ag3 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Rgem pulled most of the heavy rain it had for NYC on the 0z and 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Rgem pulled most of the heavy rain it had for NYC on the 0z and 6z run. Not surprised at all, it had insane QPF amounts on last nights 18z run. Hopefully today we see more widespread activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 It looks like the 0z Euro had the best handle on the situation today. It was correct with the heavy thunderstorms that moved through over the last few hours and doesn't have very much rainfall for the rest of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 It looks like the 0z Euro had the best handle on the situation today. It was correct with the heavy thunderstorms that moved through over the last few hours and doesn't have very much rainfall for the rest of today. Not really. 0z euro had .19" through 8am. Then .32" from 8am to 2pm and another .10" after. That doesn't look even remotely close right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Not really. 0z euro had .19" through 8am. Then .32" from 8am to 2pm and another .10" after. That doesn't look even remotely close right now. 0z euro also has a complete washout for Saturday now. With about 1" of rain from 2am to 8pm. Honestly, the euro has overdone the rain for NYC for the last 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Not really. 0z euro had .19" through 8am. Then .32" from 8am to 2pm and another .10" after. That doesn't look even remotely close right now. It got the line of storms correct that just moved through and didn't have that much more today. Notice how the heaviest rain is over after the line passes and you can make out the NE/SW orientation of the line. Most of the rain is too our south now where the Euro has the max down toward the MA today. The Euro was just a little slow with the line that moved through, so there will be less post 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Cant buy a good thunderstorm in s nassau co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 It got the line of storms correct that just moved through and didn't have that much more today. Notice how the heaviest rain is over by 12z and you can make out the NE/SW orientation of the line. Most of the rain is too our south now where the Euro has the max down toward the MA today. North32America_msl_12.gif North32America_msl_24.gif Not sure. The soundings off the 0z euro had .32" after 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Not sure. The soundings off the 0z euro had .32" after 8am. Since we are dealing with convection, the line may have come in faster so there is less post 12z. But it looks like the general signal was that the heaviest rain would be front loaded early today. Obviously its convection, so the amounts are just a rough approximation with much heavier amounts falling across CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Friday and Saturday look tricky with a low cut-off and retrograding to our SW. And possibly Chantal remnants being drawn into it. The Euro is wetter Friday night and Saturday because it brings Chantal's remnants further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Looks like the Tri-State area could see another heat wave Monday through Thursday next week as the Bermuda high strengthens and 850 temps approach 20C. Low to mid 90s for highs along with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 should make it feel uncomfortable and could warrant heat advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Friday and Saturday look tricky with a low cut-off and retrograding to our SW. And possibly Chantal remnants being drawn into it. The Euro is wetter Friday night and Saturday because it brings Chantal's remnants further north. The 00z GGEM was also wet for Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Ever since the big model rain miss with the deep low that cut south of us back in June, model rainfall forecasts have been really overdone beyond the immediate short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Ever since the big model rain miss with the deep low that cut south of us back in June, model rainfall forecasts have been really overdone beyond the immediate short term. Their is another tropical "disturbance" over the Bahamas that is causing problems. The 00z GGEM sucks this up the coast and eventually into the area for the weekend. The 06z GFS keeps this feature offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Ever since the big model rain miss with the deep low that cut south of us back in June, model rainfall forecasts have been really overdone beyond the immediate short term. Very true. I wouldn't trust any model more than 24 hours out with regard to precip..particularly convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Their is another tropical "disturbance" over the Bahamas that is causing problems. The 00z GGEM sucks this up the coast and eventually into the area for the weekend. The 06z GFS keeps this feature offshore. We'll have to see what the 12z models come up with today, but the WAR may be strong enough to suppress the higher rainfall totals to our south the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 We'll have to see what the 12z models come up with today, but the WAR may be strong enough to suppress the higher rainfall totals to our south the next few days. MSLP_North32America_72.gif The 12z NAM is less than an inch areawide for the next four days but it was still more than what the 06z run showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 The 12z NAM is less than an inch areawide for the next four days but it was still more than what the 06z run showed. Yeah barely .25" through Saturday. It hasn't been overly wet this whole week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Their is another tropical "disturbance" over the Bahamas that is causing problems. The 00z GGEM sucks this up the coast and eventually into the area for the weekend. The 06z GFS keeps this feature offshore. Chantal's mid-level vort is moving NW over the SE Bahamas now. The ULL over Florida Strait, is enhancing convection alone and east of surface wave axis, between Cuba and Jamaica. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/flash-wv-long.html 12z GFS still has stronger WAR keep, pushing all this mess to our SW over the weekend. Seems to be the overall model trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Looks like the Tri-State area could see another heat wave Monday through Thursday next week as the Bermuda high strengthens and 850 temps approach 20C. Low to mid 90s for highs along with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 should make it feel uncomfortable and could warrant heat advisories. Argggghhhh! What I wouldn't do for a good 100 degrees with no humidity and no dew point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Argggghhhh! What I wouldn't do for a good 100 degrees with no humidity and no dew point. You have no idea. This soupy, stagnant air needs to go buh-bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 The heat coming next week will be the icing on the cake for the 4 hottest Julys and summers in a row for NYC. I don't think anyone would have predicted this kind of warmth spanning 2010-2013 after the year without a summer in 2009. The heat may be enough for the temperature at Central Park to have a greater monthly departure than we saw last July. This is really unprecedented stuff that we are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 The heat coming next week will be the icing on the cake for the 4 hottest Julys and summers in a row for NYC. I don't think anyone would have predicted this kind of warmth spanning 2010-2013 after the year without a summer in 2009. The heat may be enough for the temperature at Central Park to have a greater monthly departure than we saw last July. This is really unprecedented stuff that we are looking at. Screen shot 2013-07-11 at 3.29.43 PM 15-36-30-199.png While July 2013 is likely to be significantly above average, it will likely be driven by the minimums more than the maximums. Yes, we will have high maximums, but keep in mind that mid-80's are average for this time of year. 2010, 2011, and 2012 were driven by maximums more than minimums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 The heat coming next week will be the icing on the cake for the 4 hottest Julys and summers in a row for NYC. I don't think anyone would have predicted this kind of warmth spanning 2010-2013 after the year without a summer in 2009. The heat may be enough for the temperature at Central Park to have a greater monthly departure than we saw last July. This is really unprecedented stuff that we are looking at. Screen shot 2013-07-11 at 3.29.43 PM 15-36-30-199.png I think it's becoming increasing obvious that 2 or 3 degrees above the 1981-2010 average is the new normal for today's climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 While July 2013 is likely to be significantly above average, it will likely be driven by the minimums more than the maximums. Yes, we will have high maximums, but keep in mind that mid-80's are average for this time of year. 2010, 2011, and 2012 were driven by maximums more than minimums. That's what I posted the other day. But there will be several opportunities for readings above 90 next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 this pattern sort of reminds me of july 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 I think it's becoming increasing obvious that 2 or 3 degrees above the 1981-2010 average is the new normal for today's climate. This will make it 7 out of the last 9 summers above normal since 2005. Probably the best time in history to be working in the air conditioning business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 this pattern sort of reminds me of july 99 Floyd redux hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Very irresponsible to say given the many people who suffered damages in the flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Very irresponsible to say given the many people who suffered damages in the floodThis issue has been rehashed a thousand times. We're weather weenies, most of our desires bring misery and destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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