Chaser25973 Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Any chance of 100 today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 We could see severe storms around the region later today as the upper low ejects east into a very moist and unstable airmass with steeper mid level lapse rates than we have experienced recently. Any thunderstorms could drop torrential downpours with dews 72-75 and PW's approaching 2.00". The models are currently hitting interior zones highest where the best shear is expected to be. So will have to monitor the 12z guidance and radar trends for specifics. laps.gif gfsUS_500_avort_018.gif We have decent shear and mid-level lapse rates. But the shortwave forcing doesn't arrive in our area, until late tonight and tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7, 2013 Author Share Posted July 7, 2013 We have decent shear and mid-level lapse rates. But the shortwave forcing doesn't arrive in our area, until late tonight and tomorrow morning. That's why the models have the highest POPs N and W later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Any chance of 100 today? I dont think so mid/upper 90s should be the limit today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 11AM Roundup TEB: 88NYC: 86EWR: 89LGA: 89JFK: 86ISP: 87New Bnswk: 89TTN: 84 BLM: 88ACY: 87PHL: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 10am temps were almost identical to yesterday. I think we're on track for similar highs. Probably 92F at KNYC, and 95F at EWR, around mid 90s for LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7, 2013 Author Share Posted July 7, 2013 10am temps were almost identical to yesterday. I think we're on track for similar highs. Probably 92F at KNYC, and 95F at EWR, around mid 90s for LGA. This looks like it could be to close to the coolest max for NYC after a low of 80 since 1990. NYC is on track for 92-94 today which is below the coolest 80/95 split on 7-30-02. 7-10-93 is the highest at 80/102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Any chance of 100 today? Not happening, it's the main difference between this July and previous Julys were I don't think we're gonna see those extremes. This time it's all about high mins and very high DPs and humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 This looks to be the coolest max for NYC after a low of 80 since 1990. NYC is on track for low 90's again today which is below the coolest 80/95 split on 7-30-02. 7-10-93 is the highest at 80/102. Nice stat, and this confirms the point that the pattern is more "steam bath" than scorching, in contrast to the past few summers as jetski just pointed out. Usually with min temps that high in NYC, we'd be looking at a mid/upper 90s day on tap. Dew points and wind direction are unfavorable for extreme heat. I think we might see one shot of extreme (95-100F) heat this summer but the best opportunity would be August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7, 2013 Author Share Posted July 7, 2013 Nice stat, and this confirms the point that the pattern is more "steam bath" than scorching, in contrast to the past few summers as jetski just pointed out. Usually with min temps that high in NYC, we'd be looking at a mid/upper 90s day on tap. Dew points and wind direction are unfavorable for extreme heat. I think we might see one shot of extreme (95-100F) heat this summer but the best opportunity would be August. The tendency for lower heights over the Midwest hasn't allowed the extreme heat dome to build there and push into our area. The big 594 dm ridge is too far east this July compared to the last three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 11AM Roundup TEB: 88 NYC: 86 EWR: 89 LGA: 89 JFK: 86 ISP: 87 New Bnswk: 89 TTN: 84 BLM: 88 ACY: 87 PHL: 87 12PM TEB: 90 NYC: 90 EWR: 90 LGA: 91 JFK: 84 ISP: 85 New Bnswk: 89 TTN: 87 BLM: 90 ACY: 86 PHL: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7, 2013 Author Share Posted July 7, 2013 Looks like CU is going up near and north of I-80 corridor where the GFS has the storms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 1pm, LGA is at 93. With a dew of 68 and wsw wind at 9mph. Seems to be only station that can mix it out dews, early in afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Currently 88, down from 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 It looks like they lowered the criteria this year for a heat advisory from a HX of 100-104 last year to 95-100 this year. Maybe they're thinking cooler than last year which won't be hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Maybe they're thinking cooler than last year which won't be hard! I doubt that'd be the reason, unless this sort of change is common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 90/74, for a heat index of 99. Seems like we've been in general or slight risk for a month; my backyard is just barely in the slight and I guess we're watching that line to the southwest. Plenty of sun, hardly any cloud cover today. Could support some good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 This storm looks alot worse then it really is.. A few rumbles of thunder with 5 mins of lgt rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 spc is about ready to issue a new severe ww to the east/northeast of the current one..probably over eastern pa and new jersey where surface based cape is in excess of 4000 joules. its just a matter of waiting for the forcing to arrive. that complex of storms could survive for a while if it doesnt outrun the best forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 spc is about ready to issue a new severe ww to the east/northeast of the current one..probably over eastern pa and new jersey where surface based cape is in excess of 4000 joules. its just a matter of waiting for the forcing to arrive. that complex of storms could survive for a while if it doesnt outrun the best forcing. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0395.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 445 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST MARYLAND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILKESBARRE PENNSYLVANIA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394... DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL PA HAS BEEN PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS FOR PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HART NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN EASTERN UNION ESSEX HUNTERDON MORRIS PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN NYC027-071-079-087-105-111-119-080200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0395.130707T2045Z-130708T0200Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUTCHESS ORANGE PUTNAM ROCKLAND SULLIVAN ULSTER WESTCHESTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 This storm looks alot worse then it really is.. A few rumbles of thunder with 5 mins of lgt rain. I was able to see the tops of the storms over the Hudson Valley and Orange County all the way down here on the south shore. Very impressive anvil tops for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 I was under an excessive heat warning yesterday and today and it never made it above 91. I live to the west of phily, while in Newark nj they have been in the mid nineties with a heat advisory. Excessive heat warning does not make sense especially when you're talking 5 degrees above normal...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 I was able to see the tops of the storms over the Hudson Valley and Orange County all the way down here on the south shore. Very impressive anvil tops for a time. Yeah Considering its presentation on radar I was quite surprised of its lack of precip.. The storm was pretty much over head for about 30 mins too.. Rain today = 0.02" Lets see what this bowing line of storms can produce later on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7, 2013 Author Share Posted July 7, 2013 Today should be another big daily minimum contribution to daily temperature departure at Central Park. 92....+8 80....+12 Through July 6th MAX....+1.6 MIN.....+6.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 It crazy how we hit out highs here in Queens around 6 pm the last few day's when the Sea breeze exits - 89 at 5pm - 95 now at 5:45 Lol the 70 degree Dew Point now feels dry compared to the 76 before the Sea Breeze exited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 lol another severe watch just out of our reach this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 lol another severe watch just out of our reach this year Ir seems like they put them up every other day and the rest of the time excessive heat warnings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 They added Hudson to the watch box in the last hour. Don't think I've ever seen a watch up for Hudson county and not up for NYC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 I was under an excessive heat warning yesterday and today and it never made it above 91. I live to the west of phily, while in Newark nj they have been in the mid nineties with a heat advisory. Excessive heat warning does not make sense especially when you're talking 5 degrees above normal...lol! They don't issue a heat warning for the temp but for the possible heat index. That was expected to be in upper 90s to lower 100s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 New HRRR has some storms getting into NYC later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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