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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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The Euro had the max in the right region, but the amount was low since this was convection.

Often this time of year, it's a big model win just to get the location of the maxes correct

when convection is involved.

 

In comparison, here is the Rgem from the same run as the euro you posted:

 

PR_000-024_0000.gif

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This model has become almost as bad as the NAM, mostly useless.

 

 

Every model has struggled BIG TIME with the pattern we have been having. Euro included. It has been overdoing rain totals severely.

It's a tough pattern for models to predict accurately.

 

The rgem has been shaky as well through this pattern but in the shorter ranges, it's been decent. It was never really a good model to use past 24 hours, and it's best range is even shorter, hours 0-12.

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The dew points in the  60s earlier today made it feel like a nice day in Arizona relative to all this oppressive humidity we've had lately. I can't wait until late August when this stuff usually breaks. Being outside isn't even enjoyable unless you're just sitting having a beer or in the pool.

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