NCsandhills Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Picked up 11 inches of rain for june, including 1.5" on the 30th, and 1" yesterday and 1" so far today. A few roads closed off. Still raining. All everyone was talking about on our cigarette break was the flooding/rain. Pretty sweet. Fayetteville Technical Community College: Water on this sidewalk was over my ankles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted July 2, 2013 Author Share Posted July 2, 2013 Picked up 11 inches of rain for june, including 1.5" on the 30th, and 1" yesterday and 1" so far today. A few roads closed off. Still raining. All everyone was talking about on our cigarette break was the flooding/rain. Pretty sweet. Fayetteville Technical Community College: Water on this sidewalk was over my ankles. I forgot how easily it is to flood over the the coastal region. I've been living on the side of a hill for too long! Wait... people still smoke cigarettes?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I forgot how easily it is to flood over the the coastal region. I've been living on the side of a hill for too long! Wait... people still smoke cigarettes?? Is Fayetteville considered coastal region? We're pretty far inland. We're kind of in between the piedmont and coastal plain. Everyone in college smokes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Just wanna throw this out there to the Western North Carolina crowd... I hope you guys and gals don't let your guard down just because the mountains have not seen widespread rain yet. The models continue to look very ominous for the Southern Appalachian Region starting tomorrow and last through a good part of Thursday the 4th. So far there has been a stripe of heavy rains that has fallen from roughly GSP northeastward into the North Carolina foothill counties of Polk, Rutherford, Burke and Caldwell. If you look at the Regional Radar you can see a definite band of heavy precip that's arcs from off the Southeast US coastline up through the South Carolina Low Country and into the North Carolina Piedmont and Sandhills. Be on the lookout tonight for precip to starting developing more over the Florida Panhandle and up through South and Central parts of Georgia. That pipeline will start to establish itself and make a move at the Southern Appalachians. Then once you get up into the SoApps, they will be the benfeciary of a 40+ kt flow just above the surface from the south and southeast... My worry right now is that some along the Blue Ridge and Smokies may put their guard down...I would highly advise against that. I'm thinking that by an early timeframe tomorrow, conditions will quickly begin to go downhill in Western NC/SC, North and Eastern GA, East TN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Very heavy rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted July 2, 2013 Author Share Posted July 2, 2013 Is Fayetteville considered coastal region? We're pretty far inland. We're kind of in between the piedmont and coastal plain. Everyone in college smokes lol Always figured Fayetteville inside the inner coastal plain region - east of the fall line. IOW, it's flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Trees are just falling for no reason around here ... the ground is just too wet! I wonder how Widre made it out in the CH flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 We should bring back the weenie tags and snowstorm should get the first one. That brings back memories.....the pink weenie tags. I think that was when we were still Easternwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 The models continue to slowly back off on the event and I believe they are still too wet outside of the mountains. We have barely had enough rain to wet the ground here and haven't really had a good rain in a week now. Of course the hot dry weather forecast over the weekend into next week will happen since the models hardly ever miss with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Just wanna throw this out there to the Western North Carolina crowd... I hope you guys and gals don't let your guard down just because the mountains have not seen widespread rain yet. The models continue to look very ominous for the Southern Appalachian Region starting tomorrow and last through a good part of Thursday the 4th. My worry right now is that some along the Blue Ridge and Smokies may put their guard down...I would highly advise against that. I'm thinking that by an early timeframe tomorrow, conditions will quickly begin to go downhill in Western NC/SC, North and Eastern GA, East TN... Good post. I can tell you from being at the office today, a few folks have let their guard down. Sunshine and clear skies while under a flood watch don't really go together that well. After this morning's showers, we had pretty clear blue skies most of the day. Incredibly deceiving. So some folks do in fact think the event is either over (!) or won't happen to the magnitude earlier thought. I showed some folks the map Foothills made and people laughed and said it will never happen - look how sunny it is! Interesting food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Flying back to my stomping grounds in the ATL on Thursday morning. Anyone have thoughts to how bad the rain/storms may be for a 930 AM landing? The last thing I want is a delayed or cancelled flight for only a mini vacation. Thanks a bunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Flying back to my stomping grounds in the ATL on Thursday morning. Anyone have thoughts to how bad the rain/storms may be for a 930 AM landing? The last thing I want is a delayed or cancelled flight for only a mini vacation. Thanks a bunch! You flying out of EWR? It maybe delayed but I dont think it would canceled. could be ground delays or a few periods of ground stops at ATL if the rain and or thunderstorms are intense. Otherwise prepare for some delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 If it is not already on the agenda, I would highly recommend checking out the waterfalls at Dupont State Forest; with this rain they should be incredible. See Rainforrest's totals above and it is far from over. FYI, article in today's Asheville Citizen-Times about new bridge at Hooker Fall's parking area and new visitor center: http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20130702/OUTDOORS/307020010/Bridge-makes-DuPont-safer thanks for the link. Depends on the weather, looks defintely worth checking out though for sure. Hopefully Fri wont be a total washout and can get two days in. another flood watch up here for the 2nd day and nothing more than .01 has fallen up here with either flood watch. Hope it is a sign thanks again for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Flying out of Allentown, PA. I think the 0700 flight will help out. The models look to try and keep the heavy precip just to the northwest of the ATL in the morning. Fireworks and the Peachtree Roadrace look rather soggy. You flying out of EWR? It maybe delayed but I dont think it would canceled. could be ground delays or a few periods of ground stops at ATL if the rain and or thunderstorms are intense. Otherwise prepare for some delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Flying out of Allentown, PA. I think the 0700 flight will help out. The models look to try and keep the heavy precip just to the northwest of the ATL in the morning. Fireworks and the Peachtree Roadrace look rather soggy. I am flying out of Hartsfield tomorrow at 3pm and my wife at 9pm. I share your concerns about delays.... could be a monsoon or could be partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Flying out of Allentown, PA. I think the 0700 flight will help out. The models look to try and keep the heavy precip just to the northwest of the ATL in the morning. Fireworks and the Peachtree Roadrace look rather soggy. You should be fine, the last two days that flight operated by Express jet has taken off and landed on time or very close to it. The heavier stuff will be tomorrow afternoon after 1pm or so thru the evening in the ATL. You should be good to go and there is little delay at ABE usually. Probably will be a few Lgt-Mod turbulence but shouldnt be to bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I am flying out of Hartsfield tomorrow at 3pm and my wife at 9pm. I share your concerns about delays.... could be a monsoon or could be partly cloudy. I would place money on that you will be delayed for sure. sorry for the bad news but it sounds like you are counting on delays already due to mother nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I'm averaging about an inch a day... definitely moist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 It actually remained pretty dry here today. Most of the precip was off to the east, though it was still overcast all day long with frequent sprinkles and showers. Tomorrow still looks primed for some good rains, though, and we had some decent rain overnight and into the morning hours here. The NAM is going crazy with rain over the Western Piedmont and foothills over the next day-and-a-half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Picked up 0.64 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 picked up .67 this am lets see what tonite brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Beautiful outside this evening. I really hope this upcoming event comes to fruition if not over-performs. There are already people grumbling about the postponement of fireworks tomorrow night around here. Kennesaw postponed their festivities and fireworks that were scheduled for tomorrow night, and Acworth has done the same for their stuff on the 4th. If this event busts, there will be a lot of angry people haha. Personally, I'm looking forward to the next few days. It's already been a wet year, but I'll take what I can get because you never know when we'll flip back to bone dry. Should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 I'm averaging about an inch a day... definitely moist. Slowly taking Storm Tracker in huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 18z GFS backed totals for KCHA down from 6.5 to 6.0 inches and also increased the duration of the event. According to the raw data it will start raining here tomorrow afternoon and continue without stopping until Sunday morning. That kind of duration should help with flooding, but I am hesitant to believe that the rain will be light enough to prevent flash flooding, given that about 50% of that rain is expected to be convective in nature. Could still be underdone. It's also worth mentioning that it depicts rain falling for the next 16 days consecutively with a total of almost 10" here. Much of that is still in voodoo land though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Where is a good site to go to see precip amounts across a region for, say, the last five days or so? TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 I would place money on that you will be delayed for sure. sorry for the bad news but it sounds like you are counting on delays already due to mother nature I appreciate the input Dave. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Looking at the setup alone, and ignoring the model QPF for the moment, this event looks amazing synoptically; potentially even historic. The area will be near or under the 250mb jet entrance region, combined with increasing southerly flow, orthogonally aimed into the Apps (today is 10kt, but this increases to 35kt by Thursday). Model precipitable water values are 1.50-2.00" across the area through Friday before the Bermuda High shoves the moisture plume WEST into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. The ingredients are there for heavy rain, based on upslope potential alone and existing incredibly deep moisture supply. Throw in the jet dynamics and lobes of vorticity rotating around the big upper low out west and this only adds to the forcing. By Thursday, the flow from 850mb to 250mb becomes vertically stacked, from the Gulf of Mexico straight into the western Carolina's. Even the smallest showers on radar will be torrential downpours. If what we had last night is any indication (and it isn't since our PWATs were low yesterday), this could be a very busy 48-72 hours for the mountains of western North Carolina. QPF amounts will vary considerably across the high terrain. The GFS is notorious at always underdoing upslope events (whether NW flow snow, or southerly rains). The NAM should have this modeled better, but given the blocking pattern we are in, it is too quick moving the precip out on Friday morning. Even then its QPF is too low as well. Simply by accounting for all the above ingredients, it is a wonder why the models are too "dry." Parts of the southern escarpment already received 2-3" last night, and the same occurred near the TN line yesterday too. Area average was .75-1.50". NO MODEL caught onto these amounts!! So it seems likely that model QPF should be doubled, for area-averaged amounts of 3-5" in the next 72 hours. Some spots will undoubtedly see 6-10". Great write up. Like you said the next couple of days could be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Just wanna throw this out there to the Western North Carolina crowd... I hope you guys and gals don't let your guard down just because the mountains have not seen widespread rain yet. The models continue to look very ominous for the Southern Appalachian Region starting tomorrow and last through a good part of Thursday the 4th. So far there has been a stripe of heavy rains that has fallen from roughly GSP northeastward into the North Carolina foothill counties of Polk, Rutherford, Burke and Caldwell. If you look at the Regional Radar you can see a definite band of heavy precip that's arcs from off the Southeast US coastline up through the South Carolina Low Country and into the North Carolina Piedmont and Sandhills. Be on the lookout tonight for precip to starting developing more over the Florida Panhandle and up through South and Central parts of Georgia. That pipeline will start to establish itself and make a move at the Southern Appalachians. Then once you get up into the SoApps, they will be the benfeciary of a 40+ kt flow just above the surface from the south and southeast... My worry right now is that some along the Blue Ridge and Smokies may put their guard down...I would highly advise against that. I'm thinking that by an early timeframe tomorrow, conditions will quickly begin to go downhill in Western NC/SC, North and Eastern GA, East TN... Good points and at this time you can see an uptick in activity tonight and you can see the gulf starting to come into play as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 The Gulf pipeline is opening up as we speak. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Those slow moving moisture plume along with a the 40kt wind Marion talked about are just going to make the escarpment a dumping ground for rain. Sorry 85!....didn't see your post above when I posted. One good thing with the sun coming out today was I got to mow the yard & finished just after sunset....another couple inches of water and I probably would have been able to cut it and sell it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 If activity gets going in the gulf our moisture may get cut off. I'm still not convinced any really widespread heavy rain occurs with this. I see no need for the flood watches in north GA and upstate SC. The latest NAM run confirms my thinking for most of upstate SC. I imagine the GFS will back off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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