Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The NAEFS which had earlier been on the warm train for the Northeast have now trended toward the other guidance w/ a normal to below normal temp regime to the coast. I still think its a bit too bullish on the WAR for the New England coast. The ECMWF ensembles certainly led the way with this pattern reversal to troughiness in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 It's beautiful out. 76 degrees with low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I know the long range looks cool but does it also look rainy/stormy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Cooldown NYC: 7/24: 83/68 (-1) 7/25: 68/64 (-11) 7/26: 83/65 (-3) 7/27: 82/70 (-1) 7/28: 73/69 (-6) 7/29: 85/69 (0) 7/30: 7/31: EWR: 7/24: 84/68 (-2) 7/25: 68/62 (-12) 7/26: 85/66 (-2) 7/27: 84/67 (-2) 7/28: 80/69 (-2) 7/29: 87/70 (+2) 7/30: 7/31: LGA: 7/24: 83/69 (-2) 7/25: 70/64 (-11) 7/26: 84/65 (-3) 7/27: 84/71 (0) 7/28: 82/71 (-1) 7/29: 89/71 (+2) 7/30: 7/31: JFK: 7/24: 88/70 (+3) 7/25: 70/63 (-9) 7/26: 84/64 (-2) 7/27: 81/68 (-1) 7/28: 78/68 (-3) 7/29: 84/73 (+2) 7/30: 7/31: New brunswick: 7/24: 83/64 (-2) 7/25: 69/64 (-9) 7/26: 84/65 (0) 7/27: 86/64 (0) 7/28: 84/64 (-1) 7/29: 87/62 (+0) 7/30: 7/31: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Yesterday was a 0.0 Today looks like a -2 or -3 Tomorrow similar. That should leave NYC at about +3.1 to +3.3 for the month of July. The park running abuot 1/2 a degree behind other sites. NYC: +3.4 LGA: +4.2 EWR: +4.0 JFK: +3.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The NAEFS which had earlier been on the warm train for the Northeast have now trended toward the other guidance w/ a normal to below normal temp regime to the coast. I still think its a bit too bullish on the WAR for the New England coast. The ECMWF ensembles certainly led the way with this pattern reversal to troughiness in the Northeast. Iso, good call with the late July/early august cooldown. I had thought we'd ride closer to normal/above normal similar to yesterday. Certainly the repetition since Jun 20th of the WAR expansion broke last week and the timing between western Atlantic ridging has been prolonged. It will be interesting to see how cool we get through the first 10 days of August. I do think there is continued hinting and trends in the latest guidance that trough backs into the lakes and a more humid/southerly flow develops between 8th and 10th. Whether this actually materializes and how long it persists before we see more of the WAR toward mid/end of the month will determine how August avaerages overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Man the next two weeks are going to be September like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Man the next two weeks are going to be September like! no just normal but feels like September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Man the next two weeks are going to be September like! I wouldn't go that far unless you mean very early September like Labor Day time. It's probably just going to end up near normal for this time of year, maybe slightly below for a couple days. Either way this feels like a dream compared to 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I wouldn't go that far unless you mean very early September like Labor Day time. It's probably just going to end up near normal for this time of year, maybe slightly below for a couple days. Either way this feels like a dream compared to 10 days ago. Not to often do we get weather like this, during this time of the year. Lately it has been a torch the last few years. Going to be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 no just normal but feels like September Average and normal are two different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 First 90 degree shut out for Newark 8-1 to 8-7 since 2004 in forecast. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-7599C5EC-B577-402B-A8BF-A53FB646A345.pdf NEWARK, NJSUNNY SUNNY TSTRMS PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY/84 66/84 69/82 70/85 70/84 68/83 67/81/00 00/10 10/60 70/20 10/10 10/20 10/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 78/58 right now midday in late July. Feels like Labor Day weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Iso, good call with the late July/early august cooldown. I had thought we'd ride closer to normal/above normal similar to yesterday. Certainly the repetition since Jun 20th of the WAR expansion broke last week and the timing between western Atlantic ridging has been prolonged. It will be interesting to see how cool we get through the first 10 days of August. I do think there is continued hinting and trends in the latest guidance that trough backs into the lakes and a more humid/southerly flow develops between 8th and 10th. Whether this actually materializes and how long it persists before we see more of the WAR toward mid/end of the month will determine how August avaerages overall. Thanks man. You were on fire with the early/mid July pattern. I agree that the WAR will eventually retrograde back into the picture. My thinking at this point is we'll start the transition by the middle/latter part of August w/ a warmer than normal regime resuming possibly the last 1/3 of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 78/58 right now midday in late July. Feels like Labor Day weather. West coast weather today. Very nice out there enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 First 90 degree shut out for Newark 8-1 to 8-7 since 2004 in forecast. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-7599C5EC-B577-402B-A8BF-A53FB646A345.pdf NEWARK, NJ SUNNY SUNNY TSTRMS PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY /84 66/84 69/82 70/85 70/84 68/83 67/81 /00 00/10 10/60 70/20 10/10 10/20 10/10 M7D8.gif temp.gif this pattern is very reminiscent of 1994.. very warm July followed by a cool beginning of August.. IIRC, very chilly morning of 8/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 this pattern is very reminiscent of 1994.. very warm July followed by a cool beginning of August.. IIRC, very chilly morning of 8/7 yeah I remember being down in Wildwood with temps in the 50's and sitting under a blanket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 gfs and nam both agree on a period of heavy rain later Thursday even though the euro went dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 this pattern is very reminiscent of 1994.. very warm July followed by a cool beginning of August.. IIRC, very chilly morning of 8/7 Yeah, the WAR shifted to the east that August like the current forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 gfs and nam both agree on a period of heavy rain later Thursday even though the euro went dry 12z euro has the rain but a few hours later and more into night time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles means, have actually been backing off the extent of the trough over the Northeast, in the 8-10 day period. The cool, dry air mass around Aug. 5th is more transient. With a big ULL digging into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. If this is correct, it could turn warmer, humid and unsettled again around the Aug 8th or so.: Looks like 12z went back to a prolonged troughy period again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Looks like 12z went back to a prolonged troughs period again. How much rain this week for KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 How much rain this week for KMMU? about 2/3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Looks like 12z went back to a prolonged troughy period again. Not surprisingly, the ESRL forecasts -NAO/+PNA/-EPO patterns through Aug. 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The cooler to seasonable airmass could last a while even if models show it breaking down in the long range. Models often do that Day 8-10 and patterns usually take longer to change. I wouldn't be surprised if the cooler pattern lasts a good 2/3 of August and I certainly don't expect to see anything near as hot as in mid July moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The cooler to seasonable airmass could last a while even if models show it breaking down in the long range. Models often do that Day 8-10 and patterns usually take longer to change. I wouldn't be surprised if the cooler pattern lasts a good 2/3 of August and I certainly don't expect to see anything near as hot as in mid July moving forward. Agree. I don't think we'll see a transition until 8/15-20 at the earliest and by that point the pattern will probably be more humid than hot. Long duration 90s are likely over for the summer IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 This july here will finish up cooler than 1999, 2010 and 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 This july here will finish up cooler than 1999, 2010 and 2011. Past couple of nights at 58F / days low 80s have knocked me down to +2.5 on the month here. I was up to +4.2 at one point a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 KFRG sounding indicates not much in the way of severe weather tomorrow with the indication of the tall/skinny cape look to the sounding suggest mostly heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 KFRG sounding indicates not much in the way of severe weather tomorrow with the indication of the tall/skinny cape look to the sounding suggest mostly heavy rainfall. The PW's have been among the highest that we have seen for July in the Northeast with record rainfall in places like Philly and Eastern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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