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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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unofficially 90 for the high today IMBY which would make the 6th day of this heatwave...July is certainly proving to be hot rather than cool like some were thinking about this week

 

Through the 8th, the daily mins are really driving the monthly departure so far for NYC.

 

Max....+2.9

Min.....+6.5

mean..+4.7

 

That last time that we finished July with a + departure driven more by the mins was 2005 and 2006.

2010,2011,2012 were more driven by the highs.

 

2012..Max..+.3.2..Min...+1.5

2011..Max...+4.7..Min...+2.8

2010..Max...+5.9..Min...+3.8

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So far this July looks to be right on par with the past three years.

All that talk of a cooler July seemed fairly exaggerated though there's still 2/3 of the month left.

Highs haven't been very impressive and there's nothing to indicate highs getting to mid 90s or higher for now.

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Through the 8th, the daily mins are really driving the monthly departure so far for NYC.

 

Max....+2.9

Min.....+6.5

mean..+4.7

 

That last time that we finished July with a + departure driven more by the mins was 2005 and 2006.

2010,2011,2012 were more driven by the highs.

 

2012..Max..+.3.2..Min...+1.5

2011..Max...+4.7..Min...+2.8

2010..Max...+5.9..Min...+3.8

 

Nice stats bluewave!.  The max departures are a bit higher for other locations  like EWR, LGA, N Bnswk than the park and much higher starting the 3rd.  But no questions the WAR and southerly humid flow doing its work. 

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Pattern looks warm / above normal through the endof the week before the weekend gets near normal with more heat next week.  Guidance building the WAR west and hooking with the Western ridge really pumping heights 7/ 15 - 7/18, Perhaps we see some stronger heat middle/late next week before next relaxation of ridge. 

 

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So far this July looks to be right on par with the past three years.

All that talk of a cooler July seemed fairly exaggerated though there's still 2/3 of the month left.

Highs haven't been very impressive and there's nothing to indicate highs getting to mid 90s or higher for now.

 

some hint that the period on/around 7/16 could see some stroger heat.  Not sure if July could yield a +3 to +4 but at least through the first half its looking vey warm and much above normal,

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some hint that the period on/around 7/16 could see some stroger heat. Not sure if July could yield a +3 to +4 but at least through the first half its looking vey warm and much above normal,

And it will coincide with the climatological hottest part of the year so that should be interesting.

I think it'll probably be similar to what we've seen though, highs dews, high mins, and a couple places could see 95-97F highs for a day or two.

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Nice stats bluewave!.  The max departures are a bit higher for other locations  like EWR, LGA, N Bnswk than the park and much higher starting the 3rd.  But no questions the WAR and southerly humid flow doing its work. 

 

I agree that the WAR pattern is really at work here. This looks like the strongest April into July WAR that we have

seen here. The ridge axis was to the west of us the last three years at this time.

 

 

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Nice cool shot Fri/Sat on the GFS. Holds temps in the 60s for SNE on both Friday and Saturday. Looks like a cooler couple of days for the area. We'll warm back up early next week but I believe we'll see an increasing frequency of s/w troughs diving into the Northeast for the July 15th-31st period.

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I'll just like to remind some folks that we max out in the mid 80s as highs later in July before falling back down. Upper 80s to 90 day in and day out is not "normal" and will yield us a +4 or +5 just from the high temp departures. Not normal by any stretch of the imagination. Imagine a +4 in January. No one would call it normal. I think a lot of people just got used to above normal summers.

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I'll just like to remind some folks that we max out in the mid 80s as highs later in July before falling back down. Upper 80s to 90 day in and day out is not "normal" and will yield us a +4 or +5 just from the high temp departures. Not normal by any stretch of the imagination. Imagine a +4 in January. No one would call it normal. I think a lot of people just got used to above normal summers.

 

After some of the heat waves we have experienced over the last few years, specifically between late June and mid July, this summer has felt pretty moderated to me.

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Daytime highs have been largely unimpressive but nights have been pretty brutal in terms of mugginess/high humidity. It's been awhile since we've had such a continuous, unabated stretch of 70F+ dew points. My mean max temp for July thus far is 87.1F, just slightly above normal, while my mean min of 72.3F is well above normal.

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I'll just like to remind some folks that we max out in the mid 80s as highs later in July before falling back down. Upper 80s to 90 day in and day out is not "normal" and will yield us a +4 or +5 just from the high temp departures. Not normal by any stretch of the imagination. Imagine a +4 in January. No one would call it normal. I think a lot of people just got used to above normal summers.

But that's just it, it's been like this for several years now so low 90s even seem typical.

It's quite amazing that are highest departure actually could come from the hottest month. You'd think that with lower averages in April or May, those months are more likely to register +3 or +4 if unusual heat arrives.

And we've seen 90s in April.

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I would like a cooler than normal summer. But at this point, I'm just tired of the rain. I'll take heat as long as it means getting rid of the clouds, rain, and humidity. And as I type this post, there goes the rain again. 

 

The heat won't get rid of the humidity. We need a serious disruption in the jetstream wavelength to provide warm and drier days. That usually happens at the end of August, when the sun angle diminishes at a steady pace, which will allow cooler air to flow further south. So yeah, just hold on for at least another month.

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