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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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It looks like places like Newark and La Guardia are on track for 95-96 today with

Central Park 93-94.

 

Agreed.

 

LGA, TEB, EWR, LDJ should record their first official heat wave of the summer today (second of the year). Central Park got their first 90 yesterday.

 

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Agreed.

 

LGA, TEB, EWR, LDJ should record their first official heat wave of the summer today (second of the year). Central Park got their first 90 yesterday.

 

 

Yeah, it think the 594 dm ridge being further east near the Atlantic prevented this airmass from becoming another 100 degree one. The July 2010-2011 record heat built over the Planes, Midwest, and Lakes before coming east.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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What new climate is that?  Climatologically this is very close to the hottest part of the calendar year, so I see nothing out of the ordinary about a few very warm days...

 

 

William, there was subtle sarcasm in that, I guess too subtle. Did you think I switched to the dark side? Not yet at least...

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William, there was subtle sarcasm in that, I guess too subtle. Did you think I switched to the dark side? Not yet at least...

In summer if it's not cloudy and raining it almost always manages to go above normal, even by a couple degrees, and that's against the 1980-2010 climate block, the warmest one on record.

Not to say we don't have a few days here and there that manage to be sunny AND below normal temp wise, but it's definitely the exception rather than the rule.

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In summer if it's not cloudy and raining it almost always manages to go above normal, even by a couple degrees, and that's against the 1980-2010 climate block, the warmest one on record.

Not to say we don't have a few days here and there that manage to be sunny AND below normal temp wise, but it's definitely the exception rather than the rule.

 

2005 on has been just an amazing run for summer heat records compared to what came before it

with the two hottest summers on record and only 2 below normal years.

 

 

 

 

 

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Yea it's fairly easy to be above normal in the summer, which could be surprising given its climatological averages are already high, but its also very easy to heat up with no cool air source, plenty of Atlantic ridging and the high sun angle.

Still most of the above normal departures come with the mins as highs don't often go above 95. Those extremes you will not see unlike in winter where highs can be some 30+ degrees above the norm.

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Today could be the hottest day of the summer. That's mainly due to the high sun angle + WAR. This WAR pattern won't really show up for the second half of the month, so therefore August is the only true summer month left with similar sun angle of June. August could feature heat, but if the WAR decides to stay towards Bermuda, then forget about a 95F+ day ever showing up for the rest of the summer.

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In summer if it's not cloudy and raining it almost always manages to go above normal, even by a couple degrees, and that's against the 1980-2010 climate block, the warmest one on record.

Not to say we don't have a few days here and there that manage to be sunny AND below normal temp wise, but it's definitely the exception rather than the rule.

And Texas July temps have been declining since 1895...thats weather for you.

Hottest temp ever recorded in NYC -  July 9, 1936 - 106 degrees.

Since 1870, there have been a total of 58 days when the temperature reached 100 degrees or more in NYC. The decade with the most 100 degree days is the 1950s. During the 1950s, there were 12 days when the temperature reached 100 or more degrees.

Most cities have doubled or tripled population in the last 60 plus years with buildings, concrete, airports, cars, etc...

and lousy siting of thermometers. Imagine the heat of those days around TODAY... it would be far far worse and would easily surpass those records by a long shot. 

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And Texas July temps have been declining since 1895...thats weather for you.

Hottest temp ever recorded in NYC - July 9, 1936 - 106 degrees.

Since 1870, there have been a total of 58 days when the temperature reached 100 degrees or more in NYC. The decade with the most 100 degree days is the 1950s. During the 1950s, there were 12 days when the temperature reached 100 or more degrees.

Most cities have doubled or tripled population in the last 60 plus years with buildings, concrete, airports, cars, etc...

and lousy siting of thermometers. Imagine the heat of those days around TODAY... it would be far far worse and would easily surpass those records by a long shot.

Yea i think the heat island is mostly the reasons for higher min temps....that also helps warm up the ocean near the coast.

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Yea i think the heat island is mostly the reasons for higher min temps....that also helps warm up the ocean near the coast.

 

Fortunately, the hottest temp in NYC occurred during the Dust Bowl era, where extreme heat and drought occurred in the plains, where most our extreme heat waves originate so one could expect to have a 100+ degree day. There was a decent drought in the plains during the 1950's as well, which may explain the numerous 100+ days during that decade.

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And Texas July temps have been declining since 1895...thats weather for you.

Hottest temp ever recorded in NYC -  July 9, 1936 - 106 degrees.

Since 1870, there have been a total of 58 days when the temperature reached 100 degrees or more in NYC. The decade with the most 100 degree days is the 1950s. During the 1950s, there were 12 days when the temperature reached 100 or more degrees.

Most cities have doubled or tripled population in the last 60 plus years with buildings, concrete, airports, cars, etc...

and lousy siting of thermometers. Imagine the heat of those days around TODAY... it would be far far worse and would easily surpass those records by a long shot. 

 

That's mostly the increased vegetation around the NYC ASOS. Take a look at the 100 degree days at Newark

since the 90's compared to the 50's and 60's.

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And Texas July temps have been declining since 1895...thats weather for you.

Hottest temp ever recorded in NYC - July 9, 1936 - 106 degrees.

Since 1870, there have been a total of 58 days when the temperature reached 100 degrees or more in NYC. The decade with the most 100 degree days is the 1950s. During the 1950s, there were 12 days when the temperature reached 100 or more degrees.

Most cities have doubled or tripled population in the last 60 plus years with buildings, concrete, airports, cars, etc...

and lousy siting of thermometers. Imagine the heat of those days around TODAY... it would be far far worse and would easily surpass those records by a long shot.

When you already start at very high temps as averages like they have in Texas I wouldn't expect a linear rise forever and ever. There are other factors that may influence overall climate. Most regions however, whether rural or urban, have been rising slowly but steadily.

NYC btw and the surrounding areas have been basically the same since 1970. Development skyrocketed after WW2 and topped off by the end of the 1960s. Aerial photographs confirm this. So we've had 43 years with very little change in the urban landscape. Yet temperatures continue to rise.

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Yea i think the heat island is mostly the reasons for higher min temps....that also helps warm up the ocean near the coast.

 

The UHI in the city hasn't changed much in a while, so the higher summer mins are mostly a result of the elevated  dewpoints

which is helped by the record warm SST's and increased moisture.

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Today could be the hottest day of the summer. That's mainly due to the high sun angle + WAR. This WAR pattern won't really show up for the second half of the month, so therefore August is the only true summer month left with similar sun angle of June. August could feature heat, but if the WAR decides to stay towards Bermuda, then forget about a 95F+ day ever showing up for the rest of the summer.

 

The latest guidance has been consistent with rebuilding the WAR after the trough liftt out by next weekend (7/14).   There will be more southerly and some potential SE flow for a bit but it looks similar to the past progression where some more heat on/around 7/15 after a break between 7/11 - 7/14

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