Guest Pamela Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Mt Sinai reporting 0.40" rain from the storms moving through so far. Edit: Now at 0.91". Later last evening, after about 9:00 PM, a second round of showers & t-storms moved through the area, putting down another 1.4" or rain, for about 2.3 inches of rain since late in the afternoon and about 2.8" in the previous 24 hours for the Port Jeff / Mt Sinai area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Crazy night in Mt sinai... major storms dumping torrential rain.. also had one yesturday! All 3 had crazy lightning and extremely heavy rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2013 Author Share Posted July 24, 2013 NAEFS starting to pick up on warmer temperatures above 90 returning for early August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 0z 4k has an insane amount of moisture being aimed at the northeast this weekend It was lost on the 06z run, we still get a lot of rain but it mainly falls on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 NAEFS starting to pick up on warmer temperatures above 90 returning for early August. 2013072400_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png think WAR slowly moves back west for 2nd to 3rd week in aug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 think WAR slowly moves back west for 2nd to 3rd week in aug. Not good considering the likely uptick in tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Not good considering the likely uptick in tropical systems. Assuming TD #4 holds together it should be approaching the Bahamas in about 7-10 days. That would be a danger zone for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Assuming TD #4 holds together it should be approaching the Bahamas in about 7-10 days. That would be a danger zone for us. I don't think TD 4 will be the real threat given conditions will never be too favorable for any significant strengthening, it's what will follow that I would be concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 I don't think TD 4 will be the real threat given conditions will never be too favorable for any significant strengthening, it's what will follow that I would be concerned about. NHC forecast has a tropical storm NE of PR on Monday. Conditions would be improving at that point and it would be entering an area of very warm SST's. Most of the models that had this dissipating had it doing do within the next 24-48 hours. The name Dorian sounds like a beast. Hopefully that name produces something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 sort of "Analysis by Bornstein and LeRoy (1990) has shown that New York City (NYC) affects both summer daytime thunderstorm formation and movement. During conditions with nearly calm regional flows, the NYC UHI initiated convective activity, thus producing a radar echo frequency maximum over the City. Moving thunderstorms, however, bifurcated and moved around the city due to a building-barrier-induced divergence effect. During such conditions, radar echo maxima were thus produced on both lateral edges of the City and downwind of the city, while a minimum was located over the city itself. The downwind maximum associated with moving convective storms is consistent with results from the classic METROMEX field study, which also showed a precipitation maximum downwind of St. Louis (Changnon, 1981). It is also consistent with the convective precipitation study of Selover (1997), which showed that moving summer convective storms over Phoenix, Arizona produce a precipitation minimum over the city in conjunction with surrounding lateral and downwind maximum values." http://www.met.sjsu.edu/faculty/bornstein/old/ATLANTA/UHILIN-ATLANTA-2000.pdf That's wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 NHC forecast has a tropical storm NE of PR on Monday. Conditions would be improving at that point and it would be entering an area of very warm SST's. Most of the models that had this dissipating had it doing do within the next 24-48 hours. The name Dorian sounds like a beast. Hopefully that name produces something big. Ahh Hurricane season.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Looking like we will have Tropical Storm Dorian shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 I'm not expecting too much from Dorian. It's moving into an area of the SAL, and it's going to go over sub 26 C SSTs. Both do not bode well for excessive development. On the other hand, it still seems to be maintaining it's core well, so we'll just have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2013 Author Share Posted July 24, 2013 The main problem is going to be the shear with the TUTT north of Puerto Rico in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 The main problem is going to be the shear with the TUTT north of Puerto Rico in 5 days. 850200shear20.png The NHC discussion mentions that, though it sounds like they're a bit unsure of the impacts associated with it. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THE TRACK FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A LITTLE DRIER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2013 Author Share Posted July 24, 2013 The NHC discussion mentions that, though it sounds like they're a bit unsure of the impacts associated with it. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THE TRACK FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A LITTLE DRIER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD. You can see the GFS and Euro open it up back into a wave when it gets into that region. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013072406&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013072400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 think WAR slowly moves back west for 2nd to 3rd week in aug. Many of the GFS ensembles build back the WAR in the long term. The split flow will cause cold fronts/trough to drop from north. But I wouldn't be surprised to see more 95-100 temps in that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 What a joke the NAM is, now it's back to keeping everything offshore on Thursday and Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 What a joke the NAM is, now it's back to keeping everything offshore on Thursday and Friday The NAM has been dry all along for Thursday. Only the 4k was showing anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 The NAM has been dry all along for Thursday. Only the 4k was showing anything And the 4k remains well west of the the regular NAM, which one do we believe? NONE vs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 We now have Tropical Storm DORIAN Max winds 45MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2013 Author Share Posted July 24, 2013 Heaviest rain potential tomorrow should be toward the eastern half of the region closer to the higher PW's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 NAEFS starting to pick up on warmer temperatures above 90 returning for early August. 2013072400_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png It looks too influenced by the warm water. One can see w/ the above normal colors generously spread near the Great Lakes w/ the extension southeast through W NY State toward the Atlantic Ocean. The ECMWF ensembles generally keep the higher heights associated w/ the West Atlantic Ridge displaced further east over the next 6-10 days. Near to cooler than normal temperature anomalies are progged through early August on the ECMWF ensembles, with the mean trough axis in the Lakes, extending into much of the Northeast. Coastal New England might have some issues with the WAR, but for most of the Northeast, this looks like a near normal to slightly cooler than normal pattern through at least early August. ECMWF ensembles out at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 GFS now has Dorian at its closest approach to the area in 13 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Dew points have yet to drop out here. Still in the upper 60's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2013 Author Share Posted July 24, 2013 The Euro continues with the best chance for rain closer to the coast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 The Euro continues with the best chance for rain closer to the coast tomorrow. North32America_msl_24.gif North32America_msl_36.gif Does it have the weekend coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2013 Author Share Posted July 24, 2013 Does it have the weekend coastal? The low scoots just to our east, but there is another front by late Sunday into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 18z 4k NAM insisting on bringing rains to at least coastal sections on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 18z 4k NAM insisting on bringing rains to at least coastal sections on Thursday Euro brings .30"-.50" to coastal areas as well Thursday evening and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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