bluewave Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 Isn't the record high minimum 86 degrees? Which would make this morning tied with the warmest morning on record. Yeah, if 86 was the actual low it was a tie. I live out in Western Nassau and even I couldn't fall below 80 last night with a low of 81.9 in suburbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 All the overnight models look better for storms tomorrow afternoon/night. 6z rgem looks great for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 New record high mins today. (Assuming we don't go lower this evening): NYC 83 LGA 86 JFK 80 EWR 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Yesterday's low was 83. So far today's low is 86 but we have to wait until tonight to see if we drop below that. 1 small pop up shower or a sea breeze would ruin that. Are we expecting pop up storms? I don't think the sea breeze will drop LGA below 86 by midnight, if it even gets there. I checked Wednesday when we got south winds for 7 hours from 4 or 5PM and onward and the temp dropped from 97 to 86 by midnight. If we get to 100+ and less of a sea breeze duration I can't see LGA of all places dropping below 86. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Are we expecting pop up storms? I don't think the sea breeze will drop LGA below 86 by midnight, if it even gets there. I checked Wednesday when we got south winds for 7 hours from 4 or 5PM and onward and the temp dropped from 97 to 86 by midnight. If we get to 100+ and less of a sea breeze duration I can't see LGA of all places dropping below 86. We'll see. We aren't expecting pop up showers but its always possible in these steamy setups. Today's sea breeze is gonna be much stronger. Offshore buoys are already at 15 knots and are progged to increase to 20-25 knots by noon with higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 The dews are creeping up with the highest readings of 2013 so far at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 All the overnight models look better for storms tomorrow afternoon/night. 6z rgem looks great for NYC and LI. The Nam and GFS only shows around 25kts of effective shear tomorrow afternoon and evening. Not enough for organized severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 83 for the low in Central Park this morning...a new record for the date...one degree off the all time record high min... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 The Nam and GFS only shows around 25kts of effective shear tomorrow afternoon and evening. Not enough for organized severe. I'll take a quick downpour just to knock down the temps. It's already a steambath out there anyway, might as well have a cooler steambath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 The dews are creeping up with the highest readings of 2013 so far at JFK. go.cgi.gif 87/79, these dews are just insane. My dew on my home station is now higher than it was when Irene hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 winds are out of the south west today...not north west like yesterday...NYC should hit 100 today unless we get a sea breeze or it clouds over...The air mass is getting dirty...The skies are clear with a haze this morning...as bad as it can get... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 83 for the low in Central Park this morning...a new record for the date...one degree off the all time record high min... You can already see a UHI effect all the way back in 1908. 7/7 84 in 1908 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 It's been like death out there, the sweat just dripping seconds once you step outside. Honestly I'd take 105F and low humidity or dry heat over this mess. We'll see if today tops yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 H5 tells the tale. Lower than normal heights in the Mid-west / Southeast with a major positive height anomaly at H5 over New England. The pattern doesn't support continued heat. In fact new Euro weeklies show near to below normal temps starting next week for 4 straight weeks . Not one week above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 You can already see a UHI effect all the way back in 1908. 7/7 84 in 1908 I think the park was a shanty town then but I could be wrong...no ac either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 The pattern doesn't support continued heat. In fact new Euro weeklies show near to below normal temps starting next week for 4 straight weeks . Not one week above normal. Yeah. That's part of my August Outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 87/79, these dews are just insane. My dew on my home station is now higher than it was when Irene hit. All we need is to maintain a dewpoint of 72 during peak heating for a 100 degree temperature to yield a HX of 110. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 The pattern doesn't support continued heat. In fact new Euro weeklies show near to below normal temps starting next week for 4 straight weeks . Not one week above normal. Pending on rain next week 7/21 - 7/27 will likely finish above normal. Overall warm/humid pattern (less heat / 90 degree days) next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Pending on rain next week 7/21 - 7/27 will likely finish above normal. Overall warm/humid pattern (less heat / 90 degree days) next week. Up here at Mount Vernon is totally different. Likely to finish near normal with the temps hovering near an average of 85F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Records 7/19 NYC: 102 (1977) EWR: 100 (1999, 1977) LGA: 99 (1977) JFK: 97 (1963) EWR and LGA have a high chance of breaking that record tomorrow. JFK will be very close because there is a definite strong see breeze on the models. NYC has no chance. NYC will make a run but likely come up short. any clouds or popo storms would hurt the others as well, but agree we get 3 of 4 records today 4th straight year of record July heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Pending on rain next week 7/21 - 7/27 will likely finish above normal. Overall warm/humid pattern (less heat / 90 degree days) next week. It looks like we are in moist flow with some unsettled weather, most of next week. Latest GFS and Euro bring back dews 70+ by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 It looks like we are in moist flow with some unsettled weather, most of next week. Latest GFS and Euro bring back dews 70+ by Tuesday. Certainly not as hot but the flow argues humid/warm but also wet. Pending on how much rain/clouds we get I suspect next week is also above normal. 7/28 - 8/3 probably the same but warmer towards 8/2 as it is looking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Barring any thunderstorms that bring the minimum temperature for NYC below this morning's figure of 83°, today could mark only the 6th day on record that NYC had a minimum temperature of 83° or higher. The five dates with such high minimum temperatures are: July 6, 1999: 83° July 15, 1995: 84° August 2, 2006: 83° July 22, 2011: 84° July 23, 2011: 83° All of those dates with the exception of August 2, 2006 saw the temperature rise to 100° or higher. On August 2, 2006, the mercury reached 97°. Barring cooling thunderstorms that would bring the minimum temperature below 80°, July 18-19, 2013 would mark only the 7th occasion on which consecutive days saw minimum readings at or above 80°. The six occasions on which there were consecutive 80° minimum temperatures are: August 8-9, 1980 August 14-15, 1988 July 5-6, 1999 July 3-4, 2002 July 6-7, 2010 July 22-23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 You can already see a UHI effect all the way back in 1908. 7/7 84 in 1908 Indeed Manhattan was built up as well as Western Brooklyn/Queens and eastern Jersey by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Midtown is literally unbearable this morning. Just an absolute steam/smog bath outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 I think the park was a shanty town then but I could be wrong...no ac either...Check out this urban development already.Scroll down to 1900s maps. http://alabamamaps.ua.edu/historicalmaps/us_states/newyork/NYC.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 All the overnight models look better for storms tomorrow afternoon/night. 6z rgem looks great for NYC and LI. Does that mean it doesn't look good for NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Pending on rain next week 7/21 - 7/27 will likely finish above normal. Overall warm/humid pattern (less heat / 90 degree days) next week. cfsv2 also agreeing with the Euro. August will likely be opposite of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 LGA joins the 90 at 9 am club. HX already 100 at EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Does that mean it doesn't look good for NJ? Same for NJ. But the 6z Rgem bullseyes NYC and LI. Probably going to change every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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