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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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I wonder what the streak is for most days without dropping below 70 degrees? Today is day 11 and I'd imagine we have a ways to go but there's no cooldowns in sight. Probably at least another 7-8 days

 

July 2010 had 22 straight days in a row without dropping below 70 in the city:

 

ac4zew.jpg

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I wonder what the streak is for most days without dropping below 70 degrees? Today is day 11 and I'd imagine we have a ways to go but there's no cooldowns in sight. Probably at least another 7-8 days

 

Incidentally, if we do it in this pattern, it'll likely happen without reaching 100, as it had in 2010.

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GFS keeps the core of the heat ridge shunted to our SW, as the NW-SE flow in Canada continues. Upper 90's/low 100's might be a reach for a while. It's still going to be hot though with low 90's in the forecast for the next week atleast

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GFS keeps the core of the heat ridge shunted to our SW, as the NW-SE flow in Canada continues. Upper 90's/low 100's might be a reach for a while. It's still going to be hot though with low 90's in the forecast for the next week atleast

 

Well our best chance to reach those high numbers with regards to climatology would be until early August and so far it doesn't seem likely. 

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The pattern is going to get stormy again by later Sunday or Monday. The closed low over the

Midwest and Ohio Valley will finally open up and eject to the east with increasing chances

of thunderstorms. This will act to flatten the WAR to some extent and open a channel

for storms to move form west to east across the area. Next week will probably feature

daily temps quickly warming above 90 with areas of thunderstorms and debris clouds

limiting maximum temperature potential from what it would be with full sun.

 

 

 

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GFS still advertising that the heat breaks around next Friday with a near or possibly below normal stretch coming up through the 20th. Probably still going to be low to mid 80s but I'll just be happy when this humidity goes away

 

The Euro weeklies are hinting that July 1-15 will be warmer than 16-31. The NAEFS have our temperatures returning

closer to normal toward mid month.

 

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The retrogression of the Western ridge will allow more s/w troughs to amplify into the Northeast once to days 6-10 and beyond. Additionally, MJO wave propagation into phase 2 will get the ball rolling for increased troughiness in the Eastern US. I think we're back to near normal values mid July and could see occasional shots of cooler than normal air in the July 15th-30th period. The biggest heat looks to occur the next 3-6 days, and really it isn't all that impressive in terms of daily maximum temperatures, compared to the past 3 summers. Most folks will top out in the lower 90s but the usual hot spots like LGA and EWR could hit 95 again during this warm stretch. The cooling of mid and late July should do its dirty work in erasing the positives of the first couple weeks IMO. At the very least, we should see a break in the tropical like humidity by D 7-10+.

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