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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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That's amazing that with all of the heat and very high dews that we managed to squeeze in such a cool day yesterday (even somewhat record breaking). It's sort of like an oasis in a desert.

 

It happened last year too where the temps were lower in the day in much of the metro area but had warmer split from early morning temps 7/20/2012.  This year we had virtually no rain in the city and metro NJ/C-NJ.   

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So when was the last time CPK recorded a temperature of 66 at 3PM in July?

Basically during the afternoon hours.

 

Last July was cooler during the afternoon and 3 degrees cooler than the low yesterday.

 

7-20-12...

 

3:00 PM 61.0 °F 61.0 °F 100% 30.07 in 2.5 mi ENE 6.9 mph 18.4 mph 0.02 in Rain

Light Rain

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2012/7/20/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

The coolest departures will again be to our west.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=96217&source=0

 

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81/60 day here, very September like. Gorgeous. Will put up solid negatives to close July.          

 

Agree, today has a nice September feel to it, air is dry, temps are cool, light winds, sound of a few crickets, absolutely spectacular. High of 78 here.

 

Currently 74/65

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Tracking the cool down so far.  We'll see how much negative we can get the next 7 days. 

 

NYC:

7/24: 83/68 (-1)

7/25: 68/64 (-11)

7/26: 83/65 (-3)

7/27:

7/28:

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

EWR:

7/24: 84/68 (-2)

7/25: 68/62 (-12)

7/26: 85/66 (-2)

7/27:

7/28:

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

LGA:

7/24: 83/69 (-2)

7/25: 70/64 (-11)

7/26: 84/65 (-3)

7/27:

7/28:

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

JFK:

7/24: 88/70 (+3)

7/25: 70/63 (-9)

7/26:

7/27:

7/28:

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

New brunswick:

7/24: 83/64 (-2)

7/25:  69/64 (-9)

7/26:  84/65 (0)

7/27:

7/28:

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

 

 

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62F this morning, beautiful.

 

Very very nice past 2 days!  Clouds building in today though and likely cloudy and some storms tomorrow.  Overnight guidance maintains a trough over the northeast and seems to delay any WAR retrogression.  I suspect we see some ridging before mid month but certainly looking troughy through and beyong aug 3 for now...

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Very very nice past 2 days!  Clouds building in today though and likely cloudy and some storms tomorrow.  Overnight guidance maintains a trough over the northeast and seems to delay any WAR retrogression.  I suspect we see some ridging before mid month but certainly looking troughy through and beyong aug 3 for now...

 

12z guidance getting stronger w/ the trough. Pretty confident we're normal to below through the 15th at least, and August has a shot at finishing normal or below IMO. See ya to the WAR for awhile.          

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High of 87 today at TEB seems a bit suspect to me... too high. Newark, normally the warmest station in the area, only made it to 84.

Yeah, TEB seems to have those suspect heat spikes every now and then. I'm pretty sure that has something to do with the exhaust from the jets. The ASOS is awfully close to the taxiway. On some days you can actually feel the exhaust from the jets on route 46 when the airport is busy, so I don't think it's much of a stretch at all.

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...great beach day(saturday) on the east end..some high clouds came 

thru only to clear as the afternoon went on..water was cool and a little rough

at times..typical SW wind with temps close to 80*..i'd give it a 10!

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High of 87 today at TEB seems a bit suspect to me... too high. Newark, normally the warmest station in the area, only made it to 84.

 

Newark had a SE wind during the afternoon off the bay.

 

August 5-10th, might be the coolest and driest period of the summer. The modelelled pattern looks fairly anomalous.

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The +NAO since April was driving the very strong WAR pattern. The NAO had to drop sometime

so we are finally able to get a trough into the Northeast now to start August.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Cooldown

 

 

NYC:

7/24: 83/68 (-1)

7/25: 68/64 (-11)

7/26: 83/65 (-3)

7/27:  82/70 (-1)

7/28:

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

EWR:

7/24: 84/68 (-2)

7/25: 68/62 (-12)

7/26: 85/66 (-2)

7/27: 84/67 (-2)

7/28:

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

LGA:

7/24: 83/69 (-2)

7/25: 70/64 (-11)

7/26: 84/65 (-3)

7/27: 84/71 (0)

7/28:

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

JFK:

7/24: 88/70 (+3)

7/25: 70/63 (-9)

7/26: 84/64  (-2)

7/27: 81/68 (-1)

7/28:

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

New brunswick:

7/24: 83/64 (-2)

7/25: 69/64 (-9)

7/26: 84/65 (0)

7/27: 86/64 (0)

7/28:

7/29:

7/30:

7/31:

 

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00z guidance continues and as others had been suggesting doesnt offer any real ridging or sustained heat thru the the next 10 days. There may be an oppurtunity for some 90s ahead of next weekend front between  8/3 and  8/4.  Other than than that  the trough and continued unsetteled over the ortheast north of DC and temps generally -5 to normal, but cant rule out some stronger negatives due to clouds/rain as well as a few above days.  Still think heat will be delayed not denied for a stretch in August and bring the month inthe positve territory. 

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July 2013 will end up as a top ten warmest on record...it could end up averaging over 80.0...forecast temperatures put the average at 79.9 at months end...TWT...

Warmest...
81.4 in 1999
81.3 in 2010
80.9 in 1955
80.3 in 1952
80.2 in 2011
80.1 in 1993
80.0 in 1908

79.9 in 2013 estimated...
79.7 in 1966
79.6 in 1949
79.5 in 1983
79.4 in 1994
79.4 in 1944

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July 2013 will end up as a top ten warmest on record...it could end up averaging over 80.0...forecast temperatures put the average at 79.9 at months end...TWT...

Warmest...

81.4 in 1999

81.3 in 2010

80.9 in 1955

80.3 in 1952

80.2 in 2011

80.1 in 1993

80.0 in 1908

79.9 in 2013 estimated...

79.7 in 1966

79.6 in 1949

79.5 in 1983

79.4 in 1994

79.4 in 1944

 

 

Unprecedented LGA July heat from 2006-2013 with the same amount of +80 degree Julys

in the last 8 years as the previous 53.

 

1952-2005....6 years

2006-2013....6 years

 

 

Warmest Julys at LGA

 

82.8.....2010

81.9.... 1999

81.7.....2013...so far

81.3.....1955

80.8.....1993...1966

80.7.....2006

80.6....1994

80.4.... 2012..2011

80.3...1952

80.0...2008

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