jburns Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Mr Burns is on it and may be under water down at the beach after this week. Things looks very wet and we could have major flooding impacting a lot of people and towns coming this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Should be interesting. Especially along the escarpment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Especially along the escarpment... Don't you mean the falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Don't you mean the falls? Are you in North Myrtle Beach yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Here's a look at the total QPF (through Day 6) on the GFS...the model is doing its usual adjustment as we are getting closer to the event...really giving a broad brush to the entire region with 3 areas of enhancement (Gulf Coast, SC/GA Coast, SoApps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Here's a look at the total QPF (through Day 6) on the GFS...the model is doing its usual adjustment as we are getting closer to the event...really giving a broad brush to the entire region with 3 areas of enhancement (Gulf Coast, SC/GA Coast, SoApps). You can really see from CLT West to the Apps looks like the jackpot for some very pick totals next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Don't you mean the falls? We got plenty of falls, that's for sure. but to answer the question...no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On TWC, they just showed a picture of the possible tornado or funnel cloud whatever that was in North Myrtle Beach . It was sent from Daculawx. Isn't that a member on here? The one with the cool website, or it could be another Daculawx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On TWC, they just showed a picture of the possible tornado or funnel cloud whatever that was in North Myrtle Beach . It was sent from Daculawx. Isn't that a member on here? The one with the cool website, or it could be another Daculawx. Could be our guy. Pretty intense storm though down there. They are going to get hammered with the rain this next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Could be our guy. Pretty intense storm though down there. They are going to get hammered with the rain this next week.Yep, 4th of July us going to be a mess for the SE especially the 3 areas of enhancement shown on the GFS run including your area. That is the only day I'm hoping it doesn't rain. Tomorrow is apparently supposed to be a wet day down here. High is only 85 which is cool for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Yep, 4th of July us going to be a mess for the SE especially the 3 areas of enhancement shown on the GFS run including your area. That is the only day I'm hoping it doesn't rain. Tomorrow is apparently supposed to be a wet day down here. High is only 85 which is cool for June. Ya that is a good bit below average. This is going to be interesting seeing this system play out across the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Here is some info about this week from GSP.UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOMEESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYSSUNDAY...AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THELOW WILL BRING AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERNCAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERSAND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAYTHROUGH MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL BE DURINGTHE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELLINTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FORECAST PATTERN IS VERY CONDUCIVETO LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...THEEXPECTED LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT INDICATES THAT FLASH FLOODINGMAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT AS THE WEEKPROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS WILL FACE SOME THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. FLASHFLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLYNEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Looks like the coast is already dealing with the heavy stroms and the training of rain over the same areas. Durham already has a flash flood warning for them because of a storm that was just inching along. I think we will start to see this a lot more widespread starting today into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA551 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013...PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY......FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED...A STAGNANT... YET VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BRINGINGTOGETHER THE INGREDIENTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW... RICH IN MOISTURE... IS DEVELOPING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVE WEST... THIS PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER GEORGIA AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR IF VERY HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY FALLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION... SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH... HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEK... INCLUDING THOSE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY... SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BEGIN MAKING CONTINGENCY PLANS IN CASE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Are you in North Myrtle Beach yet? No. Heading down this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 The short range models are now in play in regards to model guidance...12z RAP really bullish on our first surge of moisture for later today and into tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 The WPC 5 day precip map shows about 1.50 to 1.75" through Friday for much of Georgia and East Alabama. Doesn't seem like that would create a lot of flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 The WPC 5 day precip map shows about 1.50 to 1.75" through Friday for much of Georgia and East Alabama. Doesn't seem like that would create a lot of flooding issues. Robert is pretty bullish on this first round: Retweeted WXSOUTH (@WxSouth): heavy showers/storms pull due north from #flwx into Georgia/Carolinas tonight #gawx #scwx #ncwx 1" to 3" possible this round … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Also, one of the lead forecasters here in Atlanta had this to say: BY 12Z SUN...STORM TOTAL QPF FROM 00ZGFS/ECMWF INDICATE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN BUT PRIOR EXPERIENCE SAYSWILL SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT ON SMALLER MESO ALPHA SCALE. DO NOTHAVE A GOOD FEELING ABOUT THIS.SNELSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Robert is pretty bullish on this first round: Retweeted WXSOUTH (@WxSouth): heavy showers/storms pull due north from #flwx into Georgia/Carolinas tonight #gawx#scwx#ncwx 1" to 3" possible this round … I'm not sure but my hunch is that he's talking about eastern ga and the Carolina's. Not so much atlanta into eastern al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 I thought this was interesting from the JAX Forecast discussion. ...STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON... .UPDATE... DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN AMAZING 20-25 KNOTS OF 0-6KM STEERING FLOW...WHICH IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JUNE AND HAS BASICALLY SHUT DOWN THE LOCAL SEA-BREEZE REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE DEEP TROPICAL/MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS OF JUST OVER 2 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 I'm not sure but my hunch is that he's talking about eastern ga and the Carolina's. Not so much atlanta into eastern al. He just updated his site... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 this is not looking good for the southern escarpment i've already had 70.20 inches for the year. i can't imagine the flooding if we were to possibly get 5-10 inhes of rain this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 this is not looking good for the southern escarpment i've already had 70.20 inches for the year. i can't imagine the flooding if we were to possibly get 5-10 inhes of rain this week. I've lived here in Western North Carolina my entire life and it still amazes me to this day how your specific area in Transylvania County has such an amazing micro-climate... 70.2 inches of rain would be roughly 2 years worth of rain for McDowell County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 It's raining to beat the band, as my mom would say. I drove from downtown Durham to my house and it rained the entire way, quite heavily most of the time. Radar shows slow moving storms with 1-2" rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Roads already flooding here in Jacksonville NC, this will be a long 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Nothing of note going on here in east-central NC. There was only one cell which was on a trajectory to hit us and it is quickly dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Looks like the train is coming into the station t'nite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Roads already flooding here in Jacksonville NC, this will be a long 3 days Nice, leaving early in the AM for St. Augustine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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