SnoSki14 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Well so much for a cooler summer than the last 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Haven't looked at the models today and I'm at work...do they show the precip down to our SW making up it this way later this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Had a Dew Point of 75 today (highest of the year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Haven't looked at the models today and I'm at work...do they show the precip down to our SW making up it this way later this evening? Heavy rain and thunderstorms on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Wonder how strong that batch of rain will be when it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Wonder how strong that batch of rain will be when it gets here Depends on what you mean by 'here'. I think Monmouth county and southern Middlesex will get hit pretty good and then up into eastern parts of the city. I don't think NE NJ will see much of anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I'm in Florida now and it's still raining...It was the wettest drive there ever did here...It was like driving thru a car wash for hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Nice pounding in progress here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 My rain gauge has 0.51" in 11 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 My rain gauge has 0.51" in 11 min Nice, .47 here in the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 A gust front came through as the heavy rain started. Prob winds around 30 mph. Just had a cg and a loud crack of thunder as mod rain continues. Merrick...so Nassau Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 3, 2013 Author Share Posted July 3, 2013 That was the heaviest downpour of the last week here in Western Nassau. It was torrential for about 2-3 minutes with the visibility of 1/8-1/4 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 A gust front came through as the heavy rain started. Prob winds around 30 mph. Just had a cg and a loud crack of thunder as mod rain continues. Merrick...so Nassau Co TDWR TJFK has some nice BV's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Well so much for a cooler summer than the last 3. There is no comparison to the last 3 summers. No where near as hot. Most areas have only had one heatwave and hardly that. There's still a lot of the summer season left. While the first half of July will be above , the 2nd half doesn't really look all that hot, in fact another very wet pattern is likely again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 There is no comparison to the last 3 summers. No where near as hot. Most areas have only had one heatwave and hardly that. There's still a lot of the summer season left. While the first half of July will be above , the 2nd half doesn't really look all that hot, in fact another very wet pattern is likely again. Other than June 2010, this June was warmer at many locations than '11 and '12. I do agree with the drought now foused to the southwest we wont see extreme heat like those years. Its also very wet like 2009, 2003 and 2006 and of those trio, 2006/2003 are taking the lead in analogs with 2008 also in the mix with a dominant WAR. Such patterns with strong western atlantic ridges favor growing warmth especliaaly through the end of july and august. I still think we are in the warmest part of the summer overall against the means but suspect aug ma feature the greatest positive departure. As far as July looking ahead it should be above to well above normal through the 11th before we see more active fronts/storms between the 11 and 13th. But by the middle of the month the latest guidance is hinting that the WAR builds back west. By the 11th we will have racked up departures of 4 - 8 above normal. With th wetness and the core of the heat staying west do agree the blowtorch heat (100's) will be limited for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Nextreme.....Lol you do not know what the 2nd half of july might bring. There will multiple posters just two weeks ago saying there were no 90 degree plus temps from late june to mid july...and that willend up being a fail. I think this june was warmer or equal to last years for most. Sure we dont have 100 degree temps but so what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Sacrus you have been money in analyzing and breaking down this pattern rather than just post doom and gloom model qpfs like some others. Keep up the outstanding work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Sacrus you have been money in analyzing and breaking down this pattern rather than just post doom and gloom model qpfs like some others. Keep up the outstanding work I think all of the discussions and analysis has been very good and interesting. From the cool may, heavy june rains and growing warmth to me its very enjoyable discussions. I know like you, i enjoy heat in the summer but I also enjoy and learn from the discussions. What happens thee rest of july is as muh a guess as anything but we should see some strong warmth and positive departures through the first 10 days or so. Enjoy the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 1.14" rain from tonight's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 today's highs; TEB: 86NYC: 82EWR: 86LGA: 83JFK: 79ISP: 80New Brunswick: 85TTN: 85ACY: 83PHL: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 3, 2013 Author Share Posted July 3, 2013 This has been the dominant pattern since April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 That's a very ominous pattern with regards to tropical activity if it continues. A strong WAR with higher heights extending to eastern Canada could put the SE USA as well as the entire east coast in huge danger, I have a feeling the streak of major hurricane landfalls will end this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 3, 2013 Author Share Posted July 3, 2013 That's a very ominous pattern with regards to tropical activity if it continues. A strong WAR with higher heights extending to eastern Canada could put the SE USA as well as the entire east coast in huge danger, I have a feeling the streak of major hurricane landfalls will end this season. That has been the story of the last few years with Irene in 2011 and Sandy last year. The strong WAR was also in place when Andrea dumped the heavy rains across the region in early June. So things really become interesting if this pattern remains in place for the height of the hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 That has been the story of the last few years with Irene in 2011 and Sandy last year. The strong WAR was also in place when Andrea dumped the heavy rains across the region in early June. So things really become interesting if this pattern remains in place for the height of the hurricane season. Yes or maybe even earlier, with the MJO being favorable for the Atlantic and the waves off of Africa becoming more potent, I know some forecasters show mid July starting to be quite active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 3, 2013 Author Share Posted July 3, 2013 Yes or maybe even earlier, with the MJO being favorable for the Atlantic and the waves off of Africa becoming more potent, I know some forecasters show mid July starting to be quite active. Right now it looks like the favorable MJO phase should work in concert with the trough to produce a big rainstorm in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 activity is coming north from snj. today looks wetter than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 activity is coming north from snj. today looks wetter than yesterday maybe but it seems like the best stuff is going to stay to our south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Warmup looks to end by Sunday night with more showery and rainy conditions unfolding lasting into most of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Warmup looks to end by Sunday night with more showery and rainy conditions unfolding lasting into most of next week. Upton going hot/dry for NYC Friday:Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Upton going hot/dry for NYC Friday:Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Most models are showing it now. Hopefully, it is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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