tmagan Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 A bit off topic, but an era came to an end yesterday when Channel 9 canceled its newscast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 A bit off topic, but an era came to an end yesterday when Channel 9 canceled its newscast. I think they were down to just 5 30 minute telecasts per week so its not a huge shock. I've met Brenda Blackmon and she's a very nice person. She should have no problem landing somewhere else. She's very involved with Lupus as her daughter suffers from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 The retrogression of the Western ridge will allow more s/w troughs to amplify into the Northeast once to days 6-10 and beyond. Additionally, MJO wave propagation into phase 2 will get the ball rolling for increased troughiness in the Eastern US. I think we're back to near normal values mid July and could see occasional shots of cooler than normal air in the July 15th-30th period. The biggest heat looks to occur the next 3-6 days, and really it isn't all that impressive in terms of daily maximum temperatures, compared to the past 3 summers. Most folks will top out in the lower 90s but the usual hot spots like LGA and EWR could hit 95 again during this warm stretch. The cooling of mid and late July should do its dirty work in erasing the positives of the first couple weeks IMO. At the very least, we should see a break in the tropical like humidity by D 7-10+.How does precip look for the rest of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 4, 2013 Author Share Posted July 4, 2013 How does precip look for the rest of the month? Numerous opportunities for convection from later Sunday through next week. The closed low will eject east by later Sunday into Monday with thunderstorm chances increasing. The WAR will flatten out some and allow a channel for storms to track through the area and limit the high temperature potential by a few degrees next week. Once the front comes through later next week, it should stall out near the coast as the ridge to the east will be too strong to allow things to clear out. I think NYC has a shot at the third consecutive month with over 5.00" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Numerous opportunities for convection from later Sunday through next week. The closed low will eject east by later Sunday into Monday with thunderstorm chances increasing. The WAR will flatten out some and allow a channel for storms to track through the area and limit the high temperature potential by a few degrees next week. Once the front comes through later next week, it should stall out near the coast as the ridge to the east will be too strong to allow things to clear out. I think NYC has a shot at the third consecutive month with over 5.00" of rain. gfsUS_500_avort_090.gif Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif Are you expecting events through the rest of the month that will require issuance of FW/FFW, or more scattered convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 4, 2013 Author Share Posted July 4, 2013 Are you expecting events through the rest of the month that will require issuance of FW/FFW, or more scattered convection? It's tough to get specific on long range rainfall forecasts, but the CFS and Euro weeklies are above normal for the month of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Most stations made it to and above 90 today: Linden 92, EWR 91, LGA 91, Staten Island 91, TEB 90, but Cental Park only managed 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 The GFS has been hinting at a large-scale trough moving into the east just before mid-month. That might be the best opportunity for more widespread severe as well as lower dews. 18z had the 10C contour back near the area at Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 The Euro and ens underestimated how strong the WAR would develop this week from 240 hrs out. So I think the NAEFS probably have the right idea of above normal weekly mean temperatures continuing through the 20th, with probably less above normal than we are experiencing this week. It will probably mean that NYC will finish July at around +2 or greater. Even if daily highs are limited due to convection, warm overnight mins with keep daily means above normal. Forecast Verification NAEFS warm but less above normal than this coming week. Old NAEFS forecast for heat the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 hello from Florida...We had three storms yesterday adding up to 2"...1.5" in one storm around 5pm...more storms to come today...Exciting weather for a change down here... So far NYC has 13 consecutive days with a minimum 70 or higher...No end in sight for that streak...22 days is the record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 hello from Florida...We had three storms yesterday adding up to 2"...1.5" in one storm around 5pm...more storms to come today...Exciting weather for a change down here... So far NYC has 13 consecutive days with a minimum 70 or higher...No end in sight for that streak...22 days is the record... Good to see that you are getting a nice FL vacation. It really looks like this direct tropical flow around the ridge to the east will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 hello from Florida...We had three storms yesterday adding up to 2"...1.5" in one storm around 5pm...more storms to come today...Exciting weather for a change down here... So far NYC has 13 consecutive days with a minimum 70 or higher...No end in sight for that streak...22 days is the record... So it's similar to the past Julys but with less extreme highs and warmer mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 So it's similar to the past Julys but with less extreme highs and warmer mins. Yeah, the biggest part of the daily departure yesterday was the min. WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL..................................................................TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 87 313 PM 102 1949 84 3 92 MINIMUM 75 608 AM 55 1986 68 7 70 AVERAGE 81 76 5 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Sitting on the beach in OC Md with a low cloud deck hanging what seems to be 1000 feet offshore but bright sun here. Pretty awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 The Euro and ens underestimated how strong the WAR would develop this week from 240 hrs out. So I think the NAEFS probably have the right idea of above normal weekly mean temperatures continuing through the 20th, with probably less above normal than we are experiencing this week. It will probably mean that NYC will finish July at around +2 or greater. Even if daily highs are limited due to convection, warm overnight mins with keep daily means above normal. Forecast Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif Verification Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_0.gif NAEFS warm but less above normal than this coming week. 2013070500_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Old NAEFS forecast for heat the next week 2013062700_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png If we get a little temporary relief from the high heat and humidity, I think it will be just that, little, and temporary! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Sitting on the beach in OC Md with a low cloud deck hanging what seems to be 1000 feet offshore but bright sun here. Pretty awesome Cool, Any pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 It feels disgusting outside, I honestly don't see how anyone can enjoy this kind of weather unless you're by the pool or beach. The constant dews in the 70s is beyond annoying and humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 It feels disgusting outside, I honestly don't see how anyone can enjoy this kind of weather unless you're by the pool or beach. The constant dews in the 70s is beyond annoying and humid. I agree. It's beyond awful outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 It feels disgusting outside, I honestly don't see how anyone can enjoy this kind of weather unless you're by the pool or beach. The constant dews in the 70s is beyond annoying and humid. Yeah it feels like savannah or NOLA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 WAAAHHHH IT'S HOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 In my current location I'm right now at 88 with a projected high tomorrow of 90 and an excessive heat warning, did someone forget to tell them it's july and this has been the norm the last few years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 The GFS has been hinting at a large-scale trough moving into the east just before mid-month. That might be the best opportunity for more widespread severe as well as lower dews. 18z had the 10C contour back near the area at Day 7. The long range variance in the GFS runs seems to originate in the West Pacific and ultimately the tropical forcing in the SW Pacific. GFS and ECMWF are still at odds with regards to future MJO propagation as the former takes it back into phase 1 while the Euro guidance is more bullish on pushing it through phase 2. This will have implications on the West Pacific pattern and thus the downstream US pattern. The 00z GFS was aggressive w/ Eastern US troughiness in the medium to long range but the 12z GFS balloons the West Atlantic Ridge westward again in the D10+ period. I think we're liable to see cooling via the short wave later next week, and things get more fuzzy thereafter, but near normal temp regime looks reasonable w/ some shots of cool. We're going to have more shots of cool into the Lakes beginning next week through late month IMO, keeping the heat relatively unimpressive in the Northeast. High dew points will wax and wane throughout the month and the big story of this summer is the humidity, not the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 In my current location I'm right now at 88 with a projected high tomorrow of 90 and an excessive heat warning, did someone forget to tell them it's july and this has been the norm the last few years! Yeah, I don't even know why they have excessive heat warnings anymore, given excessive heat is the norm in our new climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Yeah, I don't even know why they have excessive heat warnings anymore, given excessive heat is the norm in our new climate. Unfortunately we're becoming used to this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 Unfortunately we're becoming used to this! It looks like they lowered the criteria this year for a heat advisory from a HX of 100-104 last year to 95-100 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 It looks like they lowered the criteria this year for a heat advisory from a HX of 100-104 last year to 95-100 this year. http://ow.ly/i/2xtJahttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/wwa_definitions_new.html Excessive Heat Warning Issued when heat index values are forecast to reach or exceed 105°F for at least 2 consecutive hours. Heat Advisory Issued when maximum daytime heat index values are forecast to reach 100 to 104°F for at least 2 consecutive hours. NOTE: For New York City, a Heat Advisory is issued when the heat index is forecast to reach 95 to 99F for at least 2 consecutive days or 100 to 104F for any length of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Yeah, I don't even know why they have excessive heat warnings anymore, given excessive heat is the norm in our new climate. What new climate is that? Climatologically this is very close to the hottest part of the calendar year, so I see nothing out of the ordinary about a few very warm days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 1AM temps NYC: 83 LGA: 85 EWR: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 93 degree highs here thurs. and friday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 It feels disgusting outside, I honestly don't see how anyone can enjoy this kind of weather unless you're by the pool or beach. The constant dews in the 70s is beyond annoying and humid. This is the kind of weather I enjoy, I find it comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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