GiantBlizzard2003 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 It has been a very dry July right along the South Shore. Gilgo Beach has only picked up 1.14" and Bellmore 1.45". http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYGILGO1&day=29&year=2013&month=7&graphspan=month http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYBELLM2&day=29&year=2013&month=7&graphspan=month Yeah but there was almost 4.50" and 7.99" in June at those two locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Yeah but there was almost 4.50" and 7.99" in June at those two locations. It was a very wet early June, but the vegetation has dried out to some extent this month along the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Im really pissed off by the NWS drought monitor having the South Shore of Long Island in a no drought color. We had zilch zero rain yesterday!!!!! In the last 2 months we have had less then 2 inches!!! During maximum solar inclination and the heat of 2 weeks ago that equals extremly low soil moisture. Granted we got dumped on in May but trees here are now dropping leaves... I have seen this before (in the late 90's and again mid 2000's) It has something to due with the seabreeze but the true cause is a combination of things and really some bad luck on days like yesterday... Any of the other South Shore guys feeling this? Drier than normal is likely the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Drier than normal is likely the new normal. If you take the average of the last 3 months it is likely near normal. If the trend of drier continues into August then the NWS will likely mark the area abnormally dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Even NYC (the park) has only received 2.84 in the bucket this month. And if you go back less than an inch between Jun 15 and Jul 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Updating with 7/28 Cooldown NYC: 7/24: 83/68 (-1) 7/25: 68/64 (-11) 7/26: 83/65 (-3) 7/27: 82/70 (-1) 7/28: 78/70 (-3) 7/29: 7/30: 7/31: EWR: 7/24: 84/68 (-2) 7/25: 68/62 (-12) 7/26: 85/66 (-2) 7/27: 84/67 (-2) 7/28: 80/69 (-2) 7/29: 7/30: 7/31: LGA: 7/24: 83/69 (-2) 7/25: 70/64 (-11) 7/26: 84/65 (-3) 7/27: 84/71 (0) 7/28: 82/71 (-1) 7/29: 7/30: 7/31: JFK: 7/24: 88/70 (+3) 7/25: 70/63 (-9) 7/26: 84/64 (-2) 7/27: 81/68 (-1) 7/28: 78/68 (-3) 7/29: 7/30: 7/31: New brunswick: 7/24: 83/64 (-2) 7/25: 69/64 (-9) 7/26: 84/65 (0) 7/27: 86/64 (0) 7/28: 84/64 (-1) 7/29: 7/30: 7/31: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 We are also off to a slow start for severe reports across the region. I was able to find annual stats for NJ going back to 2002. We still have time to bump the number to over 100 on the year. It's hard to find specific info for NYC and LI and NNJ post 2006. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/rda/OKX.html Total NJ severe reports 2013...46...so far 2012...178 2011...172 2010...105 2009...147 2008...207 2007..136 2006..157 2005..109 2004..107 2003..144 2002..175 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Updating with 7/28 Cooldown NYC: 7/24: 83/68 (-1) 7/25: 68/64 (-11) 7/26: 83/65 (-3) 7/27: 82/70 (-1) 7/28: 73/69 (-6) 7/29: 7/30: 7/31: EWR: 7/24: 84/68 (-2) 7/25: 68/62 (-12) 7/26: 85/66 (-2) 7/27: 84/67 (-2) 7/28: 80/69 (-2) 7/29: 7/30: 7/31: LGA: 7/24: 83/69 (-2) 7/25: 70/64 (-11) 7/26: 84/65 (-3) 7/27: 84/71 (0) 7/28: 82/71 (-1) 7/29: 7/30: 7/31: JFK: 7/24: 88/70 (+3) 7/25: 70/63 (-9) 7/26: 84/64 (-2) 7/27: 81/68 (-1) 7/28: 78/68 (-3) 7/29: 7/30: 7/31: New brunswick: 7/24: 83/64 (-2) 7/25: 69/64 (-9) 7/26: 84/65 (0) 7/27: 86/64 (0) 7/28: 84/64 (-1) 7/29: 7/30: 7/31: I believe NYC was a 78/70 yesterday and a -3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I believe NYC was a 78/70 yesterday and a -3. Thanks, Ag3. Youre right. I will edit the initial post. I got the NY #'s from accuweather. NJ are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sutherlandfan Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Latest ECMWF ensembles for the first week of August have the mean trough in the Northeast. Recall a week ago when the GFS ensembles were insistent on the WAR resisting the trough in the Northeast. However, the GFS guidance has since trended toward the ECMWF ensembles which have always had the further east displaced WAR for the July 25th-August 5th period. What happens after the first week of August is up for debate, but given pattern persistence, lack of strong global signaling, and stable SSTA pattern in the Atlantic, it is very possible that the high humidity returns for later in August into September as I mentioned. Although there are subtle indications of the ridge retrogression by August 10th, I think that's probably rushing it too much as usually tends to be the case. We may see a situation where the pattern resets at 3-4 weeks intervals. We were cool late May-late June, hot/humid June 20-July 20, we'll probably be normal to below for the next 3 weeks at least, then August 20-Sept 20 could be very warm. Interesting, any changes in this forecast with the cooler changes that came in over the weekend? Appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 What are the departures to date? Looks like our high heat is over for the summer thank god. Let the dog days start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 The only thing I hate more than high heat and humidity is high heat and humidity in September. I'd rather have every day in July and August roast than have a way above average September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 The only thing I hate more than high heat and humidity is high heat and humidity in September. I'd rather have every day in July and August roast than have a way above average September. Yeah I hate hot septembers too. Today's another gorgeous day. Doesn't feel anywhere near the mid 80s with the lowering dewpoints and breeze. Looks like 2 more days of this and a couple nice sleeping weather nights before a wet Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 i want forkyfork to hump this euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 The CFS has August as the coolest month of summer relative to the means here so far. It did a very nice job with the July pattern. August Forecast July forecast verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 What are the departures to date? Looks like our high heat is over for the summer thank god. Let the dog days start Between +3.5 and 4(ish). Today looks like it will be in positive territory and then perhaps at normal tomorrow and wed. Should see the month end in the +3 to +4 range. Hotter than 2012 and just a bit off the 10/11 monthly departures.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 The CFS has August as the coolest month of summer relative to the means here so far. It did a very nice job with the July pattern. August Forecast CFSv2.NaT2m.20130729.201308.jpg July forecast JULY.jpg verification MonthTDeptUS.png When was that July forecast issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 When was that July forecast issued? June 25th, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Im really pissed off by the NWS drought monitor having the South Shore of Long Island in a no drought color. We had zilch zero rain yesterday!!!!! In the last 2 months we have had less then 2 inches!!! During maximum solar inclination and the heat of 2 weeks ago that equals extremly low soil moisture. Granted we got dumped on in May but trees here are now dropping leaves... I have seen this before (in the late 90's and again mid 2000's) It has something to due with the seabreeze but the true cause is a combination of things and really some bad luck on days like yesterday... Any of the other South Shore guys feeling this? Reasonably wet back to back months on the North Shore...Mt Sinai / Port Jeff cooperative with 6.38" of rain for July to date & 9.57" during June. As far as the lack of rain on the South Shore...the ocean has a very stabilizing effect on the atmosphere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 today's highs TEB: 87 NYC: 85 EWR: 87 LGA: 89 JFK: 84 ISP: 84 New Brunswick: 87 TTN: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The CFS has August as the coolest month of summer relative to the means here so far. It did a very nice job with the July pattern. August Forecast CFSv2.NaT2m.20130729.201308.jpg July forecast JULY.jpg verification MonthTDeptUS.png And Joe B just tweeted that the Euro shows a top 5 coldest August in the last 30 years for the nation. Only a small area in Texas is above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Interesting, any changes in this forecast with the cooler changes that came in over the weekend? Appreciate it. If anything, the trough is progged even stronger than it was several days ago for the Northeast. Both the ECMWF and GFS are in fairly good consensus on the mean trough axis generally meandering around the Great Lakes/Interior Northeast over the next 7-10 days. The NAO modality switch from positive to slightly negative has caused the West Atlantic Ridge to weaken and extend northward towards Greenland, thereby allowing lower heights southeastward into our area. The troughiness in the Northeast looks to continue for the forseeable future, with most days near or below normal temp wise through mid August. At this juncture, I would be shocked if August finishes warmer than average in NYC. Boston has the best shot at a warmer than normal August if the West Atlantic Ridge can begin retrograding westward in time to pump anomalies. However, I think if that occurs it probably won't happen until after the 20th of August. Latest 6-10 day ECMWF ensembles H5 anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The only thing I hate more than high heat and humidity is high heat and humidity in September. I'd rather have every day in July and August roast than have a way above average September. Unfortunately that former scenario looks possible this year. I would expect the pattern to repeat down the road with a retrogession of the Atlantic ridge by late August into September. There's a chance we continue w/ the mean trough in the Northeast for September, but usually in these regimes, we bring the trough axis back into the Mid-west for September w/ a warm and humid flow up the East Coast. If this occurs it would also mean an increased probability for TC impacts along the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 If anything, the trough is progged even stronger than it was several days ago for the Northeast. Both the ECMWF and GFS are in fairly good consensus on the mean trough axis generally meandering around the Great Lakes/Interior Northeast over the next 7-10 days. The NAO modality switch from positive to slightly negative has caused the West Atlantic Ridge to weaken and extend northward towards Greenland, thereby allowing lower heights southeastward into our area. The troughiness in the Northeast looks to continue for the forseeable future, with most days near or below normal temp wise through mid August. At this juncture, I would be shocked if August finishes warmer than average in NYC. Boston has the best shot at a warmer than normal August if the West Atlantic Ridge can begin retrograding westward in time to pump anomalies. However, I think if that occurs it probably won't happen until after the 20th of August. Latest 6-10 day ECMWF ensembles H5 anomaly Nice to see the 576dm contour clear the area with the vortex situated just to the north. This is definitely a good set-up for below normal temperatures, and particularly dry weather with cool nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles means, have actually been backing off the extent of the trough over the Northeast, in the 8-10 day period. The cool, dry air mass around Aug. 5th is more transient. With a big ULL digging into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. If this is correct, it could turn warmer, humid and unsettled again around the Aug 8th or so.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles means, have actually been backing off the extent of the trough over the Northeast, in the 8-10 day period. The cool, dry air mass around Aug. 5th is more transient. With a big ULL digging into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. If this is correct, it could turn warmer, humid and unsettled again around the Aug 8th or so.: The GFS would be warmer but the ECMWF has heights near 576dm throughout the D7-10 period which is normal to below normal for NYC. Even heights of 582dm as the GFS indicates would not be warmer than normal temps at this time of year, probably mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Nice to see the 576dm contour clear the area with the vortex situated just to the north. This is definitely a good set-up for below normal temperatures, and particularly dry weather with cool nights. Agreed. 58.1F this morning here. Lowest temp for July. The Euro weeklies are fairly widespread with the cool across the Mid-west and Northeast through much of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The GFS would be warmer but the ECMWF has heights near 576dm throughout the D7-10 period which is normal to below normal for NYC. Even heights of 582dm as the GFS indicates would not be warmer than normal temps at this time of year, probably mid 80s. I don't see big heat yet. But I think there's more uncertainly, on how long we are cooler than normal, without some clouds and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Between +3.5 and 4(ish). Today looks like it will be in positive territory and then perhaps at normal tomorrow and wed. Should see the month end in the +3 to +4 range. Hotter than 2012 and just a bit off the 10/11 monthly departures.. Yesterday was a 0.0 Today looks like a -2 or -3 Tomorrow similar. That should leave NYC at about +3.1 to +3.3 for the month of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 The first significant NAO drop since early April will help keep the mean trough position located in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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