The Big Wet of 2013

[GaWx]

Well, my friend, there is some new research for you to do    What micro climate set up allows Atl to have record rains, while areas a mere 40 miles, or so, away, receive only relative crumbs.  And it's not just this summer with the rains. but all the way back to 99, with systems consistently missing us, winter, or summer, or vanishing as they approach my county, or even my yard, lol.  I think it's beyond chance when it occurs year after year, season after season.  Is it eddies thrown up by the Rockies, after a change in elevation due to more or less snow, or landslides?  A gyre caused by the Mississipppi changing it's course a bit? How about the emergence of new volcanic islands in the Pac.?  Since 1999 Atlanta has consistently gotten more precip in all seasons than my area, and it hasn't always been this way.  Something elemental has changed in the micro clime.  Your mission, should you chose it, will be to discover, and define this change, and see if you can repeal it, lol.  Thank you, thank you very much!!  Meanwhile, I'm on high ground and will take all flooding rains, no questions asked.  Send them now!!  Send them yesterday.  T

 

Tony, my man, I don't have any answers. Could the moles be cursing your area?

[LithiaWx]

Well, Mwx, maybe your pity is having an effect.  It looks like about 1 1/2 in the gage the last hour or so.  So much thunder and lightening the power has been jumping on and off like it's electrified, lol. And I hadn't even got to whining good yet   T

Awesome! Pity for the win

[dsaur]

Tony, my man, I don't have any answers. Could the moles be cursing your area?

Well, I wouldn't think so.  With out them I'd be in the desert still.  I only have the two now, I thought the rest were with you.  If so you should be getting good rains now   These two may be sleet moles, but I have no way of telling until winter.  Anyway they seem to be totally into wing suit flying now, so I'll just have to wait and see   I think it very odd that Steve and I have about the same totals, at least as of this afternoon, while all around are flooding.  I think there are lay lines, or magnetism fields, or something at work here....maybe some topographical similitude that connects us?  Can't you work your abacus and find answers?

  Anyway, more importantly are we going to get a perpetual trough this winter, with arctic blasts and reoccurring Gom lows?  The effects of the minimum should be hitting, shouldn't they. I mean, it's been years now   Surely there is an old saw that says, cool, wet summer equals full on sleetapooluza come winter.  Tony

[dsaur]

Awesome! Pity for the win

I guess Goofy was listening to you, but I still expect big things over the week.  I won't take less than flooding rains  

  And try to feel some pity for poor MetalMan, lol.  T

[DaculaWeather]

Every time some rain approaches, it's like the parting of the seas, it just splits and goes around me. 

[jburns]

 Surely there is an old saw that says, cool, wet summer equals full on sleetapooluza come winter.  Tony

The only old SE saws for winter are bad news.

 

When summer is cool and wet, a warm dry winter is a good bet.

 

When summer is hot and dry, next winter will make you cry.

 

Heavy rain in summer, next winter is a bummer.

 

Hot or cool, dry or wet, another sucky winter is what we'll get.

 

 

 

Compare that to a New England saw for winter.

 

No matter what summer weather might come to pass, you can bet next winter will have snow up to your....waist.

[Met1985]

10th day in a row seeing rainfall. Already picked up two heavy showers accumulating to 0.56 inches.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Well, Mwx, maybe your pity is having an effect.  It looks like about 1 1/2 in the gage the last hour or so.  So much thunder and lightening the power has been jumping on and off like it's electrified, lol. And I hadn't even got to whining good yet   T

It's okay, Tony. We haven't had a lot of rain here in the Cbus area either. That looks to change big time over the coming days. The tropical moisture slamming into that front will create a nice swath of crazy rainfall totals... Now... The big question I'm still wrangling with is... Who sees it? The GFS is a bit more east than the Euro. It really depends on where the front stalls. It seems like we always miss out on the stalled frontal boundaries as they seem either just north or just south of us. I wouldn't be surprised to see this one stall out over us (wishful thinking??). Regardless, a number of people will see a good 5+ inches of rain from Mobile -> Montgomery -> Columbus -> Atlanta -> Augusta -> Columbia -> to the SC/NC state line (Give or take 75 miles N or S for that swath) before the weekend is over

[dwagner88]

I reached my annual average rainfall yesterday. Two storms came through and dumped almost 4 inches on my side of town. This morning at work in Cleveland a training band set up and dumped another 2 inches. And none of it is on record via radar because HTX is down until further notice. Every drop of rain that falls here between now and December 31 will be in excess of normal. It looks like we may be done with rain for a few days now, but the GFS is quite wet again next week.

[dsaur]

Thanks CMan, between you and Mwx I'm starting to get my hopes up.  But there is a little matter of the Cad and if that gets in here, like good ones usually do.  If the cad trumps the stalled front, then it's all drizzle, all the time, lol.  Still, drizzle will beat my usual fare.  I'd be happy to get a stalled front/tropical rainamation, and save the cad drizzle for Nov.

 

Burnsy, you are one funny, but creepy dude, lol.  I wasn't referring to a Saw where you cut off your winter to get out of summer  

 

Another bright sunny day leading up to....probably more bright and sunny afternoon, unless the spell is broken and I get a repeat of yesterday afternoon late.  T

[GaWx]

Well, I wouldn't think so.  With out them I'd be in the desert still.  I only have the two now, I thought the rest were with you.  If so you should be getting good rains now   These two may be sleet moles, but I have no way of telling until winter.  Anyway they seem to be totally into wing suit flying now, so I'll just have to wait and see   I think it very odd that Steve and I have about the same totals, at least as of this afternoon, while all around are flooding.  I think there are lay lines, or magnetism fields, or something at work here....maybe some topographical similitude that connects us?  Can't you work your abacus and find answers?

  Anyway, more importantly are we going to get a perpetual trough this winter, with arctic blasts and reoccurring Gom lows?  The effects of the minimum should be hitting, shouldn't they. I mean, it's been years now   Surely there is an old saw that says, cool, wet summer equals full on sleetapooluza come winter.  Tony

 

Tony,

 Honestly, I haven't done the research to provide any detailed info about this winter's prospects based on this summer's troughiness/rain. If I had something to say, you know I'd say it

 

 By the way, the moles have still not shown up in Savannah. However, the mayor has already put away the keys to the city so that they will be available later. So, no problem there.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Looks like things are starting to fall in line for this weekend as the Euro has joined the GFS and Canadian in bringing tropical moisture through the Yucatan and northward to the Gulf Coast and eventually the Southeast US.

 

 

Even though the 12z run still does not develop an actual tropical cyclone, it does allow a pretty good trough to cutoff briefly along the Lower Mississippi River Valley and scoops a river of moisture into the Southeast. I think as we get closer, you may see more of an actual system develop on the Euro

 

Canadian is still the most aggressive which is always a bias for that model, has a respectable tropical storm hitting AL/MS border area and moving due north.

 

12z GFS showed a disorganized system coming due north toward the Florida Panhandle, however the 18z is back to a more organized storm similar to what the GFS was hinting at yesterday.

 

 

The details in regards to who and how much are still far from certain but you can't really argue the trend this afternoon.

[DaculaWeather]

Got another 0.01" today... 

for the month, I've had 0.01" three days, 0.11" one day, and 0.28" one day. You can see the "hole" just to the east and northeast of Atlanta. 

 

[metalicwx366]

Got another 0.01" today...

for the month, I've had 0.01" three days, 0.11" one day, and 0.28" one day. You can see the "hole" just to the east and northeast of Atlanta.

Dacula and Gwinnett County Weather - NWS River Forecast Center Precipitation Display (11).png

Do you have a link to this? I want to see the big hole over SE GA also. If you feel like posting it, go ahead, if not, then just post the link. Thanks.

[Met1985]

Looks like things are starting to fall in line for this weekend as the Euro has joined the GFS and Canadian in bringing tropical moisture through the Yucatan and northward to the Gulf Coast and eventually the Southeast US.

 

 

Even though the 12z run still does not develop an actual tropical cyclone, it does allow a pretty good trough to cutoff briefly along the Lower Mississippi River Valley and scoops a river of moisture into the Southeast. I think as we get closer, you may see more of an actual system develop on the Euro

 

Canadian is still the most aggressive which is always a bias for that model, has a respectable tropical storm hitting AL/MS border area and moving due north.

 

12z GFS showed a disorganized system coming due north toward the Florida Panhandle, however the 18z is back to a more organized storm similar to what the GFS was hinting at yesterday.

 

 

The details in regards to who and how much are still far from certain but you can't really argue the trend this afternoon.

Ya seems like we may be seeing something unfold similiar to what the gfs was showing this weekend. But hey who need this weekend when it just won't quite raining anyway. Picked up 1.23 inches today from several rain and storms crossing the area. Looking forward to cooler air working in.

[DaculaWeather]

Do you have a link to this? I want to see the big hole over SE GA also. If you feel like posting it, go ahead, if not, then just post the link. Thanks.

Right here http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_rfc.php

[metalicwx366]

Right here http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_rfc.php

I'm under the 0.10 shade.

[EmersonGA]

Ever since we moved to Emerson a few years back it seems the summer storms follow a certain schedule in patterns like this.  We go the first few days of the rainy period with heavy rain all around us with nothing but sprinkles here.  After two or three days of this the floodgates open and we get pounded.  On July 4th of 2011 we got 4" of rain and last year around the same time we got 4" again.  Saturday was that time here but we only picked up 2.3" after nada for a quite awhile.  We are now over 52" for the year which is got to be close to my annual average.  THe mosquitoes are epic and I absolutely cannot keep the ants out of my house.

[dsaur]

Always had ant problems, in the cold or wet, and then I started spraying them with Off.  Deet works on ants too, it seems.  I spray the convoys, and it seems to cover the pheromone trails, and keeps the mosquitoes off the counters too, lol. 

  Another day of getting missed.  Nothing again, though I see some trying to head this way, but not near enough coverage to feel optimistic, based on past experience.  T

[1234snow]

Would somebody turn the Big Wet off? Jeez! The skies are not going to heal!!!!!!!!!! I've had around 5 inches since Friday and there was a lot of flooding around the county today. It just comes in rounds of relentless rain.

[MikeGold]

Photo taken this last weekend at Gorges State Park that is located near the NC/SC border at a very favored SE wind upslope location. The Park contains an actual rain forest.

[Met1985]

Photo taken this last weekend at Gorges State Park that is located near the NC/SC border at a very favored SE wind upslope location. The Park contains an actual rain forest.

Crazy Mike. And more on the way.

[Rainforrest]

Photo taken this last weekend at Gorges State Park that is located near the NC/SC border at a very favored SE wind upslope location. The Park contains an actual rain forest.

this just goes to show you how much rain can differ in just a few miles. I have received 96 inches of rain this year and i live only a few miles from where that picture was taken.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Still a lot of uncertainty in regards to this weekend's weather across the Southeast...

 

 

What we do know is that a strong CAD even should begin to take place tomorrow when southwest winds begin to override some cooler surface air that has bled down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. By Friday, there easily could be a cold rainy day, more resembling October rather than middle August.

 

 

The huge wild card in the weekend weather is any possible tropical interaction with INVEST 92L...earlier today it had looked like the complex was organizing and destined to be a tropical depression. However the low and mid level vort's separated from each other creating a sheared mass that has dwindled during the evening hours. We shall see what occurs overnight.

 

Another trend in today's model guidance was for a disorganized mess to make its way into the Gulf splitting off into several different vort max instead of a consolidated system. That to me is a big sign that 92L has yet to develop a central core that can be accurately initialized into the model data.

 

 

In my opinion, the next 24 hours it critical to the ultimate fate of INVEST 92L. If we still have a disorganized mess crossing the Yucatan then I think will be time to write off this system being a big rain maker for anybody.

 

If the low and mid levels and establish themselves the potential is still there for this to get classified...and with the 500mb flow, it should be a threat for the northern GOM coastline.

[MikeGold]

this just goes to show you how much rain can differ in just a few miles. I have received 96 inches of rain this year and i live only a few miles from where that picture was taken.

!!!! How much did you receive in June and July? I think that mtn that is above Lake Toxoway is probably the wettest location in N.C.

 

My location in the Plott Balsams was the wettest location in the Eastern U.S. this year till June mostly due to the 2 feet of rain that fell in January. With SW wind upslope events it reigns supreme. It has now lagged way behind due to the all the SE/S wind Upslope events that have occured since then.

[franklin NCwx]

!!!! How much did you receive in June and July? I think that mtn that is above Lake Toxoway is probably the wettest location in N.C.

My location in the Plott Balsams was the wettest location in the Eastern U.S. this year till June mostly due to the 2 feet of rain that fell in January. With SW wind upslope events it reigns supreme. It has now lagged way behind due to the all the SE/S wind Upslope events that have occured since then.

his location is the wettest spot. the counties of Transylvania, Jackson, and Macon receive the most annual rainfall.

[MikeGold]

his location is the wettest spot. the counties of Transylvania, Jackson, and Macon receive the most annual rainfall.

My location is in Jackson county. There remains some debate on just where the wettest location is. For instance-his location is not the wettest spot as his elevation is only 3000 feet..all the surrounding mtns near there undoubtedly receive more.(It probably is the wettest spot with an actual observer however.) Also, rainfall in Transylvania county is somewhat overrated compared to other locations in Western North Carolina since it has outstanding radar coverage out of Greer, SC and people actually live in the wet areas. Much of other mtn areas in Western NC suffer from beam blockage and are under reported as nobody lives there since it is public land. (One example with an observer is Mt. LeConte Lodge near the TN/NC area with rainfall amounts comparable to Lake Toxoway.) The NWS under forecasts/report SW wind upslope events which occur very frequently in the colder months of the year. Areas above 6000 feet often receive double the rainfall of valley locations on an annual basis due to low clouds that hug the mountains and passing seeder/feeder processes that trigger precip. Take a look at records for Cocorahs NC-HW-11 to get an idea on what I'm talking about. This location isn't on a mtn top -is rain shadowed by my location and doesn't report every day but still comes in with big annuals numbers.   With the recent and ongoing placement of data logging rain gauges on mtn tops by NASA/Universities-I think we will have some definitive answers in the near future. Also the GPM SAT system will accurately depict rainfall events in mountainous areas after its launch this coming February. I suspect some of the very wettest areas average 120" a year

[mackerel_sky]

So most models have the tropical disturbance heading west torwards Texas now!? Does this mean we see your run of the mill 1-2 inch rainfall across the SE , as opposed to the major 3-6 we were looking at if the tropical wave was to have moved into the SE? Or will the overrunning steady rain still produce reall high totals?

[Marion_NC_WX]

So most models have the tropical disturbance heading west torwards Texas now!? Does this mean we see your run of the mill 1-2 inch rainfall across the SE , as opposed to the major 3-6 we were looking at if the tropical wave was to have moved into the SE? Or will the overrunning steady rain still produce reall high totals?

 

 

The lack of a tropical system means much lower QPF...

[LithiaWx]

Flood watches hoisted for the southern half of GA. A crushing is on the table for them. Some counties are already experiencing flash flooding from the rains today with much more to come. Robert seems to agree with the NWS on this one as well.