July 2013 Observations and Discussions

[IsentropicLift]

Flash Flood Watch Extended

 

Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ345 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-020800-/O.CON.KPHI.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130703T0000Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN345 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR* PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND  PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN DELAWARE...  DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW CASTLE. IN  NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES  AND TALBOT. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...  MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...  SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND WARREN. IN PENNSYLVANIA...  BERKS...CARBON...DELAWARE...EASTERN CHESTER...EASTERN  MONTGOMERY...LEHIGH...LOWER BUCKS...MONROE...NORTHAMPTON...  PHILADELPHIA...UPPER BUCKS...WESTERN CHESTER AND WESTERN  MONTGOMERY.* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING* ONE OR TWO MORE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TIMING THE  ONSET OF ANOTHER 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCING  SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN. SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS  AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND EASTERN  PENNSYLVANIA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SOMEWHAT  MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN EPISODE VERY LATE  TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.* TEN TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS  OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE GROUND IS NEARLY  SATURATED. THIS MONDAY MORNINGS 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS IN 30 TO 60  MINUTES PRODUCED POCKETS OF FLASH AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN  PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.* BE PREPARED FOR TRAVEL DELAYS IN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY  MORNING DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THERE MAY BE SMALL AREAS  OF MORE DANGEROUS FLOODING INCLUDING SMALL STREAM FLOODING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEADTO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTIONSHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.&&

[forkyfork]

i remember ag3 mentioning the euro showing a system coming up the coast.  from okx:

 

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

PREVIOUSLY EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH IN TIME DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE

ENERGY CLEARLY SEEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z

ECMWF...AS DOES THE 12Z GEM...SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS

AND STRETCHES OUT THE VORTICITY WITH A VORT MAX REACHING US

TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE

VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH FLOODING - ESPECIALLY FOR NE NJ.

[ag3]

i remember ag3 mentioning the euro showing a system coming up the coast. from okx:

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

PREVIOUSLY EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH IN TIME DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE

ENERGY CLEARLY SEEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z

ECMWF...AS DOES THE 12Z GEM...SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS

AND STRETCHES OUT THE VORTICITY WITH A VORT MAX REACHING US

TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE

VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH FLOODING - ESPECIALLY FOR NE NJ.

Today's 12z euro still has this activity tomorrow morning.

Pretty similar to today. Doesn't show a ton of rain verbatim, .25"-.50" areawide, but should be a lot more under convection, like today.

[snywx]

2.68"...  Skies are finally brightening up

[bluewave]

This may be the only time that I can remember NYC missing a monthly precip record by less than

12 hours.

[IsentropicLift]

Sun is out here, humid as hell. Wonder if that sets up more storms.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Flash Flood Watch until Tuesday @10PM.

[Weathergun]

The 12z Euro has a vort max going to our east early tomorrow morning. Then another strong vort max going right over NYC area tomorrow afternoon. The second one will likely trigger more convection over the area, with more instability ahead of it.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The 12z Euro has a vort max going to our east early tomorrow morning. Then another strong vort max going right over NYC area tomorrow afternoon. The second one will likely trigger more convection over the area, with more instability ahead of it.

 

Oh boy. I'm gonna hear tons of pitter pattering on my AC by morning.

[snywx]

**MINOR FLOODING - WALLKILL RIVER**

The NWS has increased the forecast for the Wallkill River to reach 'MINOR FLOODING STAGE by 3am. 

OCEM has been in contact with each of the municipalities along the river to provide them with an update and to allow time for pre-planning activities. 

DEF: Minor Flood Stage
Rivers: minor flooding is expected at this level, slightly above flood stage. Few, if any, buildings are expected to be inundated, however, roads may be covered with water, parklands and yards may be inundated and water may go under buildings on higher elevations.

Area residents are advised to raise items in low lying levels of the home (basements) and clean out drainage areas of debris and lawn clippings which may hamper drainage efforts in the area. Anticipated flooding conditions may result in road closures for known problematic locations in low lying areas near waterways. 

OCEM participated in a conference call at 2pm with the NWS. Based on forecast models the NWS is 'concerned' about all water ways in the area and will be heavily monitor developing storms over the next 2-3 days. Another round of heavy storms is expected to effect our area Tuesday night into Wed morning. 

OCEM continues to monitor all river gauges and will notify the public should any major changes occur - this information is for the WALLKILL RIVER ONLY. More information as it becomes available. 

 

 

 

[gkrangers]

EF 0 tornado is confirmed in NJ.

[Dsnowx53]

Summary of the tornado: 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

000
NOUS41 KOKX 020143
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
020545-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013


...TORNADO CONFIRMED FROM BERKELEY HEIGHTS TO SUMMIT IN UNION
COUNTY NEW JERSEY...

LOCATION...BERKELEY HEIGHTS TO NEW PROVIDENCE TO SUMMIT IN UNION
COUNTY NEW JERSEY
DATE...JULY 1 2013
ESTIMATED TIME...917 AM TO 925 AM LST
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...4.8 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.68N / 74.45W
ENDING LAT/LON...40.72N / 74.38W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK NY HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO FROM BERKELEY HEIGHTS TO SUMMIT IN UNION COUNTY NEW JERSEY ON
JULY 1 2013. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN BERKELEY HEIGHTS NEAR THE
PASSAIC RIVER JUST WEST OF GARFIELD STREET. IT PASSED NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEW PROVIDENCE AND LIFTED IN SUMMIT NEW JERSEY NEAR EVERGREEN
AVENUE.

EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE TORNADO PATH WITH
THE GREATEST DAMAGE OCCURRING AT THE SEWAGE TREATMENT PLANT NEAR
SNYDER AVENUE IN BERKELEY HEIGHTS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ALSO INTERVIEWED AN EYEWITNESS OF THE TORNADO FOR ADDITIONAL
CONFIRMATION. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WERE ALSO OBSERVED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ENTIRE TORNADO PATH.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK UNION
COUNTY...BERKELEY HEIGHTS AND SUMMIT NEW JERSEY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS FOR THEIR HELP AND ASSISTANCE IN THIS DAMAGE SURVEY.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/NYC.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

$

LN

[Irishmick9]

I work in Berkeley Heights less than a mile from tornado...on 4th floor and can't see out too well but now I wish I had gone to the window. Got pretty windy with lights flickering but nothing too crazy. Close as I may ever get to a tornado, albeit a F0

[uofmiami]

Link from OKX with a map of the tornado path:

 

http://ow.ly/i/2v9xY

[Stormlover74]

I noticed Bridgewater and branchburg in somerset county just to the SW of berkeley heights reported similar damage. I wonder if mt holly is planning to send a team as well?

[RutgersWx92]

I noticed Bridgewater and branchburg in somerset county just to the SW of berkeley heights reported similar damage. I wonder if mt holly is planning to send a team as well?

Yes we did get a lot of tree damage, but I think it was mainly from straight-line winds.  Regardless it was quite a storm here; I've never seen it rain harder in my life, and it was very windy as well.  Roads were closed all over the place from downed trees and power lines as well as flooding.  My power was out for 3 hours this morning.  Some pics I took in the area:

 

 

[Cyg]

Well, how about that. I was looking out the window, in the direction of the tornado (less than a mile away looking at the path) when this occurred but, unfortunately, all I could see was rain being blown somewhat sideways. The rain definitely let up a bit before the wind gusts hit and then picked up again shortly after. Oh, and of course the one time I don't whip out my camera is when a tornado goes through town!  

[ag3]

Euro isn't handling things well right now.

The 0z run had .21" through 8am and then .27" and .28" the next two 6 hour periods.

[winterwarlock]

we do not need more rain, lets hope it continues to be wrong and the GFS scores a coup

[Weathergun]

Wasn't expecting much here, this early. We'll have to watch more showers and t-storms over Delmarva now.

[IsentropicLift]

Picked up quite a bit of rain this morning already. In any event at JFK waiting to go St Maarten. Enjoy your vacation without me lol.

[Weathergun]

Also the GFS and Euro have 850mb temps 17-19C with W-NW winds, over the weekend. Low or middle 90s is possible. However, we have to watch some passing disturbances with clouds or t-storms.

 

Early next week, looks the same as well

[SACRUS]

Also the GFS and Euro have 850mb temps 17-19C with W-NW winds, over the weekend. Low or middle 90s is possible. However, we have to watch some passing disturbances with clouds or t-storms.

 

Early next week, looks the same as well

 

 

The ECM has an area 850 temps above 20c by mon/tue next week around the area.  I d guess 7/4 - 7/7 is upper 80s to low 90s and early next week we have shot at some mid 90s.  Very humid conditons look to continue through next week.  we also shoud continue to see threa of storms most days.  Guidance does hint at a trough moving throuh between the 11th and 13th  followed by rebuilding WAR.  Its an above normal pattern but not super hot like 2010/11/12 yet. 

[Isotherm]

First half of July will certainly be above normal with a 4-6 day stretch of 90F conditions possible from the 4th onward through around the 10th. Like others, I also believe we'll peak early next week w/ less cloud cover and more WLY flow. Afternoon CU and convection 4th-7th may keep temps from rising beyond the lower 90s.

 

Once after the 10th, we'll see the Western ridge retrograde and more s/w troughs amplifying into the Northeast for the second half of the month.

[SnoSki14]

First half of July will certainly be above normal with a 4-6 day stretch of 90F conditions possible from the 4th onward through around the 10th. Like others, I also believe we'll peak early next week w/ less cloud cover and more WLY flow. Afternoon CU and convection 4th-7th may keep temps from rising beyond the lower 90s.

Once after the 10th, we'll see the Western ridge retrograde and more s/w troughs amplifying into the Northeast for the second half of the month.

Do you think the 1st half of July will feature the hottest temps of the summer/year or will August see even hotter temperatures.

[Weathergun]

The ECM has an area 850 temps above 20c by mon/tue next week around the area.  I d guess 7/4 - 7/7 is upper 80s to low 90s and early next week we have shot at some mid 90s.  Very humid conditons look to continue through next week.  we also shoud continue to see threa of storms most days.  Guidance does hint at a trough moving throuh between the 11th and 13th  followed by rebuilding WAR.  Its an above normal pattern but not super hot like 2010/11/12 yet. 

 

20C+ 850mb temps with west winds and enough sun would support temps 95F+ (possibly upper 90s). Today's 12z GFS brings 20C+ into CNJ, early next week.

[Stormlover74]

First half of July will certainly be above normal with a 4-6 day stretch of 90F conditions possible from the 4th onward through around the 10th. Like others, I also believe we'll peak early next week w/ less cloud cover and more WLY flow. Afternoon CU and convection 4th-7th may keep temps from rising beyond the lower 90s.

 

Once after the 10th, we'll see the Western ridge retrograde and more s/w troughs amplifying into the Northeast for the second half of the month.

Yeah I don't see any way July ends up below normal. Probably at least +2-+3

[mupawxnut]

First half of July will certainly be above normal with a 4-6 day stretch of 90F conditions possible from the 4th onward through around the 10th. Like others, I also believe we'll peak early next week w/ less cloud cover and more WLY flow. Afternoon CU and convection 4th-7th may keep temps from rising beyond the lower 90s.

Once after the 10th, we'll see the Western ridge retrograde and more s/w troughs amplifying into the Northeast for the second half of the month.

So more rain the second half of the month?

[bluewave]

Yeah I don't see any way July ends up below normal. Probably at least +2-+3

 

That's about right for last 2 Julys with a dominant Western Atlantic Ridge. July 2008 was +1.9 and 1994 finished +2.6 at NYC.

 

 

 

CFS July forecast

 

 

 

 

 

[darienzo]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
254 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN THE TOWNS OF GREENWICH AND STAMFORD IN
FAIRFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT...

LOCATION...GREENWICH TO STAMFORD IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT
DATE...JULY 1 2013
ESTIMATED TIME...1058 AM TO 1108 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...3.7 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...41.11N / 73.63W
ENDING LAT/LON...41.12N / 73.56W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK NY HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO IN THE TOWNS OF GREENWICH AND STAMFORD IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT ON JULY 1 2013. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN THE TOWN
OF GREENWICH ON NORTH STREET JUST NORTH OF THE MERRITT PARKWAY. IT
CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE TOWN OF STAMFORD AND LIFTED ON
JANES LANE APPROXIMATELY A HALF MILE WEST OF SCOFIELDTOWN ROAD.

EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE TORNADO PATH
STARTING ON TACONIC ROAD AND CONTINUING ONTO SKYRIDGE ROAD. THE
WORST TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF
STAG LANE AND STANWICH ROAD. TREE DAMAGE CONTINUED ON CARRINGTON
DRIVE AND AT THE MEAD HOUSE FARM. THE TORNADO STARTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVED INTO THE TOWN OF STAMFORD JUST SOUTH OF WEB HILLS ROAD
AND LYNAM ROAD. NO VISIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS SEEN DURING THE
SURVEY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE CONNECTICUT
DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY SERVICES AND PUBLIC PROTECTION...TOWN OF
GREENWICH PARKS AND TREES DIVISION...AND THE TOWN OF GREENWICH AND
STAMFORD POLICE DEPARTMENTS.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/NYC.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.