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The Big Wet of 2013


Wow

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the RAP did a solid job last night in depicting the precip that hit the North Carolina foothills and down into Upstate South Carolina where some areas in South Carolina got 3-4 inches overnight through this morning.

 

 

Just looked at the 21z run and its doing a good job again with what's currently firing up in the North Carolina mountains...the 21z run shows convection through midnight (tonight) for WNC with a re-flare towards morning...

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the RAP did a solid job last night in depicting the precip that hit the North Carolina foothills and down into Upstate South Carolina where some areas in South Carolina got 3-4 inches overnight through this morning.

 

 

Just looked at the 21z run and its doing a good job again with what's currently firing up in the North Carolina mountains...the 21z run shows convection through midnight (tonight) for WNC with a re-flare towards morning...

yep been raining here for about the last hour picked up .40 so far.

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As of 6AM, radar estimates of 9" of rain have fallen this morning in Dawson county in NE Georgia. The Etowah River is already over flood stage.

 
IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING IS HEAVY RAIN IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA. AT AFD TIME (4am) ....3 -HR RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 6 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST DAWSON COUNTY ALONG THE ETOWAH RIVER. SEVERAL COUNTIES UP THERE HAVE SEEN 2-4 INCHES BUT DAWSON IS THE WORST. 00Z KFFC SOUNDING HAD PW ALMOST AT 2 INCHES...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY A CONCERN AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. 00Z HIRES MODELS ARE ACTUALLY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION IN NE GEORGIA VERY WELL...SO IF THE TRENDS FROM THESE MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...THE AREA IN NE GA WILL SAG SOUTHWEST WHILE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN SITU OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA/NORTHWEST GEORGIA AFTER SUNRISE AND MOVES SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER MISSOURI MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AFTER 18Z. THIS RESULTS IN POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE GONE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN SOME AREAS IN N GA FOR TODAY. EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL DRY DAYS...WOULD BE TEMPTED TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AS IT IS...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY /AS IS ALREADY OCCURRING/. OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO NW GA WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST /WET MICROBURSTS/. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT ISOLATED SEVERE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
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This morning's model data still in line with the thoughts I had a couple days ago...

 

Strong Bermuda High return flow + solid convergence area roughly across I-40 Cooridor = several rounds of heavy thunderstorms this weekend from Alabama to Southern Virginia, weekly totals should really begin to pile up in that region by late Saturday and Sunday.

 

 

GFS_3_2013080706_F96_RH_500_MB.png

 

 

 

 

GFS_3_2013080706_F96_RH_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND

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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1137 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS EXPANDED THE

• FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

• THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

• MULTIPLE WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN
THIS MORNING HAS DUMPED ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

• WITH SATURATED SOILS ALREADY IN PLACE...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
ADDITIONALLY...BECAUSE OF THE SATURATED SOILS...EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES ACROSS THE AREA.

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Maybe I'll get a little this time, only had 0.28" from the first batch. I was hoping it would make it further south, but no such luck.

I was all giddy with excitement this afternoon when the NWS hit me with a flash flood warning.  It was only a few miles west, and coming this way.  Heavy, heavy rain..slow moving.  And I got .1 from it.  The super dissipating derainalizers are going full steam down here, along the Ala. line.  The mini drought continues.  I've got rain on radar just a county away, again now, but I'm not holding my breath.  T

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Well, I hope so. Right now _6:05am) there ain't nothin' on the radar. The stuff in TN is moving directly east, you might have some drizzle and light rain near you Tyler, but certainly not what they got yesterday.

 

Yeah, nada. Popup stuff starting to show up now. Guess we'll see what happens this afternoon. 

 

I know we don't need the rain all that much, but I'm only 6" off my yearly average and at this juncture I'd like to get there ASAP just for the sake of doing it lol. 

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it is definitely  back!  4.32' yesterday, cloudy but no rain most of today. however, the deluge started about an hour or two ago just after the flood warnings went out.  since that time  another 1.85 and still pouring 6+ last two days alone :) lol

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it is definitely  back!  4.32' yesterday, cloudy but no rain most of today. however, the deluge started about an hour or two ago just after the flood warnings went out.  since that time  another 1.85 and still pouring 6+ last two days alone :) lol

0.38" for the month. Each day it's just barely missed me.The other side of Gwinnett (west of I-85) got several inches today.

 

post-594-0-27416800-1375992006_thumb.png

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it is definitely  back!  4.32' yesterday, cloudy but no rain most of today. however, the deluge started about an hour or two ago just after the flood warnings went out.  since that time  another 1.85 and still pouring 6+ last two days alone :) lol

0.38" for the month. Each day it's just barely missed me.The other side of Gwinnett (west of I-85) got several inches today.

 

post-594-0-27416800-1375992006_thumb.png

Watching the dual lines in bama and Tennessee now. Moving east/southeast. Hopefully this gets us something. Had a ten minute deluge earlier but that's it for today.

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Folks,

 KATL has had a whopping 20.79" of rainfall already this met. summer as of 8/8/13 (2 PM) with none of it from tropical cyclones! This already places the met. summer of 2013 in 4th place for KATL going back to when records started in 1879! The heaviest JJA rainfall on record is the 25.82" of 2005. However, during that summer, there were four tropical cyclones that contributed close to 15" vs. none so far this summer. In 2nd is the 24.44" of 1887. However, storm # 4 in July of 1887 contributed 7.9". In 3rd is the 24.31" of 1994. However, Alberto contributed 7.92". So, as of 8/8, KATL has already seen the most JJA rainfall on record (since 1879) from sources other than tropical cyclones!!

 

 Also, since KATL is only 5.03" away from the 2005 alltime JJA record, there might be a shot at that if a wet pattern dominates.

 

 Yep, these are very special times in which we're living!

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If this pic doesn't post sorry> Anyway thought you GA peeps might be interested if you haven't seen.

Photo below is of a bridge washed out (with drainage culvert) near Ellijay, Ga. (Credit: Jimmy Glynn via NWS-Peachtree City, Ga.)

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Photos of US National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia | Facebook

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