Met1985 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 rain is really picking up here on the southern escarpment had 2 inches since 11pm and its really puttin it down. nws just put transylvania and henderson county under flood advisory. Ah beat me to it. Just think we ae just getting started with this event and flash flooding is going on already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Incredible flooding over chapel hill/ Carrboro and west Durham yesterday. Also a impressive amount of tree.limb damage and powerlines down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 More rain heading towards Chapel Hill... probably not going to help things over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Sounds like GSP are looking for things to really go down here around here as the week progresses. Here is an outlook wrote up this morning. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONTNORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERNCAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREADHEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.HOWEVER...UPSLOPE WINDS INTO THE MOUNTAINS COULD STILL RESULT INLOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE ANDADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. WITH STRONGER THAN NORMAL WIND SHEARAND A SOME DRYING ALOFT...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCEDAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.UNUSUALLY MOIST AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ANDNORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS ANDEVENINGS...BUT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERYHEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH FLASHFLOODING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT AS THE WEEKPROGRESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 0.73 in the bucket overnight as this event has started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 0.75" in the past 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Great write up on the short term by mcavoy @ GSP: .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECAUGHT BETWEEN A STRONG...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERNATLANTIC AND A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THEMISSISSIPPI RIVER. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE A FOUND ARIVER OF EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AIR. TUE AND TUE NIGHT THE GFS KEEPSTHE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS WHERE ITGENERATES THE HEAVIEST PCPN AS WELL. IT LIFTS THIS LLVL JETNORTHWARD...ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF VIRGINIA TUE NIGHTWHILE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA VEERS AROUND TOTHE SSW. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT MUCH LIKE WHAT WE ARE SEEINGTONIGHT...THE FAVORED TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCSACTIVITY MIGHT BE A LITTLE EAST OF OUR FA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILLBE EXPERIENCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND WE WILL STILL BE IN THE ENTRANCEREGION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER JET WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.WHILE I HOPE WE MISS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THISIS BY NO MEANS A SURE BET. EVEN IN THE BEST CASE WE WOULD STILL SEENUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPERRIDGE BOTH SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS PUTS MOSTOF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BUSINESS END OF THE SYSTEM WITH UPPERDIVERGENCE AND CORE OF THE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS ALONG WITH PW/SSURGING WELL OVER 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THOSE LLVL WINDS ARE ONLY ONTHE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS...BUT THAT/S PLENTY TO HELP DEVELOP HEAVYRAIN IN THIS KIND OF TROPICAL PATTERN. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ISPOSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN SOME PARTS OF THE FA. I/VE RAISED POPSTO 70-80 PERCENT AND ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. IN FACT...I RANTHE HEAVY RAIN MENTION DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH WEDNIGHT. AT SOME POINT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDEDFARTHER TO THE WEST,..BUT THAT PROBABLY WON/T HAPPEN UNTIL LATERTODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 1.88" overnight, and about to get hammered again. It just got VERY dark outside with an occasional thunder rumble, and the bottom is dropping out again. Won't take long for the ditches to fill up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 https://nwschat.weather.gov/vtec/#2013-O-NEW-KGSP-FF-A-0005/USCOMP-N0Q-201306301920 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 another .42" in 14 minutes just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Yeah, the other beach dud thread was kind of the same thing? This title seems like it belongs on a whole different board!! Sprinkles yesterday was all I could get out of the big wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 ended up gettin 2.60 from 11 last nite through 8 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Driving in to work on Capital Blvd in Raleigh this morning in a monsoon was awful. No rain right now, but more is supposed to come this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Big wet total so far for the past 3 days is 0.05. We surely got 5-8 inches of rain. Now we are only expecting 0.75-1.25. Currently sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Got to say...a very interesting next 72 hours or longer for the Southeast US... Our first wave of rain has departed the region and is hitting the Mid-Atlantic and up into New York. Item #2 is the mass of precip that's forming in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico...the global models didn't see this one coming. One has to believe it has Eastern Georgia and the Carolina Piedmont as its destination tonight. Along with that enhancement, most of the Southeast (East of the Apps) shall destabilize enough to allow scattered convection to develop. That now brings me to item #3...there is IMO a growing concern for flash flooding and flooding for the Southern Appalachian Region down to the Gulf Coast starting Wednesday. As tonight's feature exits, the big 500mb trough should begin to slowly retrograde allowing the Bermuda High to also shift westward. That will result in more of a Southeast wind orientation for areas of North Georgia and the Western Carolinas which will help to enhance precipitation. Infact the 12z NAM shows an interesting LLJ potential for 0z Wednesday (Tuesday Evening/Night) with 35 kt flow at 850 and 925 mb...that to me is an alarm for nocturnal convection along the eastern slopes of the Apps in Western North Carolina... Also in play is a bundle of energy at 500mb that is currently situated over the Northwest Caribbean. By 48 hours, those vorts will be surging north from the Gulf of Mexico with its eyes set from the Florida Panhandle northward to the Southern Appalachians. Folks, not often do you see weather of a Caribbean origin affect our part of the country @54... @ 60... Central and Eastern Carolinas have racked up so far but the worst in general is yet to come...am very concerned about Wednesday right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Got to say...a very interesting next 72 hours or longer for the Southeast US... Central and Eastern Carolinas have racked up so far but the worst in general is yet to come...am very concerned about Wednesday right now. Interesting write-up. The 12Z GFS looks very suspiciously dry on Tuesday and Wednesday right now. It seems the models are really struggling with QPF this go-around. Meanwhile, the 12Z NAM (FWIW), has some nocturnal convection developing along the escarpment as early as tonight....which of course, the GFS has no signs of. Can't we get the American models to agree (ever?!) at some point? So Marion_NC_Wx - what do you say about the QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 ^^ Good write-up Marion. Thanks for the thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted July 1, 2013 Author Share Posted July 1, 2013 ^^ Good write-up Marion. Thanks for the thoughts! Agree.. it's now on our front page as an article! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 So Wednesday might be the worst yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 So Wednesday might be the worst yet? Tonight might get pretty bad as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Tonight might get pretty bad as well Yea, I am watching upslope potential tonight for the mountains, and then the Foothills and Piedmont areas for tomorrow morning through noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Yea, I am watching upslope potential tonight for the mountains, and then the Foothills and Piedmont areas for tomorrow morning through noon. Seeing you are in AVL, what are your thoughts for Thurs thru Sat night there? I hope my whole trip isnt a rainy one while there and in the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Most of the activity has skirted by area so far, but there has still been 0.30" reported officially at KGSO. It appears that another strong band of rain should roll in later today and into the evening. Tomorrow and Wednesday look ripe for lots of rain and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Interesting write-up. The 12Z GFS looks very suspiciously dry on Tuesday and Wednesday right now. It seems the models are really struggling with QPF this go-around. Meanwhile, the 12Z NAM (FWIW), has some nocturnal convection developing along the escarpment as early as tonight....which of course, the GFS has no signs of. Can't we get the American models to agree (ever?!) at some point? So Marion_NC_Wx - what do you say about the QPF? Sorry for the delay... The GFS is definitely doing a poor job IMO with QPF. It almost seems like the model does better when we have a well developed tropical system as compared to our current setup. As far as QPF for the Southern Apps...if that LLJ tomorrow evening can activate a complex of storms, I wouldn't be shocked to see Western North Carolina get a general 3+ inch rain by Thursday and the favored areas 6 or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Sorry for the delay... The GFS is definitely doing a poor job IMO with QPF. It almost seems like the model does better when we have a well developed tropical system as compared to our current setup. As far as QPF for the Southern Apps...if that LLJ tomorrow evening can activate a complex of storms, I wouldn't be shocked to see Western North Carolina get a general 3+ inch rain by Thursday and the favored areas 6 or more... Yea, Robert is going 6-10", with some areas 10"+ from Tuesday through Friday. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Seeing you are in AVL, what are your thoughts for Thurs thru Sat night there? I hope my whole trip isnt a rainy one while there and in the mtns The good news is it starts to dry out towards the weekend, but Thursday and Friday should be absolute soakers. Not necessarily rain all day, but good coverage of showers/storms both days, and when you get underneath one, it should pour buckets. Precip chances lessen by Saturday as the Bermuda high moves a little further west and the brunt of the moisture gets channeled into TN and the Ohio Valley. That being said, plenty of moisture will hang around for at least an isolated to maybe scattered threat of showers and storms - though the coverage should be quite a bit less than Thursday and Friday. Up until then though, Tuesday and Wednesday could set the stage for big river and stream flooding around here by the time you get up here on Thursday. Be wary about driving in rain around here. You never know when a mudslide might come down the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Going to be an interesting 48 to 72 hours. I guess it has to get worse before it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 The good news is it starts to dry out towards the weekend, but Thursday and Friday should be absolute soakers. Not necessarily rain all day, but good coverage of showers/storms both days, and when you get underneath one, it should pour buckets. Precip chances lessen by Saturday as the Bermuda high moves a little further west and the brunt of the moisture gets channeled into TN and the Ohio Valley. That being said, plenty of moisture will hang around for at least an isolated to maybe scattered threat of showers and storms - though the coverage should be quite a bit less than Thursday and Friday. Up until then though, Tuesday and Wednesday could set the stage for big river and stream flooding around here by the time you get up here on Thursday. Be wary about driving in rain around here. You never know when a mudslide might come down the mountain. Thanks Hurricane Tracker. I was concerned about Fri being a washout too. Ugh, oh well cant control the weather. I am always expecting the typical summer pop up storms when I go to WNC. So it looks like Saturday is the only decent day to get out to the mountains and hike a little I guess. Thanks for the information and will keep an eye on the road conditions and any potential mudslides on our route. Much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Thanks Hurricane Tracker. I was concerned about Fri being a washout too. Ugh, oh well cant control the weather. I am always expecting the typical summer pop up storms when I go to WNC. So it looks like Saturday is the only decent day to get out to the mountains and hike a little I guess. Thanks for the information and will keep an eye on the road conditions and any potential mudslides on our route. Much appreciated No problem - glad I could help. Yea, I would hold off hiking until Saturday. But by then, you should find some good waterfalls and check 'em out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 FFC is going with 2-3" most areas from Wed-Fri. Nothing out of the ordinary for July. After all, July is typically one of our wettest months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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