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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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Absolute bath water to the east of New England. This is partially why the West Atlantic Ridge (colloquial WAR) has been so strong this summer. The SSTA anomaly in some of our recent "cold" summers was generally polar opposite to the east of New England. Note the difference between this summer's NW Atlantic SSTA and 2004, 2003.  

 

 

With the SST this high, a tropical system with favorable variables, could actually strengthen while coming up the coast (pretty scary)

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With the SST this high, a tropical system could actually strengthen while coming up the coast (pretty scary)

You just get the feeling that all of the pieces are falling into place for an active season up our way.

 

Assuming the WAR does come back with a vengeance in early August, any CV system would have the tendency to make the entire trip over instead of recuring OTS.

 

Of course strong CV systems can feel the smallest weaknesses in the ridge so nothing is ever a lock.

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Another casualty to the heat:  Corporate Classic 5k tonight in Morristown.  Used to be the JPMC Corporate Challenge, now run by Verizon Wireless.  They just announced it's a 2.2 mile fun run/walk, no timing or competitions.  Very smart move on their part, but a bummer.  It's always a fun run and gets some great runners competing for their companies.  The neighborhoods always turn it into a big party, it will probably be a lot more subdued this year.

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With the SST this high, a tropical system with favorable variables could actually strengthen while coming up the coast (pretty scary)

It's hard for a tropical system to strengthen this far north, with it having to parallel land for 1,000 miles most likely. The westerlies are strong up here and dry air loves to get ingested into these systems. Dry air slaughtered Irene before she had a chance.

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It's hard for a tropical system to strengthen this far north, with it having to parallel land for 1,000 miles most likely. The westerlies are strong up here and dry air loves to get ingested into these systems. Dry air slaughtered Irene before she had a chance.

It didn't stop Irene from dumping historical amounts of rain, sure it didn't bring the wind or surge that Sandy brought. Could we get another major blocking regime like we had with Sandy? For sure.

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It only took one year. ;)

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

0136 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT JFK AIRPORT NY...

A RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES BREAKS THE HIGH

TEMPERATURE RECORD AT JFK NY TODAY. THE OLD RECORD WAS 96 SET IN

2012.

 

Beliebe EWR and TEB reached 100 also

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It didn't stop Irene from dumping historical amounts of rain, sure it didn't bring the wind or surge that Sandy brought. Could we get another major blocking regime like we had with Sandy? For sure.

With how close the WAR has been, if you get it just right you wouldn't even need the block (especially since the axis may orient further north than normal do to the higher SST)

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With how close the WAR has been, if you get it just right you wouldn't even need the block (especially since the axis may orient further north than normal do to the higher SST)

I agree with this, you could even get into a situation where the system ends up phasing with a stalled out front ala Floyd 99'

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As of yesterday Central Park sat at 80.8 degrees for the month. NWS lists the hottest month as 81.4 degrees in July 1999. I thought we beat that in 2010 but it lists that month as 81.3 degrees.

With the greatest heat still coming and only dipping to sightly above normal during our "cool down" I think we can make a run at the record.

 

Here at Mount Vernon, the temps for next week will average "near normal".

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and to think I'm selling my place there "because it's too hot all the time". Christ, maybe I should keep it and spend my summers there if this heat continues. 

don't get me wrong it is hot there with no breaks but if you add up all the days you have to stay in due to the cold/snow or heat here it probably adds up to a greater number of days you have to stay indoors...I'm 64 and I can't handle the cold like I used to...

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