of any appreciable precipitation in SC or eastern GA, I am inclined to agree with this. Might be time to cancel the Flood Watch for NC, SC, and eastern GA. 100% agree with this. GFS and NAM have been useless for this event. But of course they are usually right when they show hot dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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