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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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The highest number of 90 degree days in a row has been one of the few heat records that

we couldn't break the last few years. This is like baseball where the players have been 

hitting a ton of homers but no player has been able to hit 400 or beat Joe D's hitting streak.

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=656029924426326&set=a.188187191210604.50415.177148895647767&type=1&theater

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My point was yesterday people were calling for a return of the WAR post day 10 on the Euro, that simply wasn't the case after the last run. The 12z run also had the trough reloading over the lakes at that time.

 

The ensembles aren't as agressive with the trough as the OP's are. The Euro ens has the ridge beginning to build west 

with temps approaching 90 before the month ends. But nothing as hot as we are seeing this week.

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It looks like a very weak mesolow has formed along the sea-breeze front over Brooklyn.

The WAR can stay away until Mid-August. Lets get some big rains in here and then setup for Hurricane season. I tend to think that the longer the WAR persists now the less likely it is to persist into the end of Summer.

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The WAR can stay away until Mid-August. Lets get some big rains in here and then setup for Hurricane season. I tend to think that the longer the WAR persists now the less likely it is to persist into the end of Summer.

Speaking of that, I have some nice thoughts for August, but I won't post it yet until the last couple of days of this month.

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Speaking of that, I have some nice thoughts for August, but I won't post it yet until the last couple of days of this month.

I've noticed that most of the medium range guidance (GGEM and Euro) put us into an odd spot the next two weeks where most of the activity misses either to the north or the south. The setup of the ridge and setup of the trough is such that the flow coming out of southeast is almost due west to east so anything coming out of the south will tend to move off the coast from the Carolinas instead of coming northeastward.

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The WAR can stay away until Mid-August. Lets get some big rains in here and then setup for Hurricane season. I tend to think that the longer the WAR persists now the less likely it is to persist into the end of Summer.

 

The WAR won't be denied. It's been on a roll since April.

 

rinse...repeat...

 

 

 

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It's still going to keep the big heat displaced over the mid-west and to our south.

 

The big heat sure. But we'll see a few days of closer to normal before it pushes back to the upper 80's to around 90 

again. Getting a few lows below 70 degrees will give the AC's a break next week.

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The big heat sure. But we'll see a few days of closer to normal before it pushes back to the upper 80's to around 90 

again. Getting a few lows below 70 degrees will give the AC's a break next week.

80's during the day and 60's at night is going to feel "cool" after this week.

 

The 12z GFS keeps things wet and unsettled from the tropics up the east coast. It's pretty easy to make out where the ridge axis ends up based on QPF placement over the next 2 and 1/2 weeks.

 

gfs_atlantic_300_precip_ptot.gif

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