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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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Not necessarily equivalent. Convection is often diurnal and widely-scattered in these setups, without a well-organized storm system.

 

We probably average above normal on warmer mins to start August, but not much in the way of real heat showing

up day 6-15. 

 

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SSTs right now are insane.

 

Texas Tower off the NJ coast has been between 78 and 80F and the air temp there didn't dip below 80F overnight.

 

The buoy at the NY Harbor entrance is in the upper 70s.

 

A buoy in Nantucket Sound is currently reporting both an air and water temp of 75F (and had its water temp get up to 77F yesterday).

 

A buoy off the northern Maine coast has a water temp between 58 and 60F, which is crazy for way up there.

 

God help us if a storm comes up the coast later this season.

Is their any correlation between above average SST in July and where they end up peaking later in the season? Typically the southern NJ coast peaks right around 80F but most spots in the area that are open water peak in the upper 70's. Seems most locations have already neared or reached peak temps.

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Is their any correlation between above average SST in July and where they end up peaking later in the season? Typically the southern NJ coast peaks right around 80F but most spots in the area that are open water peak in the upper 70's. Seems most locations have already neared or reached peak temps.

Not really, the high SST's are just at the surface and a period of offshore winds would cause them to upwell and knock the water temp by 5+ degrees in no time, even a storm down south generating big waves would have the same effect.
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Is their any correlation between above average SST in July and where they end up peaking later in the season? Typically the southern NJ coast peaks right around 80F but most spots in the area that are open water peak in the upper 70's. Seems most locations have already neared or reached peak temps.

 

July has been the peak of the season for SST's since 2010. The upper 70's to around 80 this week will look

more like low to mid 70's in August. 

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12z 4k NAM continues to speed up the progression of the storms for Saturday. Has the bulk of precip coming in between 20z and pushing out around 02z.

 

Hammers northern NJ, NYC and Long Island. Pretty much a win for all

 

Fascinating the the regular NAM has virtually nothing for the area on Saturday and shows all of the storms collapsing over PA and Upstate NY

nam-hires_namer_033_sim_reflectivity.gif

 

nam-hires_namer_036_sim_reflectivity.gif

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