dsaur Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Folks, KATL has had a whopping 20.79" of rainfall already this met. summer as of 8/8/13 (2 PM) with none of it from tropical cyclones! This already places the met. summer of 2013 in 4th place for KATL going back to when records started in 1879! The heaviest JJA rainfall on record is the 25.82" of 2005. However, during that summer, there were four tropical cyclones that contributed close to 15" vs. none so far this summer. In 2nd is the 24.44" of 1887. However, storm # 4 in July of 1887 contributed 7.9". In 3rd is the 24.31" of 1994. However, Alberto contributed 7.92". So, as of 8/8, KATL has already seen the most JJA rainfall on record (since 1879) from sources other than tropical cyclones!! Also, since KATL is only 5.03" away from the 2005 alltime JJA record, there might be a shot at that if a wet pattern dominates. Yep, these are very special times in which we're living! Lol, thanks for making me think there isn't anything below I 20 after all, and I live here I've gotten 10ths lately while Atl. counts their rain in buckets of inches. .4 for the month so far. And .3 of those came today. You need to send the Moles back home, please. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 We have the smallest of cells right over us but we are getting hammered right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 1.16 for the month. 49.82 for the year. We have exceeded our yearly average. I'm pretty sure this is one of the wettest summers on record even with all the misses in July. June made up for that. Its actually been wet year round and not just this summer. This spring was very wet as well. March 23-24 we saw 4+ inches of rain and April 14 we saw 3-4 inches and then the wake low came through with the winds gusts up to 55mph. Next week looks wet FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 August is typically the beginning of the dry season here and this year is no different. Despite dewpoints being in the 70s each day it's been a dry month. 0.48" as of 8-10. Definitely MUCH drier than July was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will. Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up. Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture. Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will. Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up. Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture. Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so. I'm sure the lack of winter snow will be offset by the nice mild temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will. Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up. Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture. Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so. Who is "they" and how do they know this far in advance that all the moisture will dry up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will. Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up. Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture. Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so. Wait...what??? Who is "they" and how do they know this far in advance that all the moisture will dry up? Exactly! You beat me to it. Fritschy is already getting in early season form. Is it possible to cliff dive on winter's chances before fall even arrives?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Who is "they" and how do they know this far in advance that all the moisture will dry up? Good question. Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will. Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up. Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture. Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so. If this pattern continues like we've had all summer holds going into winter the moisture will be there..... that is if the jetstream doesn't become overly suppressed to the south. If that happens then yeah cold and dry will be the rule while FL,GA,AL,SC,MS,LA will be most likely the sweetspot for winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 August is typically the beginning of the dry season here and this year is no different. Despite dewpoints being in the 70s each day it's been a dry month. 0.48" as of 8-10. Definitely MUCH drier than July was. Two major flooding event in north Georgia over the last 10 days.. Not much different than July so far. Your backyard does not equal everywhere else in your vicinity. Metro atlanta home of over four million people have been subjected to two flood warnings as well this month people in far north Georgia have been losing their homes from floods this month too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will. Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up. Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture. Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so. Lol, Most can't even get a 5 day forecast right and they say we are going to dry up by winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Lol, Most can't even get a 5 day forecast right and they say we are going to dry up by winter? Apples and oranges. That's the same argument used by climate change deniers. There's a big difference between forecasting a general pattern and forecasting the exact weather for a specific day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 I'm game! I say the first sticking precip of consequence for the northern central, southern northern Ga. mystery area will fall on Dec 29th of this very year. Meanwhile, no rain again today. The mini drought continues while those spoiled Atlanta folks, hoard all the rain Some of the rest of us like floods too you know! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Apples and oranges. That's the same argument used by climate change deniers. There's a big difference between forecasting a general pattern and forecasting the exact weather for a specific day.Ok, I know that. Those are still terrible as well. The cold pattern that people said was coming last winter in January never came. 5.years ago, they said we would have an ice free Arctic by 2013 and that hasn't come to fruition yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Who is "they" and how do they know this far in advance that all the moisture will dry up? Well they is the NWS, CPC. I think they are always the folks that put out the long range. Don't get me wrong for I hope they the NWS/CPC are wrong. Hey after the last two winters it wouldn't surprise if the moisture dries up about the time the cold temps arrive. Yes THEY were on the news last night and that is where I heard it and I was as surprised as you guys are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Well they is the NWS, CPC. I think they are always the folks that put out the long range. Don't get me wrong for I hope they the NWS/CPC are wrong. Hey after the last two winters it wouldn't surprise if the moisture dries up about the time the cold temps arrive. Yes THEY were on the news last night and that is where I heard it and I was as surprised as you guys are. Ya I also saw this on there website. Take it with a grain of salt. All I heard about this summer was how much above we were going to be and look at how that turned out. Still way to early to be throwing out winter outlooks just in my opinion. Back to the big wet today. Today marks day 7 we have seen rainfall in a row. Picked up 1.22 inches of rain today. Rained three times today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Last week , GSP was already 2 inches above their yearly average rainfall! That is amazing , because we still have four months to go! Even if the big wet has slowed a little imby, we have probably picked up 2 or 3 more inches since then! This is the wettest summer I can ever remember, and the fact we have had all these amazing totals without anything tropical entities , is even more remarkable!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Lol http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 0.57" for the month and we are about 1/3 though the month. Unless things start picking up we are on pace for less than 2" for the entire month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 0.57" for the month and we are about 1/3 though the month. Unless things start picking up we are on pace for less than 2" for the entire month. What a whiny negative nancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 The latest GFS run really paints a very wet picture this next week. It looks like a large portion the the SE is really going to pick up on come major rainfall and we could be back in line with major flooding concerns as this latest run for the next week paint a lot of 1 to 3 inch totals from know through the 16th of this month with locally heavier totals. Also for the mountains this does not look good at all. Only one run but the latest GFS run pains upwards of maybe 3-6 inches of rain for the next 6 days which could be devastaing to a lot of crops and homes and could cause more landslides. This will need to be watched closely because I think these totals around a lot of the SE will go up as we work closer to the trough setting up shop over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 The latest GFS run really paints a very wet picture this next week. It looks like a large portion the the SE is really going to pick up on come major rainfall and we could be back in line with major flooding concerns as this latest run for the next week paint a lot of 1 to 3 inch totals from know through the 16th of this month with locally heavier totals. Also for the mountains this does not look good at all. Only one run but the latest GFS run pains upwards of maybe 3-6 inches of rain for the next 6 days which could be devastaing to a lot of crops and homes and could cause more landslides. This will need to be watched closely because I think these totals around a lot of the SE will go up as we work closer to the trough setting up shop over the East. Totally agree...folks, a very ominous signal in the 0z model suite for the Southern Appalachian Region. Deep eastern trough (might even cut off at some point), upper jet dynamics and a warm weather CAD signal all coming together could provide a widespread heavy rain event middle to late next week. 0z Euro in total agreement with the GFS, carves out a massive trough Days 5,6,7 that results in a ton of moisture by advected from the Gulf northward. Day 7 has some similarities to the big cutoff from last month, we'll have to see if that keeps showing up in future runs... Even at several days out, the folks at GSP has highlighted the potential in this morning's AFD which to me is a sign that they're coming on board to possibly something significant going down later next week... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE CONTINUES TO FEATURE A VERY INTERESTING COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN DURING THE LATE WEEK. IN FACT...THE 0Z GFS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LLVL SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...COMBINED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROF AND STRONG H3 JET DIVERGENCE. THIS PATTERN COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND PW BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT. IN FACT...THE GFS QPF RANGES FROM OVER 5.5 INCHES ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 2 INCHES EAST WED THROUGH THURS. THE 12Z ECMWF QPF FAVORS THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC...LEAVING THE MTNS WILL QPF LESS THAN AN INCH WED AND THURS. CIPS ANALOG FOR HEAVY RAIN SUPPORTS THE ECMWF QPF. I WILL USE A CONTINUOUS MENTION OF CHC POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON WED. THE FORECAST WILL ALSO INDICATE LIGHT ENE WINDS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONSERVATIVELY RANGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Lol, Most can't even get a 5 day forecast right and they say we are going to dry up by winter?what,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Lol http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png TY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 TY?You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 The latest GFS run really paints a very wet picture this next week. It looks like a large portion the the SE is really going to pick up on come major rainfall and we could be back in line with major flooding concerns as this latest run for the next week paint a lot of 1 to 3 inch totals from know through the 16th of this month with locally heavier totals. Also for the mountains this does not look good at all. Only one run but the latest GFS run pains upwards of maybe 3-6 inches of rain for the next 6 days which could be devastaing to a lot of crops and homes and could cause more landslides. This will need to be watched closely because I think these totals around a lot of the SE will go up as we work closer to the trough setting up shop over the East.Imagine if this happened.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013081100/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl.html Yes I know it's the CMC, but just one possibility. 06z NAVGEM also shows the same but isn't reliable either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Imagine if this happened. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013081100/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl.html Yes I know it's the CMC, but just one possibility. 06z NAVGEM also shows the same but isn't reliable either. And in a very interesting turn of events...the 12z GFS joins the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 At some point soon, honking might need to be done to prepare for widespread prolonged flooding by late this week into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 At some point soon, honking might need to be done to prepare for widespread prolonged flooding by late this week into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 That 12 z GFS depiction would be a worst case scenario for Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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