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The Big Wet of 2013


Wow

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Some short video from MBY this morning.  The backyard was inches deep in water. Change to HD to get best quality.  (It wasn't filmed in HD, but that will give the best possible picture equivalent to what it was shot at.)

 

Well, Jonathan, it is patently obvious to me you have moles in your vicinity :)  All I can say is enjoy the abnormal weather, it doesn't come along all that often.  I still remember Alberto with awe, and especially as it wasn't so long after that I endured a decade of drought :)  No wishing that on you, but keep in mind how quickly things can change.  I'm glad you are out in it, taking full advantage.  That's the way to experience anomalous weather, not holed up inside, lol.  When you've had a surfeit, please send the crumbs down here...I can never get enough of the rain stuff.  Looking at yours I am thinking ...What if that were sleet!! lol.  Holy Moley.  Tony

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Well, Jonathan, it is patently obvious to me you have moles in your vicinity :)  All I can say is enjoy the abnormal weather, it doesn't come along all that often.  I still remember Alberto with awe, and especially as it wasn't so long after that I endured a decade of drought :)  No wishing that on you, but keep in mind how quickly things can change.  I'm glad you are out in it, taking full advantage.  That's the way to experience anomalous weather, not holed up inside, lol.  When you've had a surfeit, please send the crumbs down here...I can never get enough of the rain stuff.  Looking at yours I am thinking ...What if that were sleet!! lol.  Holy Moley.  Tony

 

Thanks, Tony!  I'm definitely experiencing the abnormal weather around here.  I did think I saw the trace of a mole tunnel in one section of my yard, but I'm not too sure.  I think I truly am mole free, currently.  I wish that I could take this July 2013 amount of precipitation and get that same amount in January 2014 falling as snow at a 10:1 to ratio!  150+ inches of snow!  That would be nice...

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Yesterday's massive flood in the Hickory area is causing some huge problems down stream along the South Fork of the Catawba...

NCC071-300248-/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-130730T1315Z//LOWN7.3.ER.130728T0836Z.130729T0600Z.130730T0115Z.NO/1048 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR  THE SOUTH FORK CATAWBA RIVER IN NC AT LOWELL.* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.* AT 10:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.9 FEET.* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.2 FEET IN  THE PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY.  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE  LATE MONDAY EVENING.* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING IN THE PHARR YARNS MILL  AREA AND IN THE CRAMERTON AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN  RAILROAD TRACKS WILL BE OBSERVED.
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Thanks, Tony!  I'm definitely experiencing the abnormal weather around here.  I did think I saw the trace of a mole tunnel in one section of my yard, but I'm not too sure.  I think I truly am mole free, currently.  I wish that I could take this July 2013 amount of precipitation and get that same amount in January 2014 falling as snow at a 10:1 to ratio!  150+ inches of snow!  That would be nice...

The good news is you are on high enough ground for it to run out, instead of running in :)  I am constantly amazed that people spend a fortune on a house without ever taking note of it's elevation relative to creeks, or heavy rain run off.  A hundred year rain could begin tomorrow, lol. 

 Glad you are safe.  From the sound of things up there, it sure reminds me of Alberto...people disappearing into creeks, etc.  I  don't get why folks will drive into flooded roads.  I think it's because they don't go out and experience crazy weather, and see what nature can do.....learn a bit, so they can understand the need for caution.  Too molycoddled and air conditioned to make life and death decisions from a basis in experience, when confronted.  It's sad.  But it happens with every anomalous occurrence.  T

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This has been a great thread...it all started with the massive cutoff low at the start of the month and the rest of this month has been history for a good number of people. It's been so great that we are still on the front page of this site.

 

 

Don't know about ya'll but I would like to see this thread retired with the month coming to an end. Do we have a sub-forum of archived threads from across the country? The weather has been historic for a significant area and it deserves its own distinction.

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This has been a great thread...it all started with the massive cutoff low at the start of the month and the rest of this month has been history for a good number of people. It's been so great that we are still on the front page of this site.

 

 

Don't know about ya'll but I would like to see this thread retired with the month coming to an end. Do we have a sub-forum of archived threads from across the country? The weather has been historic for a significant area and it deserves its own distinction.

 

I agree a hall of fame thread forum would be a great way to archive our best weather threads. It might be to much with all the threads remaining on the board. If those old threads ever have to leave for some reason a few select ones should remain. (Christmas storm 10 with all the highs, lows, & then highs again would be a must) On to the weather part of this post. I know I have mentioned it before but in the 124 months I have lived in this house this July has shattered my wettest month ever. which by the way Dec. 2012 shattered. The best year I have had in Precip. is almost 41". I stand now on pace for 62.4". The undergrowth in the woods around here is so dense it would have to be hacked thru. Just some amazing sights so far this year.

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Robert says, "Here it comes again".

 

 

Hope you've enjoyed the much quieter weather in the South lately..its about to take a turn for the worse. We're going back to the July setup. The winds will switch to southerly Gulf flow, strong Bermuda Ridge and a nearly constant influx of upper systems that are diving unusually far south, which all maximize the rainfall production squarely in the Southeast. Full update for my premium subscribers at www.wxsouth.com.
Too much rain in general is coming all across the Southeast next week, with large masses of rainfall at first from MCC events, then from training events on southerly flow. First major concerns are northern Arkansas, western Kentucky, Tennessee and Gulf Coasts between Pensacola to Mobile...then quickly transitioning to the Apps and Piedmont of VA, NC, SC and GA. Some counties will have 2 months worth of rain by Friday. Very bad news for the saturated Southeast.

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Robert says, "Here it comes again".

Hope you've enjoyed the much quieter weather in the South lately..its about to take a turn for the worse. We're going back to the July setup. The winds will switch to southerly Gulf flow, strong Bermuda Ridge and a nearly constant influx of upper systems that are diving unusually far south, which all maximize the rainfall production squarely in the Southeast. Full update for my premium subscribers at www.wxsouth.com.

Too much rain in general is coming all across the Southeast next week, with large masses of rainfall at first from MCC events, then from training events on southerly flow. First major concerns are northern Arkansas, western Kentucky, Tennessee and Gulf Coasts between Pensacola to Mobile...then quickly transitioning to the Apps and Piedmont of VA, NC, SC and GA. Some counties will have 2 months worth of rain by Friday. Very bad news for the saturated Southeast.

What model is showing this?
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Yeah, Robert had a big update on his site last night...

 

 

Without revealing too much of what he posted to his subscribers, I would tend to agree with the general philosophy behind the forecast. Once again, the Bermuda High is going to set up strong just off the Southeast Coast allowing winds from 850mb to the surface to take on a south trajectory. There's no cutoff being shown on the model data but there continues to be a cyclonic turn in the wind fields across the Southeast and with no cap, and high PWAT's (GFS showing in excess of 2 inches) and the smallest of vorts coming from both the ridge off shore along with some MCS activity in the mid latitude flow, that's all you need for daily convective activity.

 

 I think the strong Bermuda High has been a major player in what has happened this summer yet it's been under-played because of everyone's focus on the blocking at the higher latitudes. The massive cutoff last month was greatly aided by the Western Atlantic ridge. The Eastern Carolinas over-achieved in that setup because of that deep flow coming directly from the Atlantic. And for the So Apps, the worst of the rains didn't occur until after the retrograding process started.

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Yes, I know back when you were growing up that they didn't have models.

The models don't look like they did last month. Of course things could change with upcoming runs.

I'm not seeing tons of rain on the models like last month. Robert must be seeing something somewhere to make a statement like he did though.

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Look at all the convergence over the Carolinas and back into Tennessee...it runs from 500 mb down to the surface...PWAT's in excess of 2 inches and little to no cap...

 

I think its pretty obvious where the wet weather will be setting up later this week.

 

 

GFS_3_2013080412_F120_RH_500_MB.png

 

 

 

GFS_3_2013080412_F120_RH_850_MB.png

 

 

 

 

GFS_3_2013080412_F120_RH_2_M_ABOVE_GROUN

 

 

 

GFS_3_2013080412_F120_PWATIN_SURFACE.png

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Look at all the convergence over the Carolinas and back into Tennessee...it runs from 500 mb down to the surface...PWAT's in excess of 2 inches and little to no cap...

I think its pretty obvious where the wet weather will be setting up later this week.

GFS_3_2013080412_F120_RH_500_MB.png

GFS_3_2013080412_F120_RH_850_MB.png

GFS_3_2013080412_F120_RH_2_M_ABOVE_GROUN

GFS_3_2013080412_F120_PWATIN_SURFACE.png

Looks like northern AL and GA will get some rain too. I guess the big question is will it be a many day event or just a couple. I don't think our July pattern will return for any lengthy amount of time , that was a once in a decade type rain event we just had.
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Looks like northern AL and GA will get some rain too. I guess the big question is will it be a many day event or just a couple. I don't think our July pattern will return for any lengthy amount of time , that was a once in a decade type rain event we just had.

 

I agree that the July pattern was a once every 10 year type of setup...

 

The main point that I think Robert and others are making is that the atmosphere is primed and synoptics are there for some training initially due to the jet stream being so far south for August. Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama and maybe North Georgia involved in that. Then it will transition to upslope flow for the Southern Appalachian Region.

 

Any areas that could possibly flood will be done by relative quick-hitters instead of building up over a multi-day period...short range model data will have to sniff these episodes out.

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Yes, I know back when you were growing up that they didn't have models.

The models don't look like they did last month. Of course things could change with upcoming runs.

Oh, we had models.  I liked Twiggy, and Jean Shrimpton before that :)

  The rain that's headed in now, is dissipating as it comes.  That's one thing the models and prognostications can't always nail.  Are the Haarp derainalizers on or not.  Looking at radar, I'm not holding my breath waiting on this first batch to end the mini drought I've been in this week.  T

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Haven't seen a lot of rain since I've been down here in south GA but it has been hot. My parents say that this has been the hottest stretch so far this summer. Saw a dubious 97F on a bank thermometer in Tallahassee earlier this afternoon and it was consistently above 90 down in Panama City Beach this past weekend. I enjoy my time down here but will be glad to get back to to the cool weather in Vermont.

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