Met1985 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 It sure seems like it. Of course today looked to be a dry day for WNC or the AVL area hopefully. I see some popcorn storms over Eastern TN. You guys need a break so bad. I looked at the mt mitchell cam and clouds are just skirting the summit. figures, just my luck. Hopefully you will get a chance to dry out, I would gladly take some of your rain up here It doesnt look like that will happen soon down there. Maybe a day here or there but man you are gonna need major sunshine to dry out. I can imagine the mold spores are wicked high. Is all this rain affecting the rafting and whitewater rafting companies? they must be hating all this rain making the rives to turbulent to tube or raft down? Ya Dave we have had 11 days straight with measurable rainfall. It rained this morning and we picked up .12 inches. Not much but the ground is super saturated. The rafting campanies I am not so sure about but weare seeing a lot of idiots out there trying to kayak down the river and we have had a few that have been in some bad shape and a few who have died from trying to get in the rivers. I have no clue why people are so freaking stupid. We have had like 4 people just in Haywood county have had to be rescued or have been swept away only to find down the river dead. Not good at all around here. Major rapids and with more rain possible the next few weeks I do not see the rivers letting up anytime soon. I mean up near were Don lives had major flooding yesterday and a large landslide have cutoff whole communities from the main road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 What a pattern. After July is done, we may look back and think this June/July as being the Winter equivalent of the Feb/March 1960 pattern, just Summer version....basically same areas getting nailed again. I already don't like what I see coming up. First, the shear zone in place from Alabama through Virginia...this is creating training right now, and next up will be an upper low carving out and grabbing this shear zone tonight. This will spell pretty bad news in its own right for NC, VA and eastern West VA. That upper low retrogrades southwest slowly, meanhwile offshore the ridge will build, once again. to 594. It's position is still a little iffy, but right now, I think it will be in a good spot to funnel the Tropical Remnants of Chantal straight into the GA, SC, NC, and VA coastline. Before then, theres a chance that 2 meso lows form in the shear zone, perhaps 3. I'd just broad brush the lee of the Apps with one big meso low, LOL. acutally a lee side trough, but the net effect is that lifting and wringing out moisture in this 2" PWAT atmosphere to the max. A brief break for TN, western VA, western Carolinas on Friday but quickly on Saturday the flow turns out of the Atlantic, and theres probably 2 centeres of circulation, 3 if you count the remnants of Chantal (if theres anything left to it)...one in southern GA, one western Kentucky, and then offshore...the net effect is to combine with the Offshore high to pummel the beaches and the piedmont and work west. At that point on Sunday, its hard to say if 850 winds pick up for the Southern Apps or not. I saw a few panels that nailed western VA around Roanoke and some that were further south toward GSP region, but eventually with that high offshore and at 594, and a retrograding upper low, you have to be reminded of early May of this year, and what just happened. LOTS OF UPSLOPE....nevermind the GFS exact output on the amounts. It was wrong in June with juicy air in both piedmont and mountains (but oddly enough got TN valley portion correct). Same thing will happen this time IF IF we do get the 594 ridge to build perfectly and do a funnelling, converging job in the Southern or central Apps. I'm not certain yet if VA or NC or GA takes the brunt on the Spine of the Apps, but I'm pretty certain one or more will. Hope its not southwest NC or northeast GA as that region can't stand any more upsloping...and this could be another large ribbon that last 12 hours or even more....some runs of GFS on the 7h and moisture convergence fields looked really, really scary, especially if you compare what happened just recently in that exact same setup, and accept the fact that it blew the QPF numbers. So the bottom line is once again, the flow will back. Once again, we're going to be sandwiched between 2 main ridges, and possibly for quite a while. Copious and I mean really copious juicy PWAT air, even for July, is going to come screaming back inland and this time there's a pretty strong shear axis at first that morphs into upsloping. It's hard to imagine after all the ways the Southeast has avoided widespread big rain events in Summer, that this particular Spring and Summer the Atmosphere has conspired every conceivable piece of synoptic piece needed to create a puzzle of maximum rainfall here. The only thing missing is a few tropical cyclones that hit in succession over the next few weeks/months to top off the wettest pattern in recorded history. I'm not calling for that though. At some point, we'll probably get into a closed ridge and all the moisture in the ground will bake out and some areas will recognize their all time highest dewpoints. I can see that coming just as soon as we get said High to close off over us. Anyway, enjoy your rains. Again. I'm up to almost 9" for the month with todays 3 separate thunderstorms. I don't remember a month here with more than about 10 maybe 12" and those are so rare. I think this month will beat it. A couple GFS Panels Saturday, Sunday: GFSpoisedSat.gif GFSpoisedSun.gif Great write up Robert. Good info on the site and thanks again for dropping by and giving your opinon on the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Is all this rain affecting the rafting and whitewater rafting companies? they must be hating all this rain making the rives to turbulent to tube or raft down? I drove to Hot Springs the other day for work and the rafting companies looked packed but I am not sure now with this last batch of storms. The past week I have really been seeing a tonnn of kayaks on cars, parked cars by the river, and people carrying kayaks down to the banks. They seem to be shreding non stop, but heck I can't blame them this is a rare occurance. I would just hate to be their employers haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Ya Dave we have had 11 days straight with measurable rainfall. It rained this morning and we picked up .12 inches. Not much but the ground is super saturated. The rafting campanies I am not so sure about but weare seeing a lot of idiots out there trying to kayak down the river and we have had a few that have been in some bad shape and a few who have died from trying to get in the rivers. I have no clue why people are so freaking stupid. We have had like 4 people just in Haywood county have had to be rescued or have been swept away only to find down the river dead. Not good at all around here. Major rapids and with more rain possible the next few weeks I do not see the rivers letting up anytime soon. I mean up near were Don lives had major flooding yesterday and a large landslide have cutoff whole communities from the main road. I saw that about up near Don's area north of AVL. Incredible with the landslides. Yeah even with a day here and there of no rain those rivers are going to be roaring with life. If I even was a seasoned kayaker, I dont know if I would even tackle the rivers at this point. It is nuts. I remember watching the news last weekend there and some people have died from going in the rivers. Its pretty sad. Some people under estimate the power of water I guess. Be well Met. Hang in there. I can only imagine if this was winter, the snowbacks along I 40 and 26 in the mountains would be insane. They would be using those huge snowblowers to eat down the snowbanks. what a though I drove to Hot Springs the other day for work and the rafting companies looked packed but I am not sure now with this last batch of storms. The past week I have really been seeing a tonnn of kayaks on cars, parked cars by the river, and people carrying kayaks down to the banks. They seem to be shreding non stop, but heck I can't blame them this is a rare occurance. I would just hate to be their employers haha. Wow, Im surprised they are out on the rivers. Man those people must be signing waiver after waiver so the company isnt sued if something happened to their guests on their rafts/kayaks. I can see the challenge there but man to risk my life, I dont know. Like you said though, this is a rare occurence, some want to give a wail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 just picked up .87 from a thunderstorm that brings my yearly total to 87.48 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 just picked up .87 from a thunderstorm that brings my yearly total to 87.48 inches. Lol that is crazy. Wow just amazing how much rain we have recieved but 87 inches is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I saw that about up near Don's area north of AVL. Incredible with the landslides. Yeah even with a day here and there of no rain those rivers are going to be roaring with life. If I even was a seasoned kayaker, I dont know if I would even tackle the rivers at this point. It is nuts. I remember watching the news last weekend there and some people have died from going in the rivers. Its pretty sad. Some people under estimate the power of water I guess. Be well Met. Hang in there. I can only imagine if this was winter, the snowbacks along I 40 and 26 in the mountains would be insane. They would be using those huge snowblowers to eat down the snowbanks. what a though Wow, Im surprised they are out on the rivers. Man those people must be signing waiver after waiver so the company isnt sued if something happened to their guests on their rafts/kayaks. I can see the challenge there but man to risk my life, I dont know. Like you said though, this is a rare occurence, some want to give a wail Lol I can only hope for a fraction of this in the winter months. If would be great of this pattern stuck around for another 8 months or so. With all the cold fronts coming in and cutoff lows that would be nuts. Take care Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 wow, that's some heavy, slow moving rain from Vidalia, GA to Florence, SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 just picked up .87 from a thunderstorm that brings my yearly total to 87.48 inches. I'm speechless. You win. That can't be beat by any of the rest of us, even if we had the rest of the calendar year. (Well, maybe Met1985 would have a chance...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I'm speechless. You win. That can't be beat by any of the rest of us, even if we had the rest of the calendar year. (Well, maybe Met1985 would have a chance...) Thanks Calculus! I would try to make a run but I don't think I could catch up to him. The way our locations are if he gets it I will get it but ya I am pretty speechless also. What a micro climate he is in. What a year for rainfall in the SE. Crazy stuff indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Do you agree with the forecast? They had heavy t-storms in the forecast all day, and when it became obvious that it was not going to happen, they doubled down extended the watch until 4 AM. We will be lucky to get a light shower here tonight. Most areas had no rain and there's was an 80% chance of rain. They called for widespread 1/2-1 inch amounts in north ga with locally more and I have no idea why they issued a flash flood watch. Should have been maybe a 20% chance of rain instead of 80% . I should have been suspicious when I noticed that areas 15 miles to my west in Alabama had a 30% chance of rain. BMX definitely did as better job forecasting today than FFC. I think BMX took into consideration the complex of storms that moved through last night while FFC didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Big Wet totals.. 14 days of a trace or better... for a total of exactly 6.50" as of 6am today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Looking out toward Greenbrier Pinnacle in the Smokies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 That was the free blog. I'm sure the pay blog had better info. He doesn't talk about weather too much on the free side anymore, unfortunately. Maybe, but there seems to be a big difference in what WRAL is saying and what Allan said in the blog and what wa sin his forecast. WRAL makes it sound like it's going to rain all day Saturday, while Allan said it was going to be a nice weekend and only had a 20% chance of rain for Saturday in his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Maybe, but there seems to be a big difference in what WRAL is saying and what Allan said in the blog and what wa sin his forecast. WRAL makes it sound like it's going to rain all day Saturday, while Allan said it was going to be a nice weekend and only had a 20% chance of rain for Saturday in his forecast. Yes, but his forecast was updated 2 days ago, and some things may have changed since then. I don't remember what WRAL was forecasting on the 10th. He hasn't done an Examiner update since then, which is kind of odd, since there's a potential for a significant weather impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Man, it's taking forever for the rain to get cranking over the Triangle area. Looks like some areas just west of I-95 are getting pounded, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 1.50" in the last hour when this storm started, 1.70" for the day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 1.50" in the last hour when this storm started, 1.70" for the day so far. I was just thinking about you, Mr. Solak. I was wondering how much you were getting. Looks like you're under a Flash Flood warning now. That heavy rain has extended into SE Wake now, right over my house. Looks to rain here for a good while. I mean, it's coming down in buckets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Southern part of McDowell County getting hammered, most everyone south of I-40 have picked up 1 to 1.5 inches in last 2 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 We picked up 1.00 inches around midnight last night and just got hammered again with another 1.75 inches(which included some dime sized hail). That brings our july total up to 12.5 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Picked up another .91" from 3:05PM to 4:35PM bring the storm total to 2.41. July is now at 7.62" and we're at 15.42" since June 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Can anyone explain why we in the Western Triangle haven't seen rain all day, especially now with NOAA dropping Durham's rain chances down to 30% for the night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Well... as the initial area of convection has moved well into Upstate South Carolina, a new round of storms are laying anchor along the escarpment...Transylvania County and also in Caldwell County. I think the next 48 hours are gonna be interesting...late tonight and early tomorrow the flood gates from the southeast flow should return as our upper low drops into the Tennessee Valley Region. Fortunately this retrograde will actually continue to move instead of putting on the brakes like the previous one did. I think the models are pretty close on coverage are but given that we will be dealing with a true tropical air flow (Chantal remnant), I expect to see some training that can get scattered totals of 3+ inches...short range model data has indicated tomorrow night/early Sunday as a possible timeframe for the North Carolina mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Can anyone explain why we in the Western Triangle haven't seen rain all day, especially now with NOAA dropping Durham's rain chances down to 30% for the night? This afternoon's RAH AFD explains it pretty well. THE COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AND NOW EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG A LINE FROM KORF-KETC- KMEB AND CONTINUING TO THE SW. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS HAS HELPED TO KEEP A GOOD PORTION (PARTICULARLY THE NW HALF) OF OUR CWA DRY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Well I thought today was going to break our tring of rainy days but this evening we have showers starting up and back building toward the TN/NC boarder. 12th straight day of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Well... as the initial area of convection has moved well into Upstate South Carolina, a new round of storms are laying anchor along the escarpment...Transylvania County and also in Caldwell County. I think the next 48 hours are gonna be interesting...late tonight and early tomorrow the flood gates from the southeast flow should return as our upper low drops into the Tennessee Valley Region. Fortunately this retrograde will actually continue to move instead of putting on the brakes like the previous one did. I think the models are pretty close on coverage are but given that we will be dealing with a true tropical air flow (Chantal remnant), I expect to see some training that can get scattered totals of 3+ inches...short range model data has indicated tomorrow night/early Sunday as a possible timeframe for the North Carolina mountains. Yep loosk pretty good for the upslope regions who keep getting hammered like Rainforrest and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 We ended up with around 2 inches this afternoon (maybe a little more), in about an hour/hour and a half. I drove around the neighborhood after it had been raining hard for about an hour, and the amount of standing water in people's yards, streams of water washing through the drainage ditches, spilling out into the streets, and just ponding everywhere was the most impressive flooding that I've seen as long as I've lived here. It will be nice to finally get a few days of drying next week. I love all the rain, but it's getting impossible to walk in the yard, much less mow the grass or work in the garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 No rain today, nice light show, lots of cloud to cloud lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Flash flood event unfolding over Burke and McDowell Counties...2-4 inches of rain since 8 pm. It's getting bad in Morganton apparently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 My god, reading the statements coming from Caldwell county of trees and power lines down plus parts of Hwy 90 closing. Bad stuff, Burke county is getting pretty rough from all the reports I've read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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