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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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That's what I posted the other day. But there will be several opportunities for readings above 90 next week.

 

Today will end the 90 streak for the sites that were at  days.   Next shot at 90s comes sun - fri next week with stronger heat by tue - thu period.  Some guidance hinting at 850 temps of 20c(+) then.

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Today will end the 90 streak for the sites that were at  days.   Next shot at 90s comes sun - fri next week with stronger heat by tue - thu period.  Some guidance hinting at 850 temps of 20c(+) then.

 

Yeah, I think that the hotspots will go 95+ at some point around the peak as the GFS and Euro have 20 C 850's.

 

 

 

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This is the point where the heat and humidity feel endless, probably another 3+ weeks of the worst heat. No wonder that first low in the 50s sometime in latter August or September feels so chilly. 

 

This strong WAR pattern combined with an active hurricane season could strongly resemble 2004. 

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Just looked at all overnight and morning guidance, and the euro looks like a huge outlier with regards to tonight and tomorrow.

Euro:

8pm to 2am: .69"

2am to 8am: .28"

8am to 2pm: .12"

2pm to 8pm: .14"

 

We'll see what the 12z guidance comes up with. The Euro is east of the GFS with the rainfall tonight.

 

 

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12z GFS has the 0.50"+ line kissing Staten Island through Saturday afternoon. Also keeps things unsettled for the weekend, espeically for eastern and southern areas as different waves develop along the stalled out front.

 

Overall wetter than the NAM

 

gfs_namer_024_precip_ptot.gif

Yes and most of that is from this morning through 7pm tonight with only a tenth falling thereafter. Considering how far the rain is from us right now I'd say the NAM and GFS are both clueless.

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Yes and most of that is from this morning through 7pm tonight with only a tenth falling thereafter. Considering how far the rain is from us right now I'd say the NAM and GFS are both clueless.

Aside from the rain down in Delaware there are some showers south of long island moving west, while the heaviest rain will likely be south of us there could be some convergence further north.
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Aside from the rain down in Delaware there are some showers south of long island moving west, while the heaviest rain will likely be south of us there could be some convergence further north.

QPF forecasts in general have been poor all the way around. Two days ago the RGEM went from showing apocolyptic rains to virtually nothing in one run.

 

It was also one of the wettest runs in awhile for the east coast again

 

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

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QPF forecasts in general have been poor all the way around. Two days ago the RGEM went from showing apocolyptic rains to virtually nothing in one run.

 

It was also one of the wettest runs in awhile for the east coast again

 

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

And did any model show Delaware and parts of MD getting 3 to 5" of rain in 12 hours?

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Just looked at all overnight and morning guidance, and the euro looks like a huge outlier with regards to tonight and tomorrow.

Euro:

8pm to 2am: .69"

2am to 8am: .28"

8am to 2pm: .12"

2pm to 8pm: .14"

 

 

Just a note that the 12z euro SLASHED this and corrected to the rest of the guidance.

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Just a note that the 12z euro SLASHED this and corrected to the rest of the guidance.

 

And for those following the 70 degree streak, the euro now has a very early morning low of 69.5 degrees for NYC.

NAM has 70.3.

 

Gonna be mightily close to hold on and break the record.

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And did any model show Delaware and parts of MD getting 3 to 5" of rain in 12 hours?

 

The Euro had the max in the right region, but the amount was low since this was convection.

Often this time of year, it's a big model win just to get the location of the maxes correct

when convection is involved.

 

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