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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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Clouds will make it  a challenge to reach 90 for some areas around the city but EWR, JFK and a good chink of CNJ look good to continue the heatwave.

 

It was was pretty cool to see how far west that cutoff was pushed by the WAR last week.

 

http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2013/07/17/the-amazing-retrograding-low-all-the-forecasters-are-talking-about/

 

The raob weather balloon at Pittsburgh Monday night had to climb to 600 decameters (6 kilometers) to reach the 500 millibar pressure level (Pressure at the surface is around 1000 millibars, so 500mb is about halfway through the atmosphere). The hotter the atmosphere, the higher you have to go to reach 500 millibars, and a 600 DM height is very rare indeed, and almost unheard of that far north.

 

 

 

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The back of the heat has been broken. Both the GFS and ECMWF have the mean trough shifting into the Lakes/northeast for the next couple weeks w/ the WAR displaced eastward. Looks like nights will remain on the mild side the next several days with cooler high temperatures, then we'll begin to see the drier pushes reaching the coastal Northeast by the end of the month.

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4PM Roundup (streak may be over unless some late surge as we clear out from nw to se.

 

TEB: 87 (88 high so far)

NYC: 88 (88 high so far)

EWR:  86 (88 high so far)

LGA:  86 (86 high so far)

JFK: 84 (88 high so far)

ISP: 83

New Bnswk: 87 (88 high so far tday)

BLM: 80

TTN;  85

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counting today NYC has averaged 81.2 over the last 30 days...That is one of the hottest 30 day periods on record...todays minimum could drop below the mornings low which could make the average a little lower...tomorrow could be warmer than June 22nd so it would need to be recalculated up...
Hottest 30 day periods...
82.5 in 1980
81.9 in 1876
81.9 in 1999
81.8 in 2005
81.8 in 2010
81.6 in 1955
81.2 in 2013 .
81.2 in 1993
81.1 in 1995
81.1 in 1988
81.0 in 1966
81.0 in 2011
80.9 in 1983

decade average since 1930...
1930's 78.3
1940's 77.7
1950's 78.0
1960's 77.0
1970's 77.8
1980's 78.7
1990's 78.6
2000's 77.4
2010's 80.9

ave.... 78.0

2012...79.5

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Guest Patrick

very interesting info, uncle. 

of course, the next question is...any correllation between this and the following winter weather?

counting today NYC has averaged 81.2 over the last 30 days...That is one of the hottest 30 day periods on record...todays minimum could drop below the mornings low which could make the average a little lower...tomorrow could be warmer than June 22nd so it would need to be recalculated up...
Hottest 30 day periods...
82.5 in 1980
81.9 in 1876
81.9 in 1999
81.8 in 2005
81.8 in 2010
81.6 in 1955
81.2 in 2013 .
81.2 in 1993
81.1 in 1995
81.1 in 1988
81.0 in 1966
81.0 in 2011
80.9 in 1983

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very interesting info, uncle. 

of course, the next question is...any correllation between this and the following winter weather?

probably nothing but it puts the heat wave into prospective...there are some great analogs though especially 2010, 1966, 1993 and 1995...A few duds are listed also...1988 and 2011...

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The ridge will shift a few degrees east as we head into early August with plenty of opportunities

for convection. 600 dm+ is about as strong a ridge that you are going to see south of the 

Canadian Maritimes. There is quite a SST anomaly in the areas which have been under

ridging since April.

 

 

 

 

 

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Going forward what days will be our best chance for rain?

 

Looks like diurnal convection this afternoon and evening given marginal instability. Decent chance tomorrow as upper level trough and weak low pressure area bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms.

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Both the 06z NAM and GFS were 1-2"+ over the next four days for the I-95 corridor.

GFS is completely dry for Wednesday thru Friday. It has temps in the 50s Thursday morning and low 80s at best for a high. Rain should be confined to this afternoon thru Tuesday evening. Euro is also dry Wednesday and Thursday but very wet from Thursday night thru Friday night.

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