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The Big Wet of 2013

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Beaverdam fire department reporting 3 feet of water in their parking lot and unable to respond to calls. Things got bad quick here in Asheville.

Yep looks like Asheville and surrounding areas are getting hammered still. That cell that moved through here laid down 2 inches of rain in about 2 hours. River was coming up. All streams and creeks were running out of there banks. there were rivers flowing were there should have not been. Crazy mess out there.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

You are half of what Mt Mitchell has recorded for the year and about 6000 feet lower.  Pretty wild

 

 

wow! You guys cant catch a break lately. just incredible rainfall amounts for WNC. Good luck to you all

Ya Dave we cannot catch a break man. It just keeps pouring. We are going to need about a month to dry out from all of this.

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

You made it out just in time Dave! :maprain: = :flood:

Don how are things that way. Had a friend call me and he had about 10 feet of his property slide down the mountain this evening with the rains. We have way to much rain man. I have never seen anything like it without a tropical system coming inland.

Yeah Don I heard the Reems Creek area was bad, would love to hear anything you got. I am uploading a video I took of Asheville Country Club and the river that overtook its fairways about an hour ago.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Tonight was like the last several nights.  A nice group of storms approached from the southwest.  It looked like a dead on hit.  I even heard the thunder approaching.  Then a split opened a gap that slid right over my house between two cells only a mile on either side of me. Moses could not have divided it any better. Total 0.0.

 

 An hour later another group approached and looked pretty strong, but began falling apart one county to the west.  The remnants passed over me.  Total  0.14.   Pffft.

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SharonA

SharonA

Posted
Posted

NW Alabama is wet and wetter.  We had a couple of dry days, which helped a bit with the field-yard-ditch flooding but you've got multiple states' worth of runoff going into the Tennessee River and passing through on its trek to the Mississippi.  Meaning we could be bone-dry rain-wise and still have flooding.

 

The average river level at the Tennessee river's Florence gauge is 13 ft.  It's now at over 20ft and will crest higher.

 

Moulton, AL had over 8" on Thursday the 4th, and a 2-day total of 10.65".  I was driving through Moulton on the way home on the 4th, and Hwy 157 was under an inch or more in some areas with the ditches all overflowing. Fields and yards and parking lots were flooded.  Of course it still was raining heavily, so things got worse after I left.

 

Here are some Alabama figures, from the Moulton gauge operated by TVA.  That 11" month-to-date figure doesn't include the storms that passed through tonight dumping another 2+" on some areas:

 

0381 - Moulton, AL (TVA)
Mon 7/1    0.00
Tue 7/2    0.00
Wed 7/3 0.23
Thu 7/4 8.11
Fri 7/5    2.54
Sat 7/6 0.02
Sun 7/7 0.15
Mon 7/8 0.01
Tue 7/9    0.07    
Total for July      11.13

 

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Don how are things that way. Had a friend call me and he had about 10 feet of his property slide down the mountain this evening with the rains. We have way to much rain man. I have never seen anything like it without a tropical system coming inland.

 

 

Yeah Don I heard the Reems Creek area was bad, would love to hear anything you got. I am uploading a video I took of Asheville Country Club and the river that overtook its fairways about an hour ago.

 

The Northern end of the county is just a mess guys! Multiple issues with flash flooding. Incl. Reems Creek which washed away Reems Creek rd., as Hvward said Beaverdam fire dept. was fully flooded (1st time in 35 yrs) & will not be operational for up to a week. There is a new sinkhole @ a strip mall in Weaverville. So far we have been very fortunate that there haven't been any major mudslides up in this part of the county. GSP has a good write up about it in the overnight short term. I will post it along with some links to stories on what I have mentioned above.

 

GSP:

 

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY AND INTERACT

WITH A LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (PWATS OF AROUND 2

INCHES) TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE STILL VERY CONCERNED ABOUT

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LOW FFG/S ACROSS THE CWA. A FAIRLY

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD OCCURRED IN THE ASHEVILLE AREA YESTERDAY

WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN IN OVER AN HOUR. THE GROUND

SIMPLY CANNOT HANDLE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS A MAJORITY OF

THE AREA. WHILE WE WOULD NOT TYPICALLY CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH

BASED UPON TODAY/S METEOROLOGY ALONE...WE FEEL THE DIRE ANTECEDENT

CONDITIONS WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN FFA...AS STRONGER CELLS SHOULD BE

EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH PWATS.

BASED UPON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE

PLUME...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH AND EAST

SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AND MOST PROLONGED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION

(THESE AREAS INCIDENTALLY HAVE THE MOST CRITICAL ANTECEDENT

CONDITIONS AS WELL)...AND THE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE

AREAS.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ053&warncounty=NCC021&firewxzone=NCZ053&local_place1=&product1=Flash+Flood+Watch#.Ud6dJG1t7Tc

 

Asheville Citizen-Times story:

 

http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20130711/NEWS/307110015/No-letup-sight-waterlogged-Asheville

 

WLOS vids:

 

http://www.wlos.com/shared/news/features/top-stories/stories/wlos_beaverdam-flash-flooding-12414.shtml

 

http://www.wlos.com/shared/news/features/top-stories/stories/wlos_weaverville-sinkhole-12402.shtml

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

What a pattern. After July is done, we may look back and think this June/July as being the Winter equivalent of the Feb/March 1960 pattern, just Summer version....basically same areas getting nailed again. I already don't like what I see coming up.  First, the shear zone in place from Alabama through Virginia...this is creating training right now, and next up will be an upper low carving out and grabbing this shear zone tonight. This will spell pretty bad news in its own right for NC, VA and eastern West VA.

That upper low retrogrades southwest slowly, meanhwile offshore the ridge will build, once again. to 594.  It's position is still a little iffy, but right now, I think it will be in a good spot to funnel the Tropical Remnants of Chantal straight into the GA, SC, NC, and VA coastline.  Before then, theres a chance that 2 meso lows form in the shear zone, perhaps 3.  I'd just broad brush the lee of the Apps with one big meso low, LOL. acutally a lee side trough, but the net effect is that lifting and wringing out moisture in this 2" PWAT atmosphere to the max.  A brief break for TN, western VA, western Carolinas on Friday but quickly on Saturday the flow turns out of the Atlantic, and theres probably 2 centeres of circulation, 3 if you count the remnants of Chantal (if theres anything left to it)...one in southern GA, one western Kentucky, and then offshore...the net effect is to combine with the Offshore high to pummel the beaches and the piedmont and work west. At that point on Sunday, its hard to say if 850 winds pick up for the Southern Apps or not.  I saw a few panels that nailed western VA around Roanoke and some that were further south toward GSP region, but eventually with that high offshore and at 594, and a retrograding upper low, you have to be reminded of early May of this year, and what just happened.

LOTS OF UPSLOPE....nevermind the GFS exact output on the amounts. It was wrong in June with juicy air in both piedmont and mountains (but oddly enough got TN valley portion correct).  Same thing will happen this time IF IF we do get the 594 ridge to build perfectly and do a funnelling, converging job in the Southern or central Apps. I'm not certain yet if VA or NC or GA takes the brunt on the Spine of the Apps, but I'm pretty certain one or more will.  Hope its not southwest NC or northeast GA as that region can't stand any more upsloping...and this could be another large ribbon that last 12 hours or even more....some runs of GFS on the 7h and moisture convergence fields looked really, really scary, especially if you compare what happened just recently in that exact same setup, and accept the fact that it blew the QPF numbers. 

So the bottom line is once again, the flow will back.  Once again, we're going to be sandwiched between 2 main ridges, and possibly for quite  a  while. Copious and I mean really copious juicy PWAT air, even for July, is going to come screaming back inland and this time there's a pretty strong shear axis at first that morphs into upsloping.   

It's hard to imagine after all the ways the Southeast has avoided widespread big rain events in Summer, that this particular Spring and Summer the Atmosphere has conspired every conceivable piece of synoptic piece needed to create a puzzle of maximum rainfall here. The only thing missing is a few tropical cyclones that hit in succession over the next few weeks/months to top off the wettest pattern in recorded history. I'm not calling for that though. At some point, we'll probably get into a closed ridge and all the moisture in the ground will bake out and some areas will recognize their all time highest dewpoints. I can see that coming just as soon as we get said High to close off over us. 

Anyway, enjoy your rains. Again.  I'm up to almost 9" for the month with todays 3 separate thunderstorms. I don't remember a month here with more than about 10 maybe 12" and those are so rare.  I think this month will beat it.  

A couple GFS Panels Saturday, Sunday:

post-38-0-70467500-1373571409_thumb.gif

 

post-38-0-01096900-1373571431_thumb.gif

 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

WRAL and WxSouth talking about a lot of rain for NC, but Allan Huffman said yesterday in his blog that the weekend will be nice for Raleigh.

That was the free blog. I'm sure the pay blog had better info. He doesn't talk about weather too much on the free side anymore, unfortunately.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

It's just you. 

Do you agree with the forecast? They had heavy t-storms in the forecast all day, and when it became obvious that it was not going to happen, they doubled down extended the watch until 4 AM. We will be lucky to get a light shower here tonight.

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isohume

isohume

Posted
Posted

Do you agree with the forecast? They had heavy t-storms in the forecast all day, and when it became obvious that it was not going to happen, they doubled down extended the watch until 4 AM. We will be lucky to get a light shower here tonight.

 

I didn't follow their forecasts. Certainly with the saturated prefrontal trof over the region there was a good potential for flooding storms given the antecedent conds. Forecasting the exact placement of convection is low skill and it looks like central GA is under the gun attm...with flooding convection off to the east.    

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

Most areas may not be hit this evening but the storms that do form are slow moving and are dropping very heavy rain on saturated ground. I think GSP and Atlanta had to issue the watches. The storms seemed to get more widespread after sunset Monday and Tuesday and that may happen again tonight. It isn't raining where I live, but much of my county is getting pounded at the moment.

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted

Most areas may not be hit this evening but the storms that do form are slow moving and are dropping very heavy rain on saturated ground. I think GSP and Atlanta had to issue the watches. The storms seemed to get more widespread after sunset Monday and Tuesday and that may happen again tonight. It isn't raining where I live, but much of my county is getting pounded at the moment.

the grounds probably like a wet sponge across the entire southeast. lived in charlotte for 13 years and dont remember it being this wet. WOW can probably agree that mooresville got a historic monsoon. 

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Avdave

Avdave

Posted
Posted

You made it out just in time Dave! :maprain: = :flood:

:lol: It sure seems like it. Of course today looked to be a dry day for WNC or the AVL area hopefully. I see some popcorn storms over Eastern TN. You guys need a break so bad. I looked at the mt mitchell cam and clouds are just skirting the summit. figures, just my luck.

Hopefully you will get a chance to dry out, I would gladly take some of your rain up here

 

Ya Dave we cannot catch a break man. It just keeps pouring. We are going to need about a month to dry out from all of this.

It doesnt look like that will happen soon down there. Maybe a day here or there but man you are gonna need major sunshine to dry out. I can imagine the mold spores are wicked high. 

 

Is all this rain affecting the rafting and whitewater rafting companies? they must be hating all this rain making the rives to turbulent to tube or raft down?

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