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The Big Wet of 2013


Wow

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We've picked up about 0.6" in Columbus, but Auburn saw about 1.1". Areas near Eufaula have seen more than 5" & LaGrange up to Newnan have seen similar totals, so it's really hit or miss in my DMA alone.

 

I think the line of continuous rain today will be along the I-65 & I-59 corridors. Those east of there will have to wait for daytime heating to see more widespread activity, about what happened last night in Central GA.

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This has been a terrible storm for Atlanta and those immediately east. That line is continuously pounding West GA and Alabama...wow, the models have just been terrible. I really thought I'd be getting 3-5, but it's likely, I won't even get above 1.5 when it's all said and done.

Yep - looking at some sort of "fake boundary" that is keeping the rain from us, too... 

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2.05" yesterday. .06" so far today, bringing the event total to 3.21". Creeks, streams, and several local rivers are full. It is apparent the more concentrated batches of rain will remain west of the area, impacting Middle Tennessee. However, I expect the mountains will see further development of convective showers as storms as the day continues. Thus, I don't believe we're out of the woods yet.

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This has been a terrible storm for Atlanta and those immediately east. That line is continuously pounding West GA and Alabama...wow, the models have just been terrible. I really thought I'd be getting 3-5, but it's likely, I won't even get above 1.5 when it's all said and done.

This is where looking at 500 mb vort comes in handy. The QPF fields are one of the last things I look at to be honest. The GFS has been pretty decent, for the most part..., with the locations of these vorticity lobes moving in from the Gulf. I've leaned on the location of these for my forecast the past few days and it's worked out okay for me. At least this time... :lol:

 

Here's the 00Z GFS from today (last night) showing the vort lobe over eastern AL this PM, where most of the rain is now:

post-1807-0-23448700-1372952171_thumb.gi

 

You can check here for older runs of the GFS, and other models, to compare how it has done. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013070300/ Again, it's not a perfect way of doing things... But it gets the job done. :)

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The batch that came through here means business if it holds together on up into the NC foothills. We have picked up 1.95 here since just before 9pm.

Glad you finally got hit, and you're right...that line got me good last night, then another line was maxed out on radar right over me. I was shocked to see how much fell this morning.  4.29" is my total this month, most of it from last night and early this morning.  Now more showers upsloping again, and these showers are really efficient. I don't see much change in overall setup, with upslope into western NC and extreme nw SC, and you can see on radar from Columbia and GSP how the upsloping works, as moisture lifts, echoes develop from out of nowhwere between CAE, GSP....very typical in this flow. Points west are under the solid flux of the rain train, and there will be more records to come today.  By Saturday, the flow tips more southwesterly, as the ridge never comes much further inland, and the trough begins to slowly move east again, essentially keeping what we have right now on radar, basically the same the next few days (with some ebb and flow).  Overall, I very much like my call from a while back and stick by  my 6 to 10" amounts where I drew them...but would add bigger amounts in mid TN due south through AL.

(doubt ATL, CSG breaks rain records considering Alberto back in 1994 at this time) But AL, TN and AVL once again likely.

post-38-0-86182900-1372952649_thumb.jpg

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Rosie, quite the difference between you and me!  I've only just reached 3/4's of an inch and it took 16 hours to get it, but it was what you want now, a nice gentle, soaking rain, that gave me the most bang for the buck.  I'm content though, once again, the train has set up west of me, and I'll soon be in the dry slot once more.   Tony

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Rosie, quite the difference between you and me!  I've only just reached 3/4's of an inch and it took 16 hours to get it, but it was what you want now, a nice gentle, soaking rain, that gave me the most bang for the buck.  I'm content though, once again, the train has set up west of me, and I'll soon be in the dry slot once more.   Tony

Wish I could send it to you, nearly a foot in June, too much! Hope you get decent rains the rest of the summer. Only reached 70 here yesterday.

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man it just cant quit raining.

 

The upslope generator is still in force, thanks to that High nosing in.  Eventually the flow will tip more positive once that trough gets absorbed in a few days and slides slowly east, but still has a strong Gulf tap (less of an upslope though) so it will still likely rain there, and possibly train too, just from a different process. In fact I think some areas esp. your region, and a few others like eastern or northern Alabama, mid TN will have a close call on the wettest July on record. There's really not much change aloft....continuous Gulf flow , sandwhiched between 2 big ridges, so daily convection is a given in the Southeast with this setup. Not to mention if a TS can sneak under the Bermuda ridge, it will  have no choice but to head into the Gulf and likely then inland. BTW, theres a tropical low coming across FL panhandle and SE AL right now.

Starting to wonder if the heavy rain will ever reach my area.

Hard to believe you're missing out. Eventually the mass to your southwest could come your way. If not, the next few days when the flow turns more Southwesterly will bring a good chance as well.  Happy 4th to everyone.

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The upslope generator is still in force, thanks to that High nosing in.  Eventually the flow will tip more positive once that trough gets absorbed in a few days and slides slowly east, but still has a strong Gulf tap (less of an upslope though) so it will still likely rain there, and possibly train too, just from a different process. In fact I think some areas esp. your region, and a few others like eastern or northern Alabama, mid TN will have a close call on the wettest July on record. There's really not much change aloft....continuous Gulf flow , sandwhiched between 2 big ridges, so daily convection is a given in the Southeast with this setup. Not to mention if a TS can sneak under the Bermuda ridge, it will  have no choice but to head into the Gulf and likely then inland. BTW, theres a tropical low coming across FL panhandle and SE AL right now.

Hard to believe you're missing out. Eventually the mass to your southwest could come your way. If not, the next few days when the flow turns more Southwesterly will bring a good chance as well.  Happy 4th to everyone.

yea we ended up with 18.60 inches for the month of june and already approaching 10 for the first four days of july.

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The upslope generator is still in force, thanks to that High nosing in. Eventually the flow will tip more positive once that trough gets absorbed in a few days and slides slowly east, but still has a strong Gulf tap (less of an upslope though) so it will still likely rain there, and possibly train too, just from a different process. In fact I think some areas esp. your region, and a few others like eastern or northern Alabama, mid TN will have a close call on the wettest July on record. There's really not much change aloft....continuous Gulf flow , sandwhiched between 2 big ridges, so daily convection is a given in the Southeast with this setup. Not to mention if a TS can sneak under the Bermuda ridge, it will have no choice but to head into the Gulf and likely then inland. BTW, theres a tropical low coming across FL panhandle and SE AL right now.

Hard to believe you're missing out. Eventually the mass to your southwest could come your way. If not, the next few days when the flow turns more Southwesterly will bring a good chance as well. Happy 4th to everyone.

getting lots of light rain, occasionally a moderate shower that will last for about a minute. Nothing heavy though
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I'm up to .8 for the last 5 days.  HOw I can continue to be in the dry slot amazes me, but it's been all to familiar for the last 13 years or so.  Some micro climate change that has me in the perpetual screw zone, winter or summer.  In 99 I had a massively wet period.  I had rooster tales of water a foot or two high coming out of the back yard during heavy rains, from the underground stream that passed by.  It has been pretty much drought around here since, with scattered wetter periods, but nothing like what parts north, south, east, or west seem to get with regularity, lol. Heck, the Experiment Station a few mile away had twice my amounts when I did the research recently.   I hope I can pull an inch out of this event, but I'm not holding my breath, looking down stream at the slot of dry I'm in.  T

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I'm up to .8 for the last 5 days. HOw I can continue to be in the dry slot amazes me, but it's been all to familiar for the last 13 years or so. Some micro climate change that has me in the perpetual screw zone, winter or summer. In 99 I had a massively wet period. I had rooster tales of water a foot or two high coming out of the back yard during heavy rains, from the underground stream that passed by. It has been pretty much drought around here since, with scattered wetter periods, but nothing like what parts north, south, east, or west seem to get with regularity, lol. Heck, the Experiment Station a few mile away had twice my amounts when I did the research recently. I hope I can pull an inch out of this event, but I'm not holding my breath, looking down stream at the slot of dry I'm in. T

Sounds like you and I are in the same boat. Band after band of heavy rain continuously miss me and end up hitting the same areas. There's another band of heavy rain to my south, but of course it is headed east of me towards metro atlanta. It looks like your area should get some pretty heavy rain soon. Also, what is up with that gigantic dry slot across the eastern half of AL ?
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Made it to AVL. all sunshine today from Roanoke to the NC/TN line on I 26. Literally as soon we crossed into NC the rain and skies just started dumping in Sams Gap. Then it lightened for a bit then coming down towards Mars Hill, it was near zero vis with some of the rain and it rained like that all the way past weaverville. Got a few glimpses of the French Broad River and wow is she ripping.

Only part in SW VA was climbing the plateau from Ironto to Christiansburg, VA and it poured big time there.

Looks like any fireworks show in Maggie Valley or AVL area wont be going off tonight with whats still to come from the upstate SC region into WNC.

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