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The Big Wet of 2013

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

What a whiny negative nancy.

:)  Well, I've got to defend him.  Unlike you spoiled Atlanta folks we don't get rain down here.  I supposed I could fault him for having more than me and complaining about it, but I only have .4 and I'm pissed as hell about it.  And I'll start whining too, here pretty soon, if you guys don't let up on the boot to the neck deal you've got going with your poor relations down here, lol.  And you think you've got whining now, you wait until I start in.  I'll make your life a living hell,  so give us some of your damn rain :)   T

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

That 12 z GFS depiction would be a worst case scenario for Georgia.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

  

:)  Well, I've got to defend him.  Unlike you spoiled Atlanta folks we don't get rain down here.  I supposed I could fault him for having more than me and complaining about it, but I only have .4 and I'm pissed as hell about it.  And I'll start whining too, here pretty soon, if you guys don't let up on the boot to the neck deal you've got going with your poor relations down here, lol.  And you think you've got whining now, you wait until I start in.  I'll make your life a living hell,  so give us some of your damn rain :)   T

Tony, the 12z would solve your problems

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

  

Tony, the 12z would solve your problems

  Yeah, well, after watching many masses of rain in Ala dissipate as they approach us I'm not holding my breath.  I'm pretty sure the 12z only applies to everyone else :)  I'm serious...every sure thing down the pike has struck out on us lately.  So while a big MCC, and a cad plus a trop storm all look keen on a map, it doesn't do anything in my tenths collector until it falls :)  Hope it's right!!  T

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

:) Well, I've got to defend him. Unlike you spoiled Atlanta folks we don't get rain down here. I supposed I could fault him for having more than me and complaining about it, but I only have .4 and I'm pissed as hell about it. And I'll start whining too, here pretty soon, if you guys don't let up on the boot to the neck deal you've got going with your poor relations down here, lol. And you think you've got whining now, you wait until I start in. I'll make your life a living hell, so give us some of your damn rain :) T

They are hogging all the rain up there. I see there are more flash flood warnings up there now.
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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Ya I think the SE could be in real trouble with this one. Not trying to hype but I am having flash backs of the first of July and all that rain. With know possibly a stalled out front, a cutoff low, and know maybe some kind of tropical wave being sucked into the flow this spells disaster for a large part of the SE. Wow going to be a very busy week weather wise.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Again only one model run but the 18z is much worst than the 12z. This would be a worst case scenario. I mean a large portion of the SE looks to get hit hard by many inches on this run also. Talking about Alabama, Georgia, NC, and SC look to get in on 3-6 plus inches. I mean shoot looking at GA there is a spot of what looks like 8 some inches. My fear again as the models get a handle on things these totals will only go up.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

Again only one model run but the 18z is much worst than the 12z. This would be a worst case scenario. I mean a large portion of the SE looks to get hit hard by many inches on this run also. Talking about Alabama, Georgia, NC, and SC look to get in on 3-6 plus inches. I mean shoot looking at GA there is a spot of what looks like 8 some inches. My fear again as the models get a handle on things these totals will only go up.

 

 

Yep...18z run would be a catastrophe for the Southern Apps Region. What ever forms in the Gulf goes straight up the spine of the mountains. Here are 96 hour totals of 6-8 inches ending just after Day 7...also remember, this does not include any convective activity from now to hour 78 (late Wednesday)...

 

GFS_3_2013081118_F174_PCPIN_96_HR.png

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

lol @ the GFS.

 

It's supposed to have rained significantly here over the past several days, but we've gotten at best scattered storms. Some have been good for the folks who got them, but even then the rain totals are fairly small outside of some tiny lollipops. I think it's too late in the summer for a big stormy/rainy pattern to set up, and I'm glad that RAH has been hesitant to forecast more than about 60% chances of rain.

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted

:) Well, I've got to defend him. Unlike you spoiled Atlanta folks we don't get rain down here. I supposed I could fault him for having more than me and complaining about it, but I only have .4 and I'm pissed as hell about it. And I'll start whining too, here pretty soon, if you guys don't let up on the boot to the neck deal you've got going with your poor relations down here, lol. And you think you've got whining now, you wait until I start in. I'll make your life a living hell, so give us some of your damn rain :) T

At least I'm not alone in it being dry this month. I was beginning to think I was the only one who has had very little rain this month. At this rate we may be lucky to finish the month with an inch. Having said that... my dad lives 10 miles away and has close to 4 inches for the month. I'm ready for this hit or miss stuff to go away. It would be nice to have a widespread rainfall. At least summer only has 20 days left so we should start to get rid of the hit or miss stuff soon.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

18z GFS drops 8 inches over the next 7 days for metro Atlanta. Epic flooding would commence if this were to verify.

 

 That would bring KATL JJA rainfall to near 30" and would absolutely obliterate the current KATL JJA record going back to 1879 of 25.82" set in 2005!! KATL has had way more than enough. Move it south to Tony's stomping grounds or west to snowstorm's home, please.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

The afternoon version of the Doc again shows deep trough to eventual cutoff over the Mississippi River Valley...deep Gulf flow invades the Southeast. No tropical feature Per se but still a very unsettled pattern.

 

Don't know what is showing up on the Euro QPF, but its pattern looks awfully wet across the SE.  Pre-frontal showers and storms followed by moist gulf inflow as the trough sets up to our west.  Models overall have been quite consistent with the incoming setup.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

Don't know what is showing up on the Euro QPF, but its pattern looks awfully wet across the SE.  Pre-frontal showers and storms followed by moist gulf inflow as the trough sets up to our west.  Models overall have been quite consistent with the incoming setup.

It's pretty dry for NC, NW SC and northern GA and points north and west, outside of some rounds over the next day or so. Keeps most precip in southern GA and the coastal plains of NC and SC. It also showed far more precip for NC this evening than we actually had or will have overnight.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

In regards to the potential for tropical influence this upcoming weekend. The following snippet from norleans NWS spells out what to watch for and see how things evolve throughout the week. Gonna be a soaker Fri-Sun regardless.

 

From New Orleans NWS....

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THIS WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MADE THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HRS WITH
RESPECT TO THE TROPICS WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH NOTHING REALLY
DEVELOPING. THE GFS MOVES THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
ERN/CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST UNTIL IT REACHES THE FAR WRN
CARIBBEAN AND THEN STARTS TO TURN IT INTO THE TROUGH IN THE GULF. BY
LATE SAT A SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL/N-CNTRL GULF DEVELOPS AND THEN
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NE AND INTO THE AL/FL COAST AS A TROPICAL
SYSTEM OR POSSIBLY A HYBRID. THE GFS IS PLAUSIBLE BUT NOT BUYING WHY
SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM WOULD START TO TURN RIGHT AND RE-CURVE IN THE
GULF. TYPICALLY WEAKER SYSTEMS WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED MID LVL
STRUCTURE DONT TEND TO FOLLOW THE STEERING CURRENTS AS MUCH AND WILL
JUST KEEP MOVING WEST...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECMWF DOES. IN FACT THE
ECMWF NEVER EVEN GETS THE WAVE NORTH OF 20N LAT. IF THIS WAVE DOES
NOT DEVELOP BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN THEN THE ECMWF MAKES
FAR MORE SINCE AND THUS WHY WE ARE USING THE ECMWF WINDS RIGHT NOW
FOR FRI-SUN. IF THE WAVE CAN GET SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED IN THE CARIBBEAN
THEN WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MAY BE RIGHT. /CAB/

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

 That would bring KATL JJA rainfall to near 30" and would absolutely obliterate the current KATL JJA record going back to 1879 of 25.82" set in 2005!! KATL has had way more than enough. Move it south to Tony's stomping grounds or west to snowstorm's home, please.

Well, my friend, there is some new research for you to do :)   What micro climate set up allows Atl to have record rains, while areas a mere 40 miles, or so, away, receive only relative crumbs.  And it's not just this summer with the rains. but all the way back to 99, with systems consistently missing us, winter, or summer, or vanishing as they approach my county, or even my yard, lol.  I think it's beyond chance when it occurs year after year, season after season.  Is it eddies thrown up by the Rockies, after a change in elevation due to more or less snow, or landslides?  A gyre caused by the Mississipppi changing it's course a bit? How about the emergence of new volcanic islands in the Pac.?  Since 1999 Atlanta has consistently gotten more precip in all seasons than my area, and it hasn't always been this way.  Something elemental has changed in the micro clime.  Your mission, should you chose it, will be to discover, and define this change, and see if you can repeal it, lol.  Thank you, thank you very much!!  Meanwhile, I'm on high ground and will take all flooding rains, no questions asked.  Send them now!!  Send them yesterday.  T

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

0.38" for the month. Each day it's just barely missed me.The other side of Gwinnett (west of I-85) got several inches today.

 

dang that sucks!  hopefully as i keep reading to catch up i will see where you got clobbered lol.  its rained/stormed pretty much every day lately. another today that came roaring in with winds and heavy rain - roads are getting covered quickly since the ground is so saturated.  over 9" since last week (havent gotten a total yet for today. will go out and check later when it stops lol)

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Cantore is really hyping this tropical system/ disturbance! The last 10 minutes of the hour and first 5 min or so on the new hour. He showed a model that takes it through the far west tip of FL peninsula , up over Atlanta , then over GSP into NC! Says will be prolific rainmaker despite its strength . Just another opinion I guess? Local mets really downplaying rain at end of week/ weekend

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Cantore is really hyping this tropical system/ disturbance! The last 10 minutes of the hour and first 5 min or so on the new hour. He showed a model that takes it through the far west tip of FL peninsula , up over Atlanta , then over GSP into NC! Says will be prolific rainmaker despite its strength . Just another opinion I guess? Local mets really downplaying rain at end of week/ weekend

That model was the GFS. Latest run is weaker and barely develops anything.

HPC has me in the 4-5 inch range for later this week. In July I was in the 8 inch range, but only received 10% of that during that period. I'm hoping this event won't pull a July down here.

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