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July 2013 Observations and Discussions

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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GiantBlizzard2003

GiantBlizzard2003

Posted
Posted

Yeah but there was almost 4.50" and 7.99" in June at those two locations.

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mupawxnut

mupawxnut

Posted
Posted

Im really pissed off by the NWS drought monitor having the South Shore of Long Island in a no drought color.

We had zilch zero rain yesterday!!!!! In the last 2 months we have had less then 2 inches!!! During maximum solar inclination and the heat of 2 weeks ago that equals extremly low soil moisture. Granted we got dumped on in May but trees here are now dropping leaves...

I have seen this before (in the late 90's and again mid 2000's) It has something to due with the seabreeze but the true cause is a combination of things and really some bad luck on days like yesterday...

Any of the other South Shore guys feeling this?

Drier than normal is likely the new normal.
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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Updating with 7/28

 

Cooldown

 

 

NYC:

7/24: 83/68 (-1)

7/25: 68/64 (-11)

7/26: 83/65 (-3)

7/27:  82/70 (-1)

7/28: 78/70 (-3)

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

EWR:

7/24: 84/68 (-2)

7/25: 68/62 (-12)

7/26: 85/66 (-2)

7/27: 84/67 (-2)

7/28: 80/69 (-2)

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

LGA:

7/24: 83/69 (-2)

7/25: 70/64 (-11)

7/26: 84/65 (-3)

7/27: 84/71 (0)

7/28: 82/71 (-1)

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

JFK:

7/24: 88/70 (+3)

7/25: 70/63 (-9)

7/26: 84/64  (-2)

7/27: 81/68 (-1)

7/28: 78/68 (-3)

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

New brunswick:

7/24: 83/64 (-2)

7/25: 69/64 (-9)

7/26: 84/65 (0)

7/27: 86/64 (0)

7/28: 84/64 (-1)

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
  • Author
Posted

We are also off to a slow start for severe reports across the region. 

I was able to find annual stats for NJ going back to 2002. We still

have time to bump the number to over 100 on the year. It's hard

to find specific info for NYC and LI and NNJ post 2006.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/rda/OKX.html

 

Total NJ severe reports

 

2013...46...so far

2012...178

2011...172

2010...105

2009...147

2008...207

2007..136

2006..157

2005..109

2004..107

2003..144

2002..175

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Updating with 7/28

 

Cooldown

 

 

NYC:

7/24: 83/68 (-1)

7/25: 68/64 (-11)

7/26: 83/65 (-3)

7/27:  82/70 (-1)

7/28: 73/69 (-6)

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

EWR:

7/24: 84/68 (-2)

7/25: 68/62 (-12)

7/26: 85/66 (-2)

7/27: 84/67 (-2)

7/28: 80/69 (-2)

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

LGA:

7/24: 83/69 (-2)

7/25: 70/64 (-11)

7/26: 84/65 (-3)

7/27: 84/71 (0)

7/28: 82/71 (-1)

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

JFK:

7/24: 88/70 (+3)

7/25: 70/63 (-9)

7/26: 84/64  (-2)

7/27: 81/68 (-1)

7/28: 78/68 (-3)

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

New brunswick:

7/24: 83/64 (-2)

7/25: 69/64 (-9)

7/26: 84/65 (0)

7/27: 86/64 (0)

7/28: 84/64 (-1)

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

I believe NYC was a 78/70 yesterday and a -3.

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sutherlandfan

sutherlandfan

Posted
Posted

Latest ECMWF ensembles for the first week of August have the mean trough in the Northeast. Recall a week ago when the GFS ensembles were insistent on the WAR resisting the trough in the Northeast. However, the GFS guidance has since trended toward the ECMWF ensembles which have always had the further east displaced WAR for the July 25th-August 5th period. What happens after the first week of August is up for debate, but given pattern persistence, lack of strong global signaling, and stable SSTA pattern in the Atlantic, it is very possible that the high humidity returns for later in August into September as I mentioned. Although there are subtle indications of the ridge retrogression by August 10th, I think that's probably rushing it too much as usually tends to be the case. We may see a situation where the pattern resets at 3-4 weeks intervals. We were cool late May-late June, hot/humid June 20-July 20, we'll probably be normal to below for the next 3 weeks at least, then August 20-Sept 20 could be very warm.

 

2s81q81.png

Interesting, any changes in this forecast with the cooler changes that came in over the weekend?  Appreciate it. 

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

The only thing I hate more than high heat and humidity is high heat and humidity in September. I'd rather have every day in July and August roast than have a way above average September.

Yeah I hate hot septembers too.

Today's another gorgeous day. Doesn't feel anywhere near the mid 80s with the lowering dewpoints and breeze. Looks like 2 more days of this and a couple nice sleeping weather nights before a wet Thursday.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

What are the departures to date? Looks like our high heat is over for the summer thank god. Let the dog days start

 

 

Between +3.5 and 4(ish).  Today looks like it will be in positive territory and then perhaps at normal tomorrow and wed.  Should see the month end in the +3 to +4 range.   Hotter than 2012 and just a bit off the  10/11 monthly departures.. 

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Im really pissed off by the NWS drought monitor having the South Shore of Long Island in a no drought color.

 

We had zilch zero rain yesterday!!!!! In the last 2 months we have had less then 2 inches!!! During maximum solar inclination and the heat of 2 weeks ago that equals extremly low soil moisture. Granted we got dumped on in May but trees here are now dropping leaves...

 

 

 

I have seen this before (in the late 90's and again mid 2000's) It has something to due with the seabreeze but the true cause is a combination of things and really some bad luck on  days like yesterday...

 

 

Any of the other South Shore guys feeling this?

 

Reasonably wet back to back months on the North Shore...Mt Sinai / Port Jeff cooperative with 6.38" of rain for July to date & 9.57" during June.  As far as the lack of rain on the South Shore...the ocean has a very stabilizing effect on the atmosphere...

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NEXtreme

NEXtreme

Posted
Posted

The CFS has August as the coolest  month of summer relative to the means here so far. It did a very nice job with the July pattern.

 

August Forecast

 

attachicon.gifCFSv2.NaT2m.20130729.201308.jpg

 

July forecast

 

attachicon.gifJULY.jpg

 

verification

 

attachicon.gifMonthTDeptUS.png

And Joe B just tweeted that the Euro shows a top 5 coldest August in the last 30 years for the nation. Only a small area in Texas is above.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Interesting, any changes in this forecast with the cooler changes that came in over the weekend?  Appreciate it. 

 

 

If anything, the trough is progged even stronger than it was several days ago for the Northeast. Both the ECMWF and GFS are in fairly good consensus on the mean trough axis generally meandering around the Great Lakes/Interior Northeast over the next 7-10 days. The NAO modality switch from positive to slightly negative has caused the West Atlantic Ridge to weaken and extend northward towards Greenland, thereby allowing lower heights southeastward into our area. The troughiness in the Northeast looks to continue for the forseeable future, with most days near or below normal temp wise through mid August. At this juncture, I would be shocked if August finishes warmer than average in NYC. Boston has the best shot at a warmer than normal August if the West Atlantic Ridge can begin retrograding westward in time to pump anomalies. However, I think if that occurs it probably won't happen until after the 20th of August.

 

Latest 6-10 day ECMWF ensembles H5 anomaly

 

6fs9ht.png

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

The only thing I hate more than high heat and humidity is high heat and humidity in September. I'd rather have every day in July and August roast than have a way above average September.

 

 

Unfortunately that former scenario looks possible this year. I would expect the pattern to repeat down the road with a retrogession of the Atlantic ridge by late August into September. There's a chance we continue w/ the mean trough in the Northeast for September, but usually in these regimes, we bring the trough axis back into the Mid-west for September w/ a warm and humid flow up the East Coast. If this occurs it would also mean an increased probability for TC impacts along the East Coast.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

If anything, the trough is progged even stronger than it was several days ago for the Northeast. Both the ECMWF and GFS are in fairly good consensus on the mean trough axis generally meandering around the Great Lakes/Interior Northeast over the next 7-10 days. The NAO modality switch from positive to slightly negative has caused the West Atlantic Ridge to weaken and extend northward towards Greenland, thereby allowing lower heights southeastward into our area. The troughiness in the Northeast looks to continue for the forseeable future, with most days near or below normal temp wise through mid August. At this juncture, I would be shocked if August finishes warmer than average in NYC. Boston has the best shot at a warmer than normal August if the West Atlantic Ridge can begin retrograding westward in time to pump anomalies. However, I think if that occurs it probably won't happen until after the 20th of August.

 

Latest 6-10 day ECMWF ensembles H5 anomaly

 

 

Nice to see the 576dm contour clear the area with the vortex situated just to the north. This is definitely a good set-up for below normal temperatures, and particularly dry weather with cool nights. 

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

The GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles means, have actually been backing off the extent of the trough over the Northeast, in the 8-10 day period. The cool, dry air mass around Aug. 5th is more transient. With a big ULL digging into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. If this is correct, it could turn warmer, humid and unsettled again around the Aug 8th or so.:

 

2yn54rs.jpg

 

5fermb.jpg

 

2ephc3n.jpg

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

The GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles means, have actually been backing off the extent of the trough over the Northeast, in the 8-10 day period. The cool, dry air mass around Aug. 5th is more transient. With a big ULL digging into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. If this is correct, it could turn warmer, humid and unsettled again around the Aug 8th or so.:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The GFS would be warmer but the ECMWF has heights near 576dm throughout the D7-10 period which is normal to below normal for NYC. Even heights of 582dm as the GFS indicates would not be warmer than normal temps at this time of year, probably mid 80s.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Nice to see the 576dm contour clear the area with the vortex situated just to the north. This is definitely a good set-up for below normal temperatures, and particularly dry weather with cool nights. 

 

 

Agreed. 58.1F this morning here. Lowest temp for July. The Euro weeklies are fairly widespread with the cool across the Mid-west and Northeast through much of August.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

The GFS would be warmer but the ECMWF has heights near 576dm throughout the D7-10 period which is normal to below normal for NYC. Even heights of 582dm as the GFS indicates would not be warmer than normal temps at this time of year, probably mid 80s.

 

I don't see big heat yet. But I think there's more uncertainly, on how long we are cooler than normal, without some clouds and rain.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Between +3.5 and 4(ish).  Today looks like it will be in positive territory and then perhaps at normal tomorrow and wed.  Should see the month end in the +3 to +4 range.   Hotter than 2012 and just a bit off the  10/11 monthly departures.. 

 

 

Yesterday was a 0.0

Today looks like a -2 or -3

Tomorrow similar.

That should leave NYC at about +3.1 to +3.3 for the month of July.

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