Met1985 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 00z NAM looks dry for the 4th of July for majority of us folks on here. Complete washout for Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Tennessee, and western North Carolina. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2013070200/nam_reflectivity_watl.html Lol ya that about as bad as it could look around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Not sure if the GFS is onto something or onto a big bust. Looking at tonights GFS model everthing misses the mountains and hits the foothills or hits GA,AL, and TN. It looks like the mountains do not even get an inch of rainfall through the 4th. This would be a good thing for outdoor activities and a big win by the GFS if this was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 GSP taking no chances with flooding and pulling a watch for just about everyone. RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...GREENWOOD340 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HASEXPANDED THE* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA... NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ELBERT...FRANKLIN... HABERSHAM...HART...RABUN AND STEPHENS. IN NORTH CAROLINA... ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL MOUNTAINS...CLEVELAND...EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK... GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL...GREATER RUTHERFORD... GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MACON... MADISON...MITCHELL...NORTHERN JACKSON...POLK MOUNTAINS... RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN JACKSON...SWAIN... TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...CHEROKEE...GREATER GREENVILLE... GREATER OCONEE...GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS... GREENWOOD...LAURENS...OCONEE MOUNTAINS...PICKENS MOUNTAINS... SPARTANBURG AND UNION SC.* FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.* GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.* THE HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT WILL PUSH SOME OF THEM OUT OF THEIR BANKS. URBAN FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CHARLOTTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 It is pouring the rain again. This is the third staight day of seeing rainfall and we have seen rain 9 out of the last 10 days. Been a very wet stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 QPF is beefed way up compared to last nights run. I still think it is under doing totals for the souther Apps. Something just does not look right about how the southern Apps miss out on the big totals. I think GFS is busting on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Flooding issues last night in Madison County & this thing hasn't really started yet in most Mnt areas. http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20130702/NEWS01/130701016/Heavy-rains-cause-flooding-slides-Madison http://www.wlos.com/shared/news/features/top-stories/stories/wlos_madison-co-flooding-mudslides-12296.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Looking at the setup alone, and ignoring the model QPF for the moment, this event looks amazing synoptically; potentially even historic. The area will be near or under the 250mb jet entrance region, combined with increasing southerly flow, orthogonally aimed into the Apps (today is 10kt, but this increases to 35kt by Thursday). Model precipitable water values are 1.50-2.00" across the area through Friday before the Bermuda High shoves the moisture plume WEST into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. The ingredients are there for heavy rain, based on upslope potential alone and existing incredibly deep moisture supply. Throw in the jet dynamics and lobes of vorticity rotating around the big upper low out west and this only adds to the forcing. By Thursday, the flow from 850mb to 250mb becomes vertically stacked, from the Gulf of Mexico straight into the western Carolina's. Even the smallest showers on radar will be torrential downpours. If what we had last night is any indication (and it isn't since our PWATs were low yesterday), this could be a very busy 48-72 hours for the mountains of western North Carolina. QPF amounts will vary considerably across the high terrain. The GFS is notorious at always underdoing upslope events (whether NW flow snow, or southerly rains). The NAM should have this modeled better, but given the blocking pattern we are in, it is too quick moving the precip out on Friday morning. Even then its QPF is too low as well. Simply by accounting for all the above ingredients, it is a wonder why the models are too "dry." Parts of the southern escarpment already received 2-3" last night, and the same occurred near the TN line yesterday too. Area average was .75-1.50". NO MODEL caught onto these amounts!! So it seems likely that model QPF should be doubled, for area-averaged amounts of 3-5" in the next 72 hours. Some spots will undoubtedly see 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Excellent analysis...as you stated, the synoptic setup is amazing and something that is rarely seen in our area. And to add the time of year this is occurring is equally as amazing. To me this is something that you would more likely see late summer/early fall. Looking at the setup alone, and ignoring the model QPF for the moment, this event looks amazing synoptically; potentially even historic. The area will be near or under the 250mb jet entrance region, combined with increasing southerly flow, orthogonally aimed into the Apps (today is 10kt, but this increases to 35kt by Thursday). Model precipitable water values are 1.50-2.00" across the area through Friday before the Bermuda High shoves the moisture plume WEST into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. The ingredients are there for heavy rain, based on upslope potential alone and existing incredibly deep moisture supply. Throw in the jet dynamics and lobes of vorticity rotating around the big upper low out west and this only adds to the forcing. By Thursday, the flow from 850mb to 250mb becomes vertically stacked, from the Gulf of Mexico straight into the western Carolina's. Even the smallest showers on radar will be torrential downpours. If what we had last night is any indication (and it isn't since our PWATs were low yesterday), this could be a very busy 48-72 hours for the mountains of western North Carolina. QPF amounts will vary considerably across the high terrain. The GFS is notorious at always underdoing upslope events (whether NW flow snow, or southerly rains). The NAM should have this modeled better, but given the blocking pattern we are in, it is too quick moving the precip out on Friday morning. Even then its QPF is too low as well. Simply by accounting for all the above ingredients, it is a wonder why the models are too "dry." Parts of the southern escarpment already received 2-3" last night, and the same occurred near the TN line yesterday too. Area average was .75-1.50". NO MODEL caught onto these amounts!! So it seems likely that model QPF should be doubled, for area-averaged amounts of 3-5" in the next 72 hours. Some spots will undoubtedly see 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 picked up another .35 last bringing my total to 4.64 for the event, southern escarpment upslope showers are already starting to bubble up this morning. hurricantracker your precip amounts sound about right i could see us easily gettin 6-10 more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Thanks. Im hoping my rain shield will kick in and shift this stuff to the east. It was supposed to rain up here in Northern VA the last 3 days and have had 1 light shower so far. Like Hurricane Tracker said, the waterfalls should be roaring with life if the trails arent to muddy. Hope to get to Mt Mitchell, but Im feeling it will likely be in the clouds and fog the whole weekend If it is not already on the agenda, I would highly recommend checking out the waterfalls at Dupont State Forest; with this rain they should be incredible. See Rainforrest's totals above and it is far from over. FYI, article in today's Asheville Citizen-Times about new bridge at Hooker Fall's parking area and new visitor center: http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20130702/OUTDOORS/307020010/Bridge-makes-DuPont-safer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 The monsoon started in north Raleigh 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Some rumbles of thunder now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 havent posted much as been swamped at work (a good thing) and saw the large area of flood watches and figured its time to check in lol. honestly do not know the exact amount (gauge has overflowed) but i do know we had over a foot of rain here last month! it has been amazingly wet - and things are about as lush as you can get. will be interesting to see how the storms shape up the next couple of days. have had a few occasions where training set up over mby and it stormed for a good 4-6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 The monsoon started in north Raleigh 5 minutes ago. It just opened up here at work (US1 & US440 split). This rain has been amazing. It has also kept our temps from rising much. I feel once the rains stop the heat and humidity will get bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I feel once the rains stop the heat and humidity will get bad. My weekend forecast already has highs in the mid 90s and sunny each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 If I recall correctly I remember having an event last year with a tropical flow. We picked up several inches of rain over a week or so. I remember the air being very clear so you could see the thunderheads in amazing clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 It appears that the band of rain over the foothills and mountains is finally starting to slide eastward. Tomorrow looks like a soaker. It's been absolutely pouring at my house for the last hour. I'm in downtown Raleigh, under the yellow reflectivity on the radar, and it's coming down good. My house has been under orange and red for the better part of an hour, and there's still plenty more to come. Pipeline from GA up through SC to NC looks locked and loaded. I will be surprised if we don't see any flash flood warnings today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 75 with drizzle. Picked up 0.11 so far today with light green returns/nothing on the radar. Wonder what's falling out the sky to the east with dark green and yellow returns. Still, this event has been BS for SE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 It's been absolutely pouring at my house for the last hour. I'm in downtown Raleigh, under the yellow reflectivity on the radar, and it's coming down good. My house has been under orange and red for the better part of an hour, and there's still plenty more to come. Pipeline from GA up through SC to NC looks locked and loaded. I will be surprised if we don't see any flash flood warnings today. It is always amazing to me how different things can be one state over, lol....or half a state up. I've had less than an inch total in the last 13 days. Not quite the drought returning but not far off I hope that high can find it's retrograde gear, and move the train you are under. The train of nothing I've got is getting very old. And I knew putting out that grass seed was the kiss of death, but I went ahead and did it anyway T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 The Charlotte area has been in a relative minimum for two days now, with heavier rains in the mountains/foothills and also out to the east toward Raleigh/coastal plain. Still waiting on the heavy rain. Appears the 12z GFS backed way off from its heavy rain prediction for the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 It is always amazing to me how different things can be one state over, lol....or half a state up. I've had less than an inch total in the last 13 days. Not quite the drought returning but not far off I hope that high can find it's retrograde gear, and move the train you are under. The train of nothing I've got is getting very old. And I knew putting out that grass seed was the kiss of death, but I went ahead and did it anyway TDon't worry. I have had heavy rain in the forecast for the past 4 days and with PWs near 2.25 and we have barely seen anything. Our total is 0.15 from the past four days with 0.11 of that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 A tornado warning was issued briefly for Person County, NC. It has been cancelled now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 It is always amazing to me how different things can be one state over, lol....or half a state up. I've had less than an inch total in the last 13 days. Not quite the drought returning but not far off I hope that high can find it's retrograde gear, and move the train you are under. The train of nothing I've got is getting very old. And I knew putting out that grass seed was the kiss of death, but I went ahead and did it anyway T Well at least I know now that I'm not the only one who has been dry lately. I don't think it's rained here in at least a week. Hopefully the rain moves west in the next few days and we can get in on some of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 It is always amazing to me how different things can be one state over, lol....or half a state up. I've had less than an inch total in the last 13 days. Not quite the drought returning but not far off I hope that high can find it's retrograde gear, and move the train you are under. The train of nothing I've got is getting very old. And I knew putting out that grass seed was the kiss of death, but I went ahead and did it anyway T I think you'll get in on some of the action very soon. Planting that grass seed was the worst thing you could have done. What were you thinking??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 1.01" fell yesterday, nearly equal parts from a rogue cluster of training thunderstorms in the afternoon and an area of moderate rain that moved through later. The temperature did not crack 80 yesterday IMBY; in fact, after the early thunderstorms moved out, it hovered near 70 for the remainder of the evening. July, Shmuly. (Not that I'm complaining.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 79 and sunny. How often is it 79 and sunny at 1pm in the hottest month of the year, especially down here? Temps probably about to shoot up though to mid to upper 80s with this significant break in clouds. It should be enough to destabilize the area and allow for some thunderstorm development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 79 and sunny. How often is it 79 and sunny at 1pm in the hottest month of the year, especially down here? Temps probably about to shoot up though to mid to upper 80s with this significant break in clouds. It should be enough to destabilize the area and allow for some thunderstorm development. 79 and sunny, but what is the dewpoint ? 75? It doesn't exactly feel like fall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Don't worry. I have had heavy rain in the forecast for the past 4 days and with PWs near 2.25 and we have barely seen anything. Our total is 0.15 from the past four days with 0.11 of that today. Thanks for the effort, Mr. Metallic, but just how am I supposed to not worry and be comforted? Misery loves company? lol T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 79 and sunny, but what is the dewpoint ? 75? It doesn't exactly feel like fall lol. You are right about feel, but if I'd been known in Feb that July 2nd I'd be at 81 close to 2pm with the sun out, I'd have been more than happy for a double shot of humid as the catch But, CR, the tv guys said it would rain and rain, when I put the seed out. I guess, except for CandyMan, you can't trust the tv guys when it comes to putting out seed And I couldn't ask CMan because he was buried in sand somewhere, lol. Now they assure me the high will retrograde and the train will enter N Ga. but the maps show above Atl, and east of Covington, so I fear I'll be in the same play again tomorrow and the 4th. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 79 and sunny, but what is the dewpoint ? 75? It doesn't exactly feel like fall lol. Yeah the dewpoint was 75 at the time. Now it's 77 with a temp of 82. Certainly doesn't feel like fall lol but cool for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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